Broncos vs Bills Match Player Stats | Week 19 Sunday 2025

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Broncos vs Bills Match Player Stats | Week 19 Sunday 2025

DEN @ BUF

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 19 Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Todays Game is on Sunday, January 12th
12/01/25 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff

Key Match Player Stats to this Game

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the model to have only 129.3 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

In this week’s contest, Khalil Shakir is forecasted by the model to rank in the 80th percentile among wide receivers with 6.6 targets.

Khalil Shakir has been a more important option in his offense’s air attack this season (22.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (7.8%).

Khalil Shakir has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (36.0 per game) than he did last year (21.0 per game).

The predictive model expects the Bills as the 3rd-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The model projects James Cook to earn 14.0 carries in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile among RBs.

James Cook has grinded out 67.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in football when it comes to RBs (88th percentile).

The Bills O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

With a terrific 7.84 adjusted yards-per-target (82nd percentile) this year, Josh Allen places as one of the best per-play passers in football.

This year, the anemic Denver Broncos defense has surrendered a monstrous 239.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 5th-most in the league.

This week, Dalton Kincaid is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 90th percentile among tight ends with 5.0 targets.

After averaging 36.0 air yards per game last year, Dalton Kincaid has been rising this year, now pacing 45.0 per game.

Dalton Kincaid’s 43.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 35.1.

Our trusted projections expect Jaleel McLaughlin to be a more important option in his team’s run game this week (39.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (26.0% in games he has played).

The Buffalo Bills defensive tackles rank as the 4th-worst DT corps in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Denver Broncos to pass on 60.3% of their downs: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect Courtland Sutton to accumulate 8.9 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.

After accruing 76.0 air yards per game last year, Courtland Sutton has produced significantly more this year, currently sitting at 101.0 per game.

The Denver Broncos O-line profiles as the best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in football vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year (72.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game

With a 8.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on rushing than their standard approach.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bills to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

The Buffalo Bills have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.

Khalil Shakir’s 80.6% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a significant decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last year’s 86.7% rate.

Khalil Shakir’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, accumulating a measly 8.87 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 12.90 rate last year.

This year, the anemic Denver Broncos run defense has conceded a massive 3.95 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 22nd-biggest rate in football.

The projections expect Josh Allen to throw 33.3 passes this week, on balance: the 4th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

The Denver Broncos defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.82 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in football.

Dalton Kincaid’s 61.8% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a noteworthy reduction in his receiving prowess over last season’s 81.6% mark.

The Broncos pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (71.4%) to TEs this year (71.4%).

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Broncos are huge underdogs in this week’s contest, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan.

The projections expect the Broncos to be the 3rd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 39.7% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 63.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.

Jaleel McLaughlin’s 4.3 adjusted yards per carry this season conveys a material drop-off in his rushing skills over last season’s 5.1 mark.

Courtland Sutton’s 61.9% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a significant diminishment in his receiving prowess over last year’s 68.4% rate.

With a bad 2.11 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (9th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton rates as one of the leading wide receivers in the game in the NFL in space.

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