Bills vs Chiefs Match Player Stats | Week 21 Sunday 2025

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Bills vs Chiefs Match Player Stats | Week 21 Sunday 2025

BUF @ KC

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 21 Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Todays Game is on Sunday, January 26th
26/01/25 18:30:00 PM EST Kickoff

Key Match Player Stats to this Game

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.3% of their chances: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Chiefs this year (a monstrous 58.6 per game on average).

With a terrific rate of 263.0 adjusted passing yards per game (92nd percentile), Patrick Mahomes has been as one of the top passers in football this year.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest clip in football against the Buffalo Bills defense this year (73.1% Adjusted Completion%).

The model projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The predictive model expects James Cook to accumulate 14.7 carries this week, on balance, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.

Among all RBs, James Cook ranks in the 85th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 52.3% of the workload in his offense’s ground game.

With an exceptional rate of 71.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (92nd percentile), James Cook places among the leading running backs in the NFL this year.

With an excellent record of 5.23 adjusted yards per carry (89th percentile), James Cook places as one of the leading pure rushers in the NFL this year.

The Chiefs defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (33.3 per game) this year.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

With a stellar 7.80 adjusted yards-per-target (79th percentile) this year, Josh Allen ranks as one of the most efficient QBs in football.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.42 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the most in football.

The leading projections forecast Kareem Hunt to total 10.1 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Kareem Hunt has run for many more adjusted yards per game (57.0) this season than he did last season (29.0).

As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, Buffalo’s unit has been atrocious this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Chiefs profiles as the 5th-best in football this year.

This year, the anemic Bills pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 70.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the biggest rate in football.

In this week’s contest, Travis Kelce is forecasted by the projections to rank in the 100th percentile among TEs with 9.4 targets.

In regards to air yards, Travis Kelce grades out in the lofty 100th percentile among TEs this year, accruing a remarkable 59.0 per game.

Dalton Kincaid has totaled a whopping 44.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among TEs.

Dalton Kincaid’s 42.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 35.7.

This week, Khalil Shakir is expected by our trusted projection set to place in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.9 targets.

Khalil Shakir has been a more integral piece of his team’s pass game this year (22.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (8.3%).

After totaling 23.0 air yards per game last season, Khalil Shakir has produced significantly more this season, currently sitting at 34.0 per game.

Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game

The Bills have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 55.4 plays per game.

Opposing squads have run for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 101.0 per game) versus the Chiefs defense this year.

The Chiefs safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the league this year with their run defense.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bills to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Josh Allen has thrown for many fewer adjusted yards per game (222.0) this year than he did last year (261.0).

The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, conceding 7.51 adjusted yards-per-target: the 7th-fewest in football.

The Chiefs linebackers project as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 36.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect Kareem Hunt to be a less important option in his team’s running game in this week’s contest (41.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.4% in games he has played).

With a terrible tally of 3.73 adjusted yards per carry (14th percentile) this year, Kareem Hunt stands as one of the worst pure rushers in football at the position.

With a lousy total of 2.50 yards after contact (14th percentile) this year, Kareem Hunt ranks among the least efficient running backs in the NFL.

Travis Kelce’s 55.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year illustrates a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last year’s 68.0 rate.

Travis Kelce’s 74.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this year conveys a material decrease in his receiving skills over last year’s 80.1% mark.

Travis Kelce’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, notching just 6.67 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.71 figure last season.

Travis Kelce’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this season, notching just 3.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.75 mark last season.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. TEs this year, giving up 6.73 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in the league.

Dalton Kincaid has notched substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (42.0).

Dalton Kincaid’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 81.6% to 62.0%.

Khalil Shakir’s 80.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a remarkable decline in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 86.7% rate.

Khalil Shakir’s 8.9 adjusted yards per target this year shows a remarkable regression in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 12.9 figure.

This year, the fierce Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a mere 7.7 yards.

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