Bills vs Jaguars Match Player Stats | 2025 NFL Playoffs 19 Sunday

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BUF @ JAX

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 19 Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
Todays Game is on Sunday, January 11th
11/01/26 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff

Positives for the Buffalo Bills Game Today

The Bills will be forced to use backup quarterback Josh Allen in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 124.9 total plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.

The leading projections forecast Dalton Kincaid to accumulate 4.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.

In regards to air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the lofty 88th percentile among TEs this year, totaling an astounding 39.0 per game.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 59.5% of their chances: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

The Jaguars have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 58.9 plays per game.

Brenton Strange has run fewer routes this year (73.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (45.2%).

In this game, Brenton Strange is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.8 targets.

Brenton Strange has accumulated many more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (23.0 per game).

In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the best in the league this year.

Josh Allen’s passing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.7% to 71.1%.

The predictive model expects Travis Etienne to notch 12.7 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.

After making up 43.1% of his offense’s run game usage last year, Travis Etienne has played a bigger part in the rushing attack this year, currently taking on 55.5%.

Travis Etienne has rushed for many more adjusted yards per game (59.0) this season than he did last season (37.0).

This year, the formidable Buffalo Bills run defense has conceded a meager 5.20 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition’s ground game: the 30th-lowest rate in the league.

The projections expect Khalil Shakir to garner 6.6 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Khalil Shakir has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 20.5% this year, which ranks him in the 79th percentile when it comes to WRs.

The predictive model expects the Bills as the 3rd-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.3% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

This week, James Cook is forecasted by the model to finish in the 95th percentile among RBs with 15.6 rush attempts.

James Cook’s 87.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season illustrates a remarkable gain in his running talent over last season’s 68.0 mark.

James Cook’s ground efficiency (5.33 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (93rd percentile among running backs).

This week, Jakobi Meyers is expected by the model to land in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers with 6.9 targets.

Jakobi Meyers comes in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a terrific 69.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.

The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

In tallying a massive 30.1 pass attempts per game this year, Trevor Lawrence rates among the top QBs in the NFL (75th percentile) in this regard.

Trevor Lawrence profiles as one of the best QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a remarkable 214.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.

Negatives with the Jacksonville Jaguars Game Today

The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Dalton Kincaid’s 35.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 43.0.

Dalton Kincaid’s talent in generating extra yardage have declined this year, totaling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.16 rate last year.

This year, the formidable Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a paltry 7.3 yards.

The Jaguars linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.

Brenton Strange’s 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year illustrates a noteable drop-off in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year’s 4.6% figure.

The Bills defense has allowed the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 33.0) vs. tight ends this year.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (66.9%) versus tight ends this year (66.9%).

The model projects Josh Allen to attempt 31.9 passes this week, on balance: the 2nd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

Josh Allen has thrown for many fewer adjusted yards per game (211.0) this season than he did last season (237.0).

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in the NFL against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (67.5% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the tough Jaguars defense has allowed the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing squads: a measly 7.0 yards.

Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 2nd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 40.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Khalil Shakir has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (36.0 per game).

Khalil Shakir’s 42.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season reflects a material regression in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 56.0 figure.

Khalil Shakir’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this year, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 7.82 figure last year.

This year, the daunting Jaguars defense has surrendered a meager 61.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.

While James Cook has received 63.5% of his offense’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Buffalo’s run game in this week’s contest at 53.4%.

Opposing offenses have run for the fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 87.0 per game) against the Jaguars defense this year.

When it comes to the linebackers’ role in run defense, Jacksonville’s group of LBs has been terrific this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

After totaling 82.0 air yards per game last year, Jakobi Meyers has seen a big downtick this year, currently sitting at 65.0 per game.

Jakobi Meyers’s 52.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 61.2.

Jakobi Meyers has accumulated substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (46.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).

With a bad 60.5% Adjusted Completion% (16th percentile) this year, Trevor Lawrence places as one of the worst precision passers in football.

Opposing QBs have passed for the 2nd-fewest yards in the NFL (just 172.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

This year, the daunting Bills defense has allowed a paltry 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-smallest rate in football.

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