Patriots vs Bills Match Player Stats | Week 5 Sunday 2025

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NE @ BUF

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 5 New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Todays Game is on Sunday, October 5th
05/10/25 20:20:00 PM EST Kickoff

Positives for the New England Patriots Game Today

The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 58.8 plays per game.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Josh Allen’s passing accuracy has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.7% to 70.9%.

With a stellar 8.25 adjusted yards-per-target (88th percentile) this year, Josh Allen stands as one of the best per-play QBs in the league.

This year, the weak Patriots defense has conceded a massive 250.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 7th-most in the league.

The predictive model expects the Bills as the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 46.1% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect James Cook to earn 17.5 rush attempts this week, on balance, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.

James Cook’s 83.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season illustrates a material gain in his running ability over last season’s 68.0 rate.

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are giant underdogs this week, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their standard game plan.

Right now, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.8% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.

The Patriots offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Bills defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the 5th-most in the NFL.

When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Buffalo’s unit has been terrible this year, profiling as the 9th-worst in the league.

Negatives with the Buffalo Bills Game Today

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Bills being a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to pass on 53.9% of their chances: the 5th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see only 126.2 plays on offense called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.

In this contest, Josh Allen is predicted by the projection model to have the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 32.1.,Josh Allen’s 200.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season indicates a remarkable reduction in his throwing skills over last season’s 237.0 mark.

Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 79.0 per game) against the Patriots defense this year.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 10th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Patriots this year (a measly 54.8 per game on average).

Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 27.0 per game) this year.

Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the fewest yards in the NFL (just 149.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Bills defense this year.

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