
DEN @ KC






Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Sunday, November 10th
10/11/24 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff
Key Match Player Stats to this Game
This game’s line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Broncos, who are enormous -8-point underdogs.
With a 62.1% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football has been the Denver Broncos.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see 130.6 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.
The leading projections forecast Courtland Sutton to earn 8.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
After accumulating 76.0 air yards per game last year, Courtland Sutton has shown good development this year, now sitting at 97.0 per game.
The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.9% pass rate.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 66.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 61.0 per game on average).
Patrick Mahomes has attempted 35.8 passes per game this year, checking in at the 91st percentile among quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Among all RBs, Javonte Williams ranks in the 79th percentile for carries this year, taking on 45.0% of the workload in his team’s run game.
In this contest, Travis Kelce is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 8.0 targets.
In regards to air yards, Travis Kelce grades out in the towering 99th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling an astounding 58.0 per game.
The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game
Courtland Sutton’s 56.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year marks a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 68.4% mark.
Courtland Sutton’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, averaging just 8.36 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.61 mark last year.
Courtland Sutton rates as one of the bottom wide receivers in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.72 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 117.0) to WRs this year.
This year, the formidable Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a puny 7.1 yards.
With a 8-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (249.0) this season than he did last season (274.0).
This year, the imposing Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a puny 7.2 yards.
The Denver Broncos defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in football.
The Broncos safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
With a 37.9% rate of rushing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-least run-centric offense in the league has been the Denver Broncos.
Javonte Williams’s ground efficiency (3.86 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (17th percentile among running backs).
With an awful total of 2.42 yards after contact (6th percentile) this year, Javonte Williams ranks among the least powerful running backs in the league.
This year, the weak Chiefs run defense has yielded a monstrous 3.71 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 31st-worst rate in football.
Travis Kelce has compiled a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (55.0) this year than he did last year (68.0).
Travis Kelce’s 6.7 adjusted yards per target this season marks a substantial diminishment in his receiving ability over last season’s 8.7 figure.
Travis Kelce’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this year, averaging just 3.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.75 mark last year.
The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the 9th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 42.0) versus tight ends this year.
The Chiefs pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, conceding 7.30 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-fewest in football.
The Kansas City defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to pass rush.
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