Bills vs Jaguars Match Player Stats | Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills Week 3 Monday

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Bills vs Jaguars Match Player Stats | Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills Week 3 Monday

JAX @ BUF

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 3 Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Todays Game is on Monday, September 23rd
23/09/24 19:30:00 PM EST Kickoff

Key Match Player Stats to this Game

A passing game script is implied by the Jaguars being a -4.5-point underdog in this week’s game.

Right now, the 5th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (62.7% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The projections expect Christian Kirk to earn 6.9 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Christian Kirk has been an integral part of his team’s passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 19.8% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 77th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Christian Kirk comes in as one of the top wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 56.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.

Trevor Lawrence has attempted 33.3 passes per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 80th percentile among QBs.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in the league versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season (72.8% Adjusted Completion%).

When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Buffalo’s collection of LBs has been terrible since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in the league.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.

The projections expect Khalil Shakir to be a much bigger part of his team’s air attack this week (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.7% in games he has played).

The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Khalil Shakir has been one of the best possession receivers in the NFL, catching a fantastic 87.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 94th percentile among wideouts.

With an exceptional 13.1 adjusted yards per target (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the leading WRs in the game in the league.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bills to run on 46.3% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week.

In this game, James Cook is predicted by the model to land in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.4 rush attempts.

James Cook has received 57.8% of his offense’s rushing play calls this year, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs.

With a terrific tally of 68.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (93rd percentile), James Cook places among the top pure rushers in the league since the start of last season.

In this contest, Travis Etienne is expected by the model to find himself in the 77th percentile among RBs with 13.1 carries.

Travis Etienne has picked up 58.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league when it comes to RBs (84th percentile).

Travis Etienne’s 4.5 adjusted yards per carry this season indicates a noteable progression in his running skills over last season’s 3.7 rate.

Since the start of last season, the tough Bills run defense has given up a paltry 4.60 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 23rd-lowest rate in the league.

The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to earn 5.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to tight ends.

With an impressive 17.0% Target Rate (88th percentile) since the start of last season, Dalton Kincaid has been among the TEs with the most usage in the league.

Dalton Kincaid has accrued a massive 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among TEs.

With a terrific 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (86th percentile) since the start of last season, Dalton Kincaid places among the leading tight ends in the pass game in the league.

The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars since the start of last season (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).

Gabriel Davis has run a route on 89.7% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 85th percentile among WRs.

Gabriel Davis is positioned as one of the most effective receivers in the league, averaging a terrific 10.36 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.

In this week’s game, Brenton Strange is expected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 80th percentile among TEs with 4.4 targets.

While Brenton Strange has been responsible for 3.4% of his offense’s targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Jacksonville’s pass game in this contest at 13.5%.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (75.7%) to TEs since the start of last season (75.7%).

With a terrific total of 248.0 adjusted passing yards per game (83rd percentile), Josh Allen stands as one of the leading QBs in football since the start of last season.

Josh Allen is positioned as one of the most accurate QBs in the NFL since the start of last season with a stellar 67.7% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.

With an excellent 7.82 adjusted yards-per-target (94th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Allen ranks among the most effective passers in the NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills Negative Match Player Stats

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 60.7 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.

Since the start of last season, the formidable Buffalo Bills defense has conceded a puny 120.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 5th-best in the NFL.

Since the start of last season, the formidable Bills pass defense has allowed the least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wide receivers: a feeble 3.3 YAC.

The Bills defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.83 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-fewest in football.

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week’s contest, indicating more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the model to have just 123.5 offensive plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 9th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 40.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Travis Etienne has been a much smaller piece of his team’s running game this season (53.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (63.7%).

Since the start of last season, the strong Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded a measly 66.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 2nd-best rate in the league.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 60.5 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.

With a weak 51.4% Adjusted Catch Rate (21st percentile) this year, Brenton Strange stands among the worst possession receivers in the league among TEs.

Since the start of last season, the strong Bills pass defense has given up the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing tight ends: a paltry 4.1 YAC.

In this week’s game, Josh Allen is projected by our trusted projection set to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 31.8.

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