TNF: Dolphins vs Bills Match Player Stats | Week 3 Thursday 2025

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MIA @ BUF

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 3 Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Todays Game is on Thursday, September 18th
18/09/25 20:15:00 PM EST Kickoff

Positives for the Miami Dolphins Game Today

An extreme running game script is implied by the Bills being a massive 12.5-point favorite in this game.

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects James Cook to total 14.8 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.

James Cook has received 54.8% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 86th percentile among RBs.

With a fantastic total of 71.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (92nd percentile), James Cook stands among the leading running backs in the NFL since the start of last season.

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a big -12.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 37.1 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.

With a stellar tally of 259.0 adjusted passing yards per game (88th percentile), Tua Tagovailoa stands as one of the leading passers in the NFL since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the feeble Bills defense has yielded a colossal 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 10th-biggest rate in the NFL.

The model projects De’Von Achane to notch 12.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile when it comes to running backs.

While De’Von Achane has accounted for 47.9% of his team’s run game usage in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be a more important option in Miami’s rushing attack in this game at 62.6%.

De’Von Achane has averaged 47.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (75th percentile).

Since the start of last season, the fierce Bills run defense has yielded a puny 4.70 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition’s run game: the 25th-best rate in football.

The Bills linebackers profile as the worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

In this week’s game, Dalton Kincaid is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.1 targets.

With an extraordinary 19.1% Target% (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Dalton Kincaid has been among the TEs with the most usage in football.

When it comes to air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing an impressive 43.0 per game.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Dalton Kincaid rates as one of the top pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 37.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

Since the start of last season, the deficient Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered a staggering 70.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-largest rate in football.

The Dolphins cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-worst CB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

Josh Allen rates as one of the top passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 242.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.

Josh Allen’s 68.2% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a meaningful progression in his passing precision over last year’s 64.7% rate.

With a stellar 7.92 adjusted yards-per-target (79th percentile) this year, Josh Allen ranks as one of the most effective quarterbacks in football.

Since the start of last season, the poor Miami Dolphins defense has been torched for a staggering 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

The predictive model expects Tyreek Hill to accumulate 8.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.

When it comes to air yards, Tyreek Hill grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accumulating an impressive 89.0 per game.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.1%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (70.1%).

Negatives with the Buffalo Bills Game Today

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins linebackers project as the 5th-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by our trusted projection set to run only 60.6 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins grades out as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to run on 33.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.

The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Dolphins defense has allowed the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 127.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.

In this week’s contest, Josh Allen is expected by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.5.,Tyreek Hill’s ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this year, accumulating a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.53 mark last year.

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