
NYJ @ BUF



Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Sunday, December 29th
29/12/24 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff
Key Match Player Stats to this Game
In this week’s game, Khalil Shakir is projected by the predictive model to find himself in the 77th percentile among wide receivers with 6.7 targets.
Khalil Shakir has been much more involved in his team’s pass game this year (23.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (7.8%).
Khalil Shakir has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (32.0 per game) than he did last year (21.0 per game).
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Bills ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year.
Khalil Shakir has accumulated significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (36.0).
Our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the 6th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 46.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
James Cook has averaged 68.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (88th percentile).
James Cook’s ground efficiency (5.21 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (86th percentile among running backs).
Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game
An extreme running game script is implied by the Bills being a heavy 9.5-point favorite this week.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have just 126.6 offensive plays run: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.
Khalil Shakir’s 9.4 adjusted yards per target this year reflects an impressive regression in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 12.9 figure.
This year, the daunting New York Jets defense has given up a puny 62.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 8th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Bills this year (a measly 54.3 per game on average).
The predictive model expects James Cook to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s run game this week (42.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.4% in games he has played).
This year, the deficient New York Jets run defense has been gouged for a colossal 4.39 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing rushing attacks: the 23rd-biggest rate in the league.
When it comes to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, New York’s group of LBs has been excellent this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL.
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