Bills vs Patriots Match Player Stats | Week 15 Sunday 2025

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BUF @ NE

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 15 Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Todays Game is on Sunday, December 14th
14/12/25 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff

Positives for the Buffalo Bills Game Today

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (63.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the New England Patriots.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.

As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Buffalo’s group of CBs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in football.

When it comes to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the best in football this year.

With a terrific total of 224.0 adjusted passing yards per game (78th percentile), Josh Allen places among the best QBs in the league this year.

Josh Allen’s 71.2% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a significant boost in his throwing precision over last year’s 64.7% figure.

Josh Allen profiles as one of the most efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 8.30 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has given up a whopping 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-worst rate in football.

The model projects James Cook to accrue 18.9 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.

James Cook has been much more involved in his team’s ground game this season (66.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (50.9%).

James Cook’s 95.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season indicates a substantial improvement in his running skills over last season’s 68.0 mark.

With an impressive total of 5.34 adjusted yards per carry (90th percentile), James Cook ranks among the top RBs in the NFL this year.

The Patriots defensive ends grade out as the worst group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Our trusted projections expect Dalton Kincaid to notch 4.9 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.

As it relates to air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a massive 42.0 per game.

Dalton Kincaid has put up a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (47.0) this season than he did last season (36.0).

This year, the deficient Patriots defense has conceded a monstrous 61.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 10th-most in football.

The predictive model expects Hunter Henry to earn 5.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among TEs.

In regards to air yards, Hunter Henry ranks in the lofty 95th percentile among TEs this year, averaging a striking 43.0 per game.

Hunter Henry ranks as one of the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 47.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

Our trusted projections expect Khalil Shakir to accumulate 7.1 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.

Khalil Shakir has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 20.2% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.

Khalil Shakir comes in as one of the best possession receivers in football, catching a stellar 78.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among wideouts.

This year, the poor Patriots pass defense has been torched for a colossal 66.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 9th-highest rate in the NFL.

The opposing side have run for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (134 per game) vs. the Bills defense this year.

The Bills safeties grade out as the 30th-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

In this week’s contest, Stefon Diggs is forecasted by the projections to position himself in the 75th percentile among wide receivers with 6.7 targets.

Stefon Diggs has been one of the best WRs in the game this year, averaging a terrific 54.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.

Stefon Diggs’s ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 73.7% to 82.6%.

Negatives with the New England Patriots Game Today

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.

This year, the stout Buffalo Bills defense has allowed a puny 188.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best in football.

This year, the strong Bills defense has allowed a mere 66.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see only 124.1 offensive plays called: the fewest on the slate this week.

In this game, Josh Allen is anticipated by the model to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.0.,The New England Patriots linebackers grade out as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

This year, the tough New England Patriots run defense has conceded a mere 85.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the fewest in football.

Dalton Kincaid’s 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 43.0.

Dalton Kincaid’s 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a noteable reduction in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year’s 6.2% figure.

Hunter Henry’s 38.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 44.2.

Hunter Henry’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 75.1% to 70.5%.

Hunter Henry’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this season, notching a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.06 figure last season.

Khalil Shakir has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (23.0 per game) than he did last season (36.0 per game).

Khalil Shakir has accrued substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (43.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).

Khalil Shakir’s talent in picking up extra yardage have declined this season, totaling a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.82 rate last season.

At the present time, the 5th-least run-centric offense in football (36.4% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.

Stefon Diggs has put up quite a few less air yards this season (53.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).

Stefon Diggs’s 46.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 53.8.

Stefon Diggs’s 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates an impressive drop-off in his efficiency in space over last season’s 3.9% rate.

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