Dolphins vs Bills Match Player Stats | Week 9 Sunday 2024

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Dolphins vs Bills Match Player Stats | Week 9 Sunday 2024

MIA @ BUF

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 9 Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Todays Game is on Sunday, November 3rd
03/11/24 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff

Key Match Player Stats to this Game

A passing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.

The Miami Dolphins have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 62.6 plays per game.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast Jonnu Smith to total 5.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.

When talking about air yards, Jonnu Smith grades out in the lofty 83rd percentile among TEs this year, accumulating a striking 26.0 per game.

In this week’s contest, Tyreek Hill is expected by the projection model to find himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.0 targets.

Tyreek Hill has been one of the best wideouts in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging an excellent 5.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 79th percentile.

With a remarkable rate of 274.0 adjusted passing yards per game (96th percentile), Tua Tagovailoa rates among the top quarterbacks in football since the start of last season.

This year, the porous Buffalo Bills defense has conceded a monstrous 240.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-most in the NFL.

This week, Dalton Kincaid is predicted by the predictive model to position himself in the 93rd percentile among TEs with 6.3 targets.

After accruing 36.0 air yards per game last year, Dalton Kincaid has seen a big uptick this year, currently sitting at 43.0 per game.

Dalton Kincaid’s 44.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 35.1.

Dalton Kincaid grades out as one of the best TE receiving threats this year, averaging an exceptional 39.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.

Dalton Kincaid’s talent in picking up extra yardage have improved this year, compiling 6.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 4.32 mark last year.

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 10th-most run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 40.8% run rate.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to run on 46.2% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast James Cook to earn 13.1 carries in this week’s game, on balance, putting him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.

James Cook has averaged 59.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (79th percentile).

Josh Allen has been one of the most efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 7.96 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 81st percentile.

The Dolphins safeties grade out as the 5th-worst safety corps in football this year in defending receivers.

Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game

Right now, the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Miami Dolphins.

The predictive model expects this game to play at the 15th-slowest tempo on the slate this week, averaging 28.01 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Jonnu Smith has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (52.1% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (62.1%).

As it relates to pass protection (and the impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Miami Dolphins grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.

Jonnu Smith’s talent in picking up extra yardage have declined this year, notching a mere 5.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 7.14 rate last year.

Tyreek Hill has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (90.0 per game) than he did last season (113.0 per game).

Tyreek Hill’s 62.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 77.5.

The projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 33.2 passes in this game, on balance: the 8th-fewest among all QBs.

Tua Tagovailoa’s 60.8% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a noteable diminishment in his passing accuracy over last season’s 69.6% figure.

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their standard game plan.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bills to pass on 53.8% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, the projections expect this game (with an average of 28.01 seconds per play) will chug along at the 15th-worst pace on the slate this week.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 52.5 plays per game.

Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Dolphins, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 27.5 per game) this year.

Devon Achane’s 54.1% snap rate this season conveys a meaningful growth in his offensive utilization over last season’s 41.2% mark.

Devon Achane’s 37.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year marks a remarkable decline in his rushing talent over last year’s 69.0 mark.

Devon Achane’s 3.1 adjusted yards per carry this year shows an impressive regression in his running skills over last year’s 7.3 figure.

The projections expect James Cook to be a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack this week (46.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (59.7% in games he has played).

The Miami Dolphins defensive ends rank as the 9th-best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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