Christmas Day: Broncos vs Chiefs Match Player Stats | Week 17 Thursday 2025

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DEN @ KC

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 17 Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Todays Game is on Thursday, December 25th
25/12/25 20:15:00 PM EST Kickoff

Positives for the Denver Broncos Game Today

The Chiefs will be rolling with backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

This game’s line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Chiefs, who are heavy -13-point underdogs.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs as the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see 135.8 offensive plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.

The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.6 per game) this year.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 135.8 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.

The Denver Broncos have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

The model projects Courtland Sutton to notch 7.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.

When talking about air yards, Courtland Sutton ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs this year, averaging a monstrous 103.0 per game.

The Denver Broncos O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a monstrous 59.3 per game on average).

When it comes to the defensive ends’ role in stopping the run, Denver’s group of DEs has been lousy this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in football versus the Chiefs defense this year (75.2% Adjusted Completion%).

The model projects the Broncos as the 9th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 45.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

In this week’s contest, Evan Engram is forecasted by the model to rank in the 77th percentile among TEs with 4.5 targets.

This year, the poor Chiefs pass defense has conceded a massive 85.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the largest rate in football.

Negatives with the Kansas City Chiefs Game Today

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Broncos defense this year (66.1% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the fierce Broncos defense has given up the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a puny 7.2 yards.

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Denver’s LB corps has been terrific this year, profiling as the 10th-best in the league.

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Broncos being a massive 13-point favorite in this week’s contest.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Denver Broncos to pass on 54.6% of their plays: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.

Courtland Sutton’s 57.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 68.1.

Courtland Sutton’s 56.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season represents a substantial regression in his receiving talent over last season’s 73.0 rate.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 34.2% of their plays: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

Kareem Hunt’s 40.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season represents a material decline in his rushing proficiency over last season’s 58.0 rate.

The opposing side have run for the fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 89.0 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.

Opposing offenses have passed for the 9th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 215.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

The Kansas City cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The opposing side have run for the 7th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 102.0 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

The Chiefs linebackers grade out as the best unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

Evan Engram’s 13.1% Target Rate this season marks a material decrease in his passing game usage over last season’s 25.0% mark.

Evan Engram has compiled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (40.0).

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