Bills vs Falcons Match Player Stats | Week 6 Monday 2025

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BUF @ ATL

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 6 Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons
Todays Game is on Monday, October 13th
13/10/25 19:15:00 PM EST Kickoff

Positives for the Buffalo Bills Game Today

This game will be played in a dome,—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The model projects Khalil Shakir to notch 7.1 targets in this week’s game, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

The Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass game stats across the board.

Khalil Shakir ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in a terrific 82.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

Khalil Shakir comes in as one of the most efficient receivers in football, averaging an impressive 9.77 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 77th percentile among wideouts.

Josh Allen checks in as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 214.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.

Josh Allen’s passing precision has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.7% to 70.9%.

Josh Allen is positioned as one of the best per-play passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 8.43 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 91st percentile.

The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 43.2% run rate.

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Falcons this year (a staggering 61.8 per game on average).

This week, Bijan Robinson is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 82nd percentile among RBs with 14.8 carries.

Among all running backs, Bijan Robinson ranks in the 86th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 56.8% of the workload in his offense’s run game.

The Buffalo Bills defense owns the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing 5.42 adjusted yards-per-carry.

The projections expect Dalton Kincaid to total 5.5 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Dalton Kincaid has accumulated a monstrous 47.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Dalton Kincaid has been in the 91st percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with a whopping 39.0 mark this year.

Kyle Pitts’s 90.1% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a material progression in his pass attack workload over last season’s 75.7% rate.

In this contest, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by the predictive model to position himself in the 93rd percentile among TEs with 5.8 targets.

The Atlanta O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.

The Bills cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The leading projections forecast Drake London to earn 9.2 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bills to run on 43.9% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.

In this game, James Cook is forecasted by the predictive model to land in the 84th percentile among running backs with 15.7 rush attempts.

With an outstanding tally of 76.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (96th percentile), James Cook ranks among the best running backs in football this year.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Falcons run defense has surrendered a meager 4.77 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 25th-lowest rate in football.

Negatives with the Atlanta Falcons Game Today

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to have only 123.5 offensive plays called: the fewest among all games this week.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Falcons, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (just 27.0 per game) this year.

Khalil Shakir has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (23.0 per game) than he did last year (36.0 per game).

This week, Josh Allen is projected by the projection model to average the 7th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 33.0.,The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

The predictive model expects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 123.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

Bijan Robinson has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (81.0).

Dalton Kincaid’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this season, notching a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.16 mark last season.

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Falcons.

Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.

Kyle Pitts’s 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates a significant decline in his efficiency in the open field over last season’s 5.0% rate.

The Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 25.0) versus tight ends this year.

This year, the imposing Buffalo Bills defense has given up a feeble 174.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-fewest in football.

After averaging 102.0 air yards per game last year, Drake London has regressed heavily this year, currently pacing 78.0 per game.

Drake London has put up a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (51.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).

As it relates to the safeties’ role in stopping the run, Atlanta’s collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.

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