TNF: Bills vs Texans Match Player Stats | Week 12 Thursday 2025

|

BUF @ HOU

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans Week 12Bills vs TexansBills vs TexansBills vs TexansBills vs TexansBills vs TexansBills vs Texans

Todays Matchup Details

Week 12 Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Todays Game is on Thursday, November 20th
20/11/25 20:15:00 PM EST Kickoff

Positives for the Buffalo Bills Game Today

The Houston Texans may throw the ball less in this game (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be forced to start backup QB Davis Mills.

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs in this week’s contest, suggesting more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Houston Texans to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

In terms of a defense’s impact on pace, at 27.22 seconds per play, the projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-quickest in football (context-neutralized) right now.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored this week, implying more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.

In this game, James Cook is forecasted by the model to rank in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 18.4 carries.

James Cook has been much more involved in his offense’s rushing attack this year (66.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (50.9%).

James Cook has run for a lot more adjusted yards per game (89.0) this season than he did last season (68.0).

James Cook’s rushing effectiveness (5.36 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (95th percentile among running backs).

In this contest, Dawson Knox is predicted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.6 targets.

While Dawson Knox has received 7.0% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Buffalo’s offense in this game at 14.3%.

When talking about pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

With an excellent 9.3 adjusted yards per target (85th percentile) this year, Dawson Knox rates as one of the best pass-game TEs in the league.

Josh Allen’s throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.7% to 69.7%.

Josh Allen rates as one of the most effective QBs in football this year, averaging a fantastic 8.35 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (150 per game) vs. the Bills defense this year.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

Our trusted projections expect Khalil Shakir to total 7.6 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Khalil Shakir has been a key part of his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 20.6% this year, which ranks in the 77th percentile among wideouts.

With a remarkable 78.1% Adjusted Catch% (95th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir ranks as one of the best possession receivers in the league among wideouts.

Negatives with the Houston Texans Game Today

Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.

Dalton Schultz’s 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a noteworthy reduction in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year’s 3.9% figure.

The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 32.0) to tight ends this year.

This year, the tough Buffalo Bills defense has allowed a measly 70.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 6th-lowest rate in football.

At the moment, the slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Buffalo Bills.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

This year, the tough Texans run defense has yielded a mere 85.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 2nd-fewest in the league.

When it comes to the linebackers’ role in defending against the run, Houston’s LB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

Nico Collins’s 64.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year conveys a significant drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 75.0 rate.

Nico Collins’s receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 67.1% to 61.4%.

Nico Collins’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this season, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.18 figure last season.

With a poor 59.0% Adjusted Completion% (23rd percentile) this year, Davis Mills places as one of the least on-target passers in football.

This year, the strong Buffalo Bills defense has conceded a feeble 184.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-best in football.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in football against the Buffalo Bills defense this year (67.1% Adjusted Completion%).

Dawson Knox’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 70.5% to 65.2%.

Dawson Knox’s talent in picking up extra yardage have tailed off this season, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.27 figure last season.

The Texans defense has conceded the 7th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 44.0) to TEs this year.

This year, the strong Texans defense has conceded a puny 181.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the best in the league.

The Houston Texans pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, yielding 6.53 adjusted yards-per-target: the fewest in the NFL.

The Houston cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 7th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Khalil Shakir has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (36.0 per game).

Khalil Shakir has put up a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (42.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).

The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 111.0) versus wideouts this year.

Latest Houston Texans Matches

Latest Buffalo Bills Matches