Saints at Chiefs Match Player Stats | Week 5 Monday 2024

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Saints at Chiefs Match Player Stats | Week 5 Monday 2024

NO @ KC

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs Week 5Saints vs ChiefsSaints vs ChiefsSaints vs ChiefsSaints vs ChiefsSaints vs ChiefsSaints vs Chiefs

Todays Matchup Details

Week 5 New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs
Todays Game is on Monday, October 7th
07/10/24 20:15:00 PM EST Kickoff

Key Match Player Stats to this Game

This week’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Saints, who are huge -8-point underdogs.

The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.2 per game) this year.

The model projects Juwan Johnson to garner 3.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Juwan Johnson’s ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 64.1% to 77.4%.

At the present time, the most pass-focused team in the NFL (66.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.

Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume.

The Saints defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.8 per game) this year.

Travis Kelce has run a route on 88.2% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

In this contest, Travis Kelce is projected by the projections to land in the 100th percentile among TEs with 7.7 targets.

Our trusted projections expect Kareem Hunt to be much more involved in his offense’s running game this week (48.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (34.8% in games he has played).

The Saints defensive tackles grade out as the worst collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Right now, the 4th-most run-heavy offense in football (44.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.

In this week’s game, Alvin Kamara is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 98th percentile among running backs with 19.4 rush attempts.

After comprising 53.6% of his team’s carries last year, Alvin Kamara has played a bigger part in the run game this year, currently comprising 67.9%.

Alvin Kamara has run for a lot more adjusted yards per game (95.0) this season than he did last season (57.0).

Derek Carr’s 71.5% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a significant gain in his passing precision over last season’s 67.2% rate.

Derek Carr ranks as one of the best per-play passers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.54 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 76th percentile.

The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

The Saints defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 6th-most in football.

In this week’s contest, Chris Olave is forecasted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 91st percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.3 targets.

Chris Olave profiles as one of the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an exceptional 69.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.

Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Saints to pass on 56.8% of their opportunities: the lowest rate on the slate this week.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Saints are projected by the predictive model to run just 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.

After totaling 37.0 air yards per game last year, Juwan Johnson has been a disappointment this year, currently sitting at 7.0 per game.

When talking about pass protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the worst in the league this year.

With a 8-point advantage, the Chiefs are overwhelmingly favored in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.

The projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chiefs have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game.

Travis Kelce has put up quite a few less air yards this year (47.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).

Travis Kelce’s 36.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season illustrates a meaningful diminishment in his receiving prowess over last season’s 68.0 figure.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 41.8% of their downs: the lowest clip on the slate this week.

Kareem Hunt’s ground effectiveness (3.33 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (10th percentile when it comes to RBs).

Opposing offenses have run for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 92.0 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense this year.

Alvin Kamara comes in as one of the bottom RBs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.26 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 17th percentile.

The Chiefs defense has had the 4th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, giving up just 3.72 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

In this week’s contest, Derek Carr is expected by the projection model to have the fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 32.7. , Derek Carr has thrown for many fewer adjusted yards per game (188.0) this year than he did last year (221.0).

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (224.0) this season than he did last season (274.0).

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the league against the New Orleans Saints defense this year (66.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Chris Olave has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (61.0 per game) than he did last season (125.0 per game).

Since the start of last season, the fierce Chiefs defense has surrendered a paltry 61.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 6th-best rate in the league.

This year, the tough Saints defense has allowed a puny 59.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.

The Saints pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, yielding 6.95 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in the league.

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