
KC @ PIT







Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Wednesday, December 25th
25/12/24 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff
Key Match Player Stats to this Game
A throwing game script is indicated by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog this week.
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Steelers this year (a colossal 59.4 per game on average).
Pat Freiermuth’s 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year marks a substantial boost in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 29.0 mark.
This year, the feeble Kansas City Chiefs defense has been gouged for a staggering 68.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the worst in the league.
A rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.4 per game on average).
Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
This year, the shaky Chiefs pass defense has conceded a whopping 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 9th-highest rate in the league.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This year, the porous Steelers defense has allowed the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a colossal 8.67 yards.
Our trusted projections expect Travis Kelce to total 8.4 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to run on 44.8% of their downs: the 10th-highest rate on the slate this week.
With a stellar rate of 259.0 adjusted passing yards per game (87th percentile), Patrick Mahomes stands as one of the top QBs in the NFL this year.
Russell Wilson’s 245.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies a meaningful progression in his throwing skills over last season’s 208.0 mark.
Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game
The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Kansas City’s collection of LBs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to run on 37.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Isiah Pacheco to be a less important option in his offense’s running game in this week’s contest (45.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.0% in games he has played).
Isiah Pacheco has run for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (53.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 95.0 per game) against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus WRs this year, giving up 7.80 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.
Travis Kelce has posted substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (54.0) this season than he did last season (68.0).
Travis Kelce’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 80.1% to 74.4%.
Travis Kelce’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, compiling just 6.62 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.71 mark last season.
This year, the daunting Pittsburgh Steelers defense has given up the 9th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a mere 6.8 yards.
Jaylen Warren has run for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (30.0) this year than he did last year (42.0).
Jaylen Warren’s ground effectiveness has worsened this year, totaling a mere 3.94 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.75 rate last year.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 91.0 per game) vs. the Chiefs defense this year.
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