
NYJ @ MIA







Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Sunday, December 8th
08/12/24 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff
Key Match Player Stats to this Game
Tua Tagovailoa has attempted 35.1 throws per game this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile when it comes to QBs.
Tua Tagovailoa rates as one of the top quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a stellar 273.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.
Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 69.6% to 74.7%.
Tua Tagovailoa is positioned as one of the best per-play quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a fantastic 7.84 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 79th percentile.
The predictive model expects Tyreek Hill to accrue 7.3 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
This week, Jonnu Smith is anticipated by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile among tight ends with 7.3 targets.
After accumulating 25.0 air yards per game last season, Jonnu Smith has made big progress this season, now averaging 34.0 per game.
Jonnu Smith’s 39.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 28.8.
Jonnu Smith’s 52.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year indicates a substantial improvement in his receiving skills over last year’s 34.0 rate.
Jonnu Smith’s 80.6% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a noteworthy boost in his receiving ability over last year’s 71.6% figure.
At a -6-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 63.1% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
In this game, Davante Adams is forecasted by the model to slot into the 92nd percentile among WRs with 9.7 targets.
The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Davante Adams grades out as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 66.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.
The model projects Aaron Rodgers to throw 37.2 passes in this week’s game, on balance: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
This year, the feeble Miami Dolphins defense has yielded the 7th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing squads: a staggering 5.23 YAC.
The Dolphins have been the 9th-most run-focused team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 42.1% run rate.
After making up 31.2% of his team’s run game usage last season, Devon Achane has been called on more in the ground game this season, currently making up 43.1%.
Opposing offenses have run for the 10th-most adjusted yards in football (132 per game) versus the New York Jets defense this year.
Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game
The Dolphins are a 6-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
With a 57.9% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in football has been the Dolphins.
Right now, the 8th-most sluggish paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Dolphins.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 3rd-fewest yards in the NFL (just 200.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.
Tyreek Hill has totaled significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (54.0) this year than he did last year (109.0).
Jonnu Smith’s skills in generating extra yardage have worsened this year, totaling a measly 5.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.14 rate last year.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the projection model to call just 63.7 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 7th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Jets this year (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).
Davante Adams has been a much smaller part of his offense’s passing attack this year (27.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (35.2%).
After accumulating 127.0 air yards per game last season, Davante Adams has produced significantly fewer this season, now pacing 84.0 per game.
The Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 125.0) versus WRs this year.
This year, the strong Dolphins defense has allowed a puny 217.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 7th-best in the league.
Devon Achane’s 43.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year illustrates a significant decline in his rushing talent over last year’s 69.0 figure.
Devon Achane’s 3.8 adjusted yards per carry this year marks a meaningful reduction in his running skills over last year’s 7.4 mark.
Devon Achane’s 2.92 yards-after-contact this season marks a significant reduction in his rushing talent over last season’s 4.94 rate.
The New York Jets linebackers rank as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
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