Patriots vs Dolphins Match Player Stats | Week 5 Sunday Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

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Patriots vs Dolphins Match Player Stats | Week 5 Sunday Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

MIA @ NE

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 5 Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Todays Game is on Sunday, October 6th
06/10/24 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff

Key Match Player Stats to this Game

The Dolphins will be rolling out backup QB Tyler Huntley in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Miami Dolphins have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.2 plays per game.

The predictive model expects Tyreek Hill to accumulate 7.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Tyreek Hill’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have improved this year, notching 7.24 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 5.07 figure last year.

The Patriots defense has allowed the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (173.0) vs. wideouts this year.

This game’s line suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -4.5-point underdogs.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in the NFL vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami’s collection of safeties has been terrible this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football.

This year, the porous New England Patriots defense has yielded a monstrous 253.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 8th-worst in football.

As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England’s group of LBs has been very bad this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 51.7% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the model to run just 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Tyreek Hill has posted far fewer air yards this year (94.0 per game) than he did last year (113.0 per game).

Tyreek Hill’s 65.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 77.5.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Patriots to pass on 53.7% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The projections expect this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The leading projections forecast Jacoby Brissett to attempt 28.4 passes in this game, on balance: the 5th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Dolphins, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 26.0 per game) this year.

Jacoby Brissett has been one of the bottom QBs in football this year, averaging 141.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 21st percentile.

The leading projections forecast Tyler Huntley to throw 30.1 passes in this game, on average: the 8th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.

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