Patriots at Jaguars Match Player Stats | Week 7 Sunday 2024

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Patriots at Jaguars Match Player Stats | Week 7 Sunday 2024

NE @ JAX

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 7 New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Todays Game is on Sunday, October 20th
20/10/24 09:30:00 AM EST Kickoff

Key Match Player Stats to this Game

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating more of a reliance on throwing than their standard approach.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (37.8 per game) this year.

In this contest, Demario Douglas is predicted by our trusted projection set to place in the 81st percentile among WRs with 7.3 targets.

While Demario Douglas has accounted for 20.0% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of New England’s passing offense this week at 25.3%.

Demario Douglas’s 79.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a meaningful growth in his receiving talent over last season’s 64.1% mark.

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (63.6% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Jaguars.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Jaguars profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

This year, the deficient New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 68.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

The New England Patriots linebackers grade out as the worst group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

The projections expect Evan Engram to accrue 7.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.

With a remarkable 23.9% Target% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Evan Engram stands among the TEs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

As it relates to air yards, Evan Engram grades out in the towering 90th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a striking 40.0 per game.

In this contest, Hunter Henry is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.8 targets.

When it comes to air yards, Hunter Henry ranks in the lofty 92nd percentile among TEs this year, accruing a whopping 40.0 per game.

Hunter Henry has accumulated quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (40.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).

Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 9th-most adjusted yards in football (240.0 per game) against the Patriots defense this year.

This year, the deficient Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered a whopping 296.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-most in football.

The Jaguars pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, conceding 8.75 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville’s unit has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 51.4% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are forecasted by the predictive model to run just 63.2 total plays in this game: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.

Demario Douglas has posted far fewer air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).

The New England offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

Demario Douglas’s 4.75 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a significant drop-off in his effectiveness in space over last year’s 6.4% mark.

A running game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jaguars are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.3 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.

The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a lowly 54.2 per game on average).

The Patriots pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.77 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in the NFL.

Evan Engram’s 76.5% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies an impressive decline in his receiving talent over last season’s 81.3% figure.

The Patriots pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (66.2%) versus tight ends this year (66.2%).

The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.5%) to TEs this year (70.5%).

Trevor Lawrence’s 220.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year marks a material decrease in his passing talent over last year’s 252.0 figure.

Trevor Lawrence’s 62.0% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a substantial diminishment in his passing precision over last year’s 66.2% rate.

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