Patriots vs Ravens Match Player Stats | Week 16 Sunday 2025

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NE @ BAL

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 16 New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
Todays Game is on Sunday, December 21st
21/12/25 20:20:00 PM EST Kickoff

Positives for the New England Patriots Game Today

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.9% pass rate.

Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.

Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (257.0 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

Lamar Jackson rates as one of the best per-play QBs in football this year, averaging an impressive 8.00 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 83rd percentile.

This year, the deficient Patriots defense has yielded a staggering 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-highest rate in the league.

This week, Hunter Henry is forecasted by the model to rank in the 89th percentile among tight ends with 5.8 targets.

When talking about air yards, Hunter Henry ranks in the towering 93rd percentile among TEs this year, totaling an astounding 42.0 per game.

The projections expect Zay Flowers to accumulate 8.2 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.

With a sizeable 29.6% Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers rates among the WRs with the highest volume in the NFL.

Zay Flowers has put up a massive 71.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile when it comes to WRs.

With a terrific 61.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (94th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers in the league.

The Patriots pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (66.3%) versus WRs this year (66.3%).

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to run on 48.1% of their chances: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week.

In this week’s contest, Derrick Henry is expected by the projections to land in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 18.6 carries.

Out of all RBs, Derrick Henry ranks in the 91st percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 62.2% of the workload in his offense’s run game.

As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in stopping the run, New England’s group of DEs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

In this contest, Stefon Diggs is predicted by the model to find himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.2 targets.

Negatives with the Baltimore Ravens Game Today

This game’s line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -3-point underdogs.

At the moment, the 5th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (36.1% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.

Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to run the 4th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

When it comes to the safeties’ role in run defense, Baltimore’s group of safeties has been excellent this year, ranking as the 6th-best in the league.

When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Baltimore’s collection of safeties has been excellent this year, profiling as the best in football.

With a 3-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week’s contest, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their standard approach.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 51.9% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have only 126.7 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.

The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Ravens this year (a mere 51.9 per game on average).

Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to throw 30.6 passes in this contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest among all QBs.

Hunter Henry’s 38.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 44.2.

Hunter Henry’s 68.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a meaningful diminishment in his receiving ability over last year’s 75.1% figure.

Hunter Henry’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, compiling a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.06 figure last year.

The Ravens defense has yielded the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 47.0) versus tight ends this year.

The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Derrick Henry has rushed for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (79.0) this season than he did last season (118.0).

Derrick Henry’s 5.1 adjusted yards per carry this year illustrates a noteable diminishment in his rushing prowess over last year’s 6.2 mark.

Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 91.0 per game) versus the New England Patriots defense this year.

Stefon Diggs has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (50.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).

Stefon Diggs’s 45.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 53.8.

Stefon Diggs has accrued significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (60.0).

Stefon Diggs’s 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a substantial drop-off in his effectiveness in space over last year’s 3.9% figure.

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