
DET @ IND







Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Sunday, November 24th
24/11/24 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff
Key Match Player Stats to this Game
This week’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Colts, who are massive -7.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.
Josh Downs has compiled many more adjusted receiving yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (43.0).
Our trusted projections expect the Colts as the 8th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 44.4% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Jonathan Taylor to notch 19.5 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
After taking on 56.8% of his team’s rush attempts last season, Jonathan Taylor has been called on more in the ground game this season, now comprising 74.6%.
Jonathan Taylor has generated 82.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest figures in football when it comes to RBs (95th percentile).
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.7 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 9.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.
With an elite 29.2% Target% (97th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.
This year, the poor Colts pass defense has been gouged for a massive 71.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the largest rate in football.
Jahmyr Gibbs has garnered 46.6% of his team’s rushing play calls this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (83.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
The opposing side have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the league (139 per game) against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
This week, Jared Goff is predicted by the projections to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 35.4.,With a stellar tally of 245.0 adjusted passing yards per game (75th percentile), Jared Goff ranks among the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
This year, the anemic Colts defense has been gouged for a colossal 251.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-most in the NFL.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Colts grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game
Our trusted projections expect the Colts to be the 8th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (only 54.3 per game on average).
The Lions pass defense has shown strong efficiency against WRs this year, surrendering 7.18 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in football.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Detroit’s safety corps has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.
Jonathan Taylor profiles as one of the weakest RBs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 2.86 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 22nd percentile.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 90.0 per game) against the Lions defense this year.
An extreme running game script is implied by the Lions being a big 7.5-point favorite in this game.
The Lions have run the 8th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (76.0 per game).
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 76.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year shows a significant drop-off in his receiving ability over last year’s 98.0 figure.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 3.35 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a material decline in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 5.6% mark.
When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, Indianapolis’s unit has been fantastic this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the league.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Indianapolis’s group of CBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.
In totaling a measly 24.2 pass attempts per game this year, Anthony Richardson ranks among the bottom QBs in the league (18th percentile) in this statistic.
With an awful tally of 148.0 adjusted passing yards per game (15th percentile), Anthony Richardson ranks among the bottom QBs in football this year.
Anthony Richardson’s throwing precision has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 57.3% to 47.4%.
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