
JAX @ DET




Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Sunday, November 17th
17/11/24 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff
Key Match Player Stats to this Game
The projections expect the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (36.3 per game) this year.
Jared Goff’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 66.3% to 72.4%.
Jared Goff’s 8.67 adjusted yards-per-target this season reflects a noteworthy improvement in his passing effectiveness over last season’s 7.5% rate.
In this contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown is anticipated by the projections to rank in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.2 targets.
With a high 28.3% Target Share (97th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars may pass less this week (and call more carries) given that they be forced to start backup QB Mac Jones.
This week’s line implies an extreme throwing game script for the Jaguars, who are huge -13-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week.
Right now, the 7th-quickest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (39.3 per game) this year.
Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game
This game’s spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a huge favorite by 13 points.
The projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Lions have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.7 plays per game.
Jared Goff has passed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (232.0) this season than he did last season (268.0).
After totaling 76.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a disappointment this year, currently pacing 55.0 per game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (66.0) this year than he did last year (98.0).
Evan Engram has accumulated significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (44.0) this year than he did last year (58.0).
Evan Engram’s 71.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a meaningful reduction in his receiving prowess over last year’s 81.3% figure.
With a weak 6.2 adjusted yards per target (13th percentile) this year, Evan Engram ranks as one of the worst pass-catching TEs in the NFL.
Evan Engram’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this season, compiling a measly 3.48 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.49 mark last season.
The Detroit Lions defense has yielded the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) vs. tight ends this year.
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