Browns vs Lions Match Player Stats | Week 4 Sunday 2025

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CLE @ DET

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 4 Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions
Todays Game is on Sunday, September 28th
28/09/25 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff

Positives for the Cleveland Browns Game Today

The Lions feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator John Morton, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The Lions are a heavy 9-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-most run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Lions are forecasted by the model to run 64.9 total plays in this contest: the 9th-most on the slate this week.

The Detroit Lions have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 59.3 plays per game.

Jared Goff’s 80.6% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys an impressive gain in his throwing accuracy over last season’s 72.0% rate.

With a stellar 8.18 adjusted yards-per-target (84th percentile) this year, Jared Goff rates among the most effective QBs in football.

In this game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.6 targets.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 27.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs.

The Browns are a massive 9-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to pass on 66.8% of their plays: the highest clip among all teams this week.

The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Browns since the start of last season (a colossal 62.2 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.

Sam LaPorta has run a route on 79.9% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs.

In this week’s contest, Sam LaPorta is forecasted by the predictive model to find himself in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.6 targets.

Negatives with the Detroit Lions Game Today

The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.

Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (50.0) this year than he did last year (87.0).

Jahmyr Gibbs’s 4.6 adjusted yards per carry this season signifies a meaningful drop-off in his rushing ability over last season’s 5.9 rate.

The Browns defensive ends project as the best DE corps in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to pass on 55.2% of their plays: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) since the start of last season.

Jared Goff’s 194.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year conveys a significant diminishment in his throwing skills over last year’s 266.0 figure.

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 67.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a substantial decline in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 78.0 rate.

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are forecasted by the projections to call only 63.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Jerry Jeudy has been much less involved in his team’s passing offense this year (18.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (23.6%).

Jerry Jeudy has accumulated substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (33.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).

Jerry Jeudy’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 63.9% to 48.1%.

Jerry Jeudy’s 6.3 adjusted yards per target this year reflects a substantial reduction in his receiving talent over last year’s 8.2 rate.

Joe Flacco has passed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (168.0) this season than he did last season (240.0).

Joe Flacco’s passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 64.4% to 60.7%.

Joe Flacco’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 5.34 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 6.78 rate last year.

Since the start of last season, the stout Lions defense has allowed a measly 67.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-lowest rate in the league.

Sam LaPorta has accumulated a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (45.0).

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