Packers vs Vikings Match Player Stats | Week 4 Sunday Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

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Packers vs Vikings Match Player Stats | Week 4 Sunday Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

MIN @ GB

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 4 Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Todays Game is on Sunday, September 29th
29/09/24 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff

Key Match Player Stats to this Game

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week’s game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.

Sam Darnold has been one of the most on-target passers in the NFL since the start of last season with an excellent 71.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 89th percentile.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Packers defense since the start of last season (71.5% Adjusted Completion%).

The Packers pass defense has shown weak efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 8.09 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-most in the NFL.

The Packers will be forced to use backup quarterback Malik Willis in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) since the start of last season.

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

Jayden Reed rates as one of the leading WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 48.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.

Jayden Reed is positioned as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a terrific 71.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.

The model projects Aaron Jones to accrue 13.1 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Aaron Jones has been given 57.6% of his team’s run game usage this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile among running backs.

Aaron Jones has averaged 66.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in football when it comes to running backs (92nd percentile).

Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the league (125 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.

The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

In this contest, Josh Jacobs is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 96th percentile among RBs with 19.1 rush attempts.

With a remarkable record of 68.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (93rd percentile), Josh Jacobs rates among the best RBs in the league since the start of last season.

Josh Jacobs’s ground effectiveness has gotten better this season, notching 4.48 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.48 figure last season.

The model projects Justin Jefferson to total 9.4 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.

Justin Jefferson is positioned as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 79.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.9%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (67.9%).

Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to call the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Vikings have called the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.4 plays per game.

Minnesota’s passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and rushing stats deflated) due to playing the 6th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with windier weather this week.

In racking up a measly 5.4 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Sam Darnold slots in among the bottom quarterbacks in the league (7th percentile) by this metric.

Sam Darnold is positioned as one of the worst passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 38.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 7th percentile.

With a 5-point advantage, the Packers are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.

The projections expect the Packers to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Packers offense to be the most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 30.28 seconds per snap.

The Vikings pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.14 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the league.

The Minnesota Vikings linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

The model projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 5th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 39.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Josh Jacobs has been a much smaller piece of his offense’s rushing attack this year (57.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (81.5%).

The Minnesota Vikings defense boasts the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up just 3.92 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in stopping the run, Minnesota’s DE corps has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

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