Vikings vs Steelers Match Player Stats | Week 4 Sunday 2025

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 4 Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers
Todays Game is on Sunday, September 28th
28/09/25 09:30:00 AM EST Kickoff

Positives for the Minnesota Vikings Game Today

The model projects the Steelers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect Jonnu Smith to accumulate 4.9 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

With a top-tier 19.2% Target Share (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Jonnu Smith rates among the TEs with the highest volume in the league.

Our trusted projections expect Aaron Rodgers to throw 35.5 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 10th-most among all QBs.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Minnesota’s collection of LBs has been lousy since the start of last season, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

With a top-tier 98.5% Route Participation% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Justin Jefferson has been as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in football.

In this week’s contest, Justin Jefferson is expected by the model to place in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 9.2 targets.

Justin Jefferson has notched a staggering 99.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

The Steelers pass defense has displayed poor efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, conceding 8.72 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in football.

This week, Jaylen Warren is predicted by the predictive model to rank in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 16.5 rush attempts.

Jaylen Warren has been much more involved in his team’s ground game this year (69.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (25.6%).

With an impressive tally of 37.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (77th percentile), Jaylen Warren rates among the best pure runners in the NFL this year.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to run on 43.8% of their chances: the 10th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

In this week’s game, Jordan Mason is projected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs with 20.1 rush attempts.

While Jordan Mason has earned 55.2% of his team’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Minnesota’s run game in this week’s contest at 72.3%.

Jordan Mason’s ground efficiency (5.33 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (76th percentile when it comes to RBs).

The model projects T.J. Hockenson to garner 5.8 targets in this week’s game, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.

As it relates to air yards, T.J. Hockenson ranks in the towering 96th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a superb 49.0 per game.

T.J. Hockenson’s 41.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 92nd percentile for tight ends.

Since the start of last season, the porous Pittsburgh Steelers defense has given up a monstrous 53.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 9th-worst in football.

Since the start of last season, the weak Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been torched for a monstrous 231.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-worst in the league.

Since the start of last season, the deficient Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a whopping 8.19 yards.

As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Pittsburgh’s LB corps has been awful since the start of last season, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

DK Metcalf has run a route on 92.5% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

In this week’s contest, DK Metcalf is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.7 targets.

Negatives with the Pittsburgh Steelers Game Today

The model projects the Steelers to call the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Jonnu Smith’s 16.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season reflects a significant drop-off in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 52.0 mark.

Jonnu Smith’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this season, averaging a measly 5.00 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.08 mark last season.

Jonnu Smith’s 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a remarkable decline in his efficiency in the open field over last season’s 5.6% figure.

Since the start of last season, the formidable Vikings defense has allowed a meager 73.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 10th-smallest rate in the league.

Aaron Rodgers’s 143.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year shows a material diminishment in his throwing skills over last year’s 237.0 figure.

Since the start of last season, the fierce Vikings defense has given up a mere 69.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-lowest rate in football.

The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 7.37 adjusted yards-per-target: the 8th-fewest in the league.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 56.2% of their downs: the 10th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

As far as a defense’s effect on pace, at 29.46 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Vikings to be the 3rd-most sluggish in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time.

Minnesota’s passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) in light of playing the 3rd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some correction with windier conditions in this week’s game.

Justin Jefferson has put up many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (44.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).

Justin Jefferson’s 59.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates a meaningful regression in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 68.4% figure.

The model projects the Steelers to be the 8th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 39.3% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The opposing side have run for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 95.0 per game) against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season.

The Minnesota defensive tackles project as the 6th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

Jordan Mason has run for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (69.0).

The Steelers defense boasts the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, giving up just 4.17 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

T.J. Hockenson has accrued significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (44.0).

With a weak 65.9% Adjusted Completion% (21st percentile) this year, T.J. Hockenson ranks among the least sure-handed receivers in football among tight ends.

The model projects Carson Wentz to attempt 32.7 passes this week, on average: the 10th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

DK Metcalf has totaled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (37.0) this year than he did last year (64.0).

DK Metcalf’s 54.2% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 60.2% rate.

DK Metcalf’s 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows an impressive diminishment in his efficiency in space over last year’s 3.9% mark.

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