
PIT @ BAL







Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Saturday, January 11th
11/01/25 20:00:00 PM EST Kickoff
Key Match Player Stats to this Game
The model projects the Ravens to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Mark Andrews to accrue 4.7 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Mark Andrews’s 81.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a significant progression in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 74.4% figure.
With a remarkable 10.0 adjusted yards per target (94th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews rates as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.
At a -10-point disadvantage, the Steelers are massive underdogs in this week’s game, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their usual game plan.
The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a whopping 59.6 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Pat Freiermuth has put up significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (41.0) this season than he did last season (29.0).
With an outstanding total of 243.0 adjusted passing yards per game (80th percentile), Lamar Jackson ranks as one of the top QBs in the NFL this year.
With an excellent 8.70 adjusted yards-per-target (100th percentile) this year, Lamar Jackson ranks as one of the most effective quarterbacks in the league.
This year, the feeble Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded a whopping 229.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-most in the NFL.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has displayed weak efficiency this year, allowing 8.04 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.
Our trusted projections expect the Ravens to be the 2nd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 52.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This week, Derrick Henry is forecasted by the model to land in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs with 20.6 carries.
Derrick Henry’s 119.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season marks a substantial improvement in his running prowess over last season’s 68.0 mark.
This year, the weak Ravens defense has conceded a whopping 252.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the most in the NFL.
In this contest, George Pickens is projected by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.1 targets.
Right now, the 6th-most run-heavy team in football (42.6% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The model projects Najee Harris to total 13.6 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Najee Harris has averaged 62.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (85th percentile).
Rashod Bateman’s 82.0% Route Participation Rate this season conveys a remarkable progression in his passing game usage over last season’s 58.5% rate.
Rashod Bateman has notched significantly more air yards this year (59.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
Rashod Bateman has compiled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (45.0) this season than he did last season (25.0).
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has shown weak efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, allowing 8.73 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.
Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game
This week’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 10 points.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 47.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The 7th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Ravens this year (a mere 56.5 per game on average).
Mark Andrews has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (39.0 per game) than he did last season (49.0 per game).
Mark Andrews’s 33.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 46.8.
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football (57.4% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Steelers.
This year, the tough Ravens pass defense has yielded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing tight ends: a mere 4.3 YAC.
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Baltimore’s group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 5th-best in the league.
In this game, Lamar Jackson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have the 2nd-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 29.2.,This year, the formidable Pittsburgh Steelers run defense has given up a paltry 99.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 5th-best in the league.
As it relates to the safeties’ role in stopping the run, Pittsburgh’s unit has been terrific this year, profiling as the 4th-best in football.
This year, the stout Ravens defense has allowed the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing squads: a puny 4.7 YAC.
With a poor 59.3% Adjusted Catch Rate (18th percentile) this year, George Pickens rates among the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to wide receivers.
George Pickens’s talent in picking up extra yardage have declined this year, totaling a mere 2.95 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.94 mark last year.
This year, the daunting Baltimore Ravens pass defense has surrendered the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a meager 3.7 YAC.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 79.0 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, Baltimore’s collection of DTs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.
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