
BAL @ LAC







Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Monday, November 25th
25/11/24 20:15:00 PM EST Kickoff
Key Match Player Stats to this Game
Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) typically lead to better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
The Chargers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (34.8 per game) this year.
Lamar Jackson has passed for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (255.0) this year than he did last year (225.0).
With a fantastic 8.74 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) this year, Lamar Jackson stands as one of the best per-play QBs in football.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to run on 48.7% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
In this week’s game, Derrick Henry is predicted by the model to finish in the 91st percentile among RBs with 18.6 carries.
Derrick Henry has received 61.2% of his team’s rushing play calls this year, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry’s 113.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season shows a meaningful improvement in his rushing proficiency over last season’s 68.0 mark.
Derrick Henry’s 6.3 adjusted yards per carry this season reflects a substantial improvement in his running talent over last season’s 4.1 figure.
Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may suffer.
The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the most passes in football (41.7 per game) this year.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has allowed the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (200.0) vs. WRs this year.
This year, the feeble Ravens defense has been gouged for the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing WRs: a staggering 8.75 yards.
The predictive model expects Will Dissly to earn 6.4 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
Will Dissly has been much more involved in his team’s air attack this season (18.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (3.5%).
J.K. Dobbins has earned 54.6% of his offense’s rushing play calls this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
J.K. Dobbins has picked up 71.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (89th percentile).
In this week’s contest, Zay Flowers is forecasted by the predictive model to slot into the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.3 targets.
Zay Flowers has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 25.9% this year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
Zay Flowers has put up significantly more air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).
The model projects Justin Herbert to attempt 34.5 passes in this contest, on balance: the 9th-most among all QBs.
Opposing teams have passed for the most adjusted yards in the league (310.0 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
This week, Isaiah Likely is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 75th percentile among tight ends with 4.0 targets.
Isaiah Likely has accrued far more air yards this season (33.0 per game) than he did last season (14.0 per game).
Isaiah Likely’s 31.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 16.0.
Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game
The leading projections forecast the Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 7th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Ravens this year (a lowly 55.6 per game on average).
In this week’s game, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by the model to average the 6th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 30.4.,The Chargers pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, giving up 7.31 adjusted yards-per-target: the 7th-fewest in the league.
This year, the formidable Chargers run defense has allowed a feeble 107.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 9th-best in the league.
The Chargers safeties project as the 6th-best safety corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chargers are anticipated by the model to run just 62.7 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.2 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year with their pass rush.
Will Dissly’s possession skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 89.4% to 79.3%.
Will Dissly’s 7.6 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a meaningful diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 9.1 figure.
Will Dissly’s 5.73 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season signifies a significant regression in his effectiveness in space over last season’s 7.1% rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 7th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 41.4% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
This year, the porous Ravens run defense has been gouged for a whopping 3.48 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s ground game: the 32nd-biggest rate in football.
Zay Flowers’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 75.1% to 69.4%.
This year, the fierce Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has allowed the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a paltry 3.5 YAC.
Justin Herbert’s 207.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year shows a substantial diminishment in his throwing ability over last year’s 248.0 figure.
Justin Herbert has been one of the least on-target QBs in the league this year with a 62.5% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 23rd percentile.
Isaiah Likely’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 82.1% to 77.2%.
Isaiah Likely’s 9.4 adjusted yards per target this year shows a meaningful diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 11.3 rate.
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