Chargers vs Texans Match Player Stats | Week 19 Saturday 2025

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Chargers vs Texans Match Player Stats | Week 19 Saturday 2025

LAC @ HOU

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 19 Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Todays Game is on Saturday, January 11th
11/01/25 16:30:00 PM EST Kickoff

Key Match Player Stats to this Game

With a 62.2% rate of passing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football has been the Los Angeles Chargers.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

This game’s spread implies a passing game script for the Texans, who are -3-point underdogs.

The model projects the Houston Texans to be the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

With an elite 77.8% Route% (89th percentile) this year, Dalton Schultz places among the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.

The predictive model expects Dalton Schultz to total 5.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.

In this week’s contest, Joe Mixon is expected by the model to land in the 88th percentile among running backs with 15.5 carries.

Joe Mixon has garnered 75.0% of his team’s carries this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Joe Mixon has rushed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).

In this week’s contest, Nico Collins is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.4 targets.

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has shown bad efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 8.40 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect C.J. Stroud to attempt 36.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 2nd-most among all quarterbacks.

The leading projections forecast Will Dissly to accrue 4.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Will Dissly’s 14.5% Target Rate this season reflects a meaningful improvement in his air attack utilization over last season’s 3.5% mark.

After averaging 2.0 air yards per game last year, Will Dissly has seen a big uptick this year, now sitting at 19.0 per game.

The projections expect J.K. Dobbins to earn 14.5 carries this week, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile among RBs.

Among all running backs, J.K. Dobbins ranks in the 86th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 53.5% of the workload in his team’s ground game.

With a remarkable total of 70.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (92nd percentile), J.K. Dobbins places as one of the leading pure rushers in the league this year.

J.K. Dobbins’s running effectiveness (4.70 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (78th percentile among RBs).

Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see only 127.8 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The 2nd-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Chargers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).

Justin Herbert has passed for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (218.0) this season than he did last season (248.0).

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the lowest rate in the league versus the Texans defense this year (63.5% Adjusted Completion%).

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see just 127.8 plays on offense run: the lowest number among all games this week.

When talking about pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Texans ranks as the worst in the league this year.

Dalton Schultz’s 29.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents an impressive decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 41.0 rate.

Dalton Schultz’s possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 70.0% to 61.5%.

The Chargers defense has surrendered the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 34.0) versus tight ends this year.

The Texans pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (58.5%) versus WRs this year (58.5%).

The Houston Texans pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, yielding 7.54 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the league.

The predictive model expects the Texans as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.6% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

As it relates to the safeties’ role in run defense, Los Angeles’s unit has been great this year, grading out as the 9th-best in the league.

Nico Collins’s 67.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 71.9% mark.

Nico Collins’s 9.1 adjusted yards per target this season shows a remarkable drop-off in his receiving prowess over last season’s 11.0 figure.

Nico Collins’s ability to grind out extra yardage has worsened this year, notching just 5.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.78 mark last year.

C.J. Stroud’s 205.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year marks an impressive decrease in his passing ability over last year’s 257.0 figure.

C.J. Stroud rates as one of the worst precision passers in the league this year with a 61.2% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 12th percentile.

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, giving up 7.28 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.

Will Dissly’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 89.4% to 81.1%.

The Texans pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67%) to tight ends this year (67.0%).

The Chargers have been the 5th-least run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 37.8% run rate.

This year, the shaky Houston Texans run defense has been torched for a massive 4.20 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing squads: the 18th-worst rate in the league.

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