
BAL @ PIT







Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Sunday, November 17th
17/11/24 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff
Key Match Player Stats to this Game
Lamar Jackson has thrown for significantly more adjusted yards per game (260.0) this season than he did last season (225.0).
With an outstanding 69.5% Adjusted Completion% (88th percentile) this year, Lamar Jackson places as one of the most accurate QBs in football.
Lamar Jackson’s 9.03 adjusted yards-per-target this season illustrates a meaningful improvement in his throwing efficiency over last season’s 7.9% mark.
The Pittsburgh cornerbacks project as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the most run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 49.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
In this week’s contest, Derrick Henry is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 97th percentile among RBs with 19.2 rush attempts.
Among all running backs, Derrick Henry grades out in the 89th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 60.4% of the workload in his team’s ground game.
Derrick Henry’s 118.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season indicates a substantial progression in his running proficiency over last season’s 68.0 figure.
A passing game script is implied by the Steelers being a -3.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.36 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.6 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense this year: most in football.
With a remarkable 76.1% Route% (86th percentile) this year, Pat Freiermuth rates among the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the league.
Pat Freiermuth’s sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 73.2% to 91.7%.
The predictive model expects Zay Flowers to earn 6.9 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Zay Flowers has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 26.2% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Zay Flowers has notched many more air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).
Zay Flowers’s 67.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year signifies a significant progression in his receiving talent over last year’s 52.0 rate.
The Steelers pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency against wideouts this year, yielding 8.77 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the league.
Russell Wilson’s 8.52 adjusted yards-per-target this year shows a meaningful growth in his throwing effectiveness over last year’s 7.0% rate.
Opposing teams have passed for the most adjusted yards in football (321.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
The model projects George Pickens to garner 7.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
After accruing 89.0 air yards per game last year, George Pickens has been rising this year, now averaging 97.0 per game.
Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 50.5% of their downs: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Right now, the 2nd-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
The projections expect Lamar Jackson to attempt 30.0 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 8th-fewest among all QBs.
This year, the stout Steelers defense has surrendered a puny 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 9th-smallest rate in the league.
Opposing squads have run for the 4th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 87.0 per game) vs. the Steelers defense this year.
The Steelers safeties profile as the best safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The projections expect the Steelers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
After accumulating 27.0 air yards per game last year, Pat Freiermuth has produced significantly less this year, currently sitting at 18.0 per game.
In regards to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.92 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties getting after the quarterback, Baltimore’s safety corps has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL.
This week, Russell Wilson is expected by the model to wind up with the 7th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 29.9.,Russell Wilson’s passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 66.1% to 59.9%.
George Pickens’s skills in generating extra yardage have worsened this season, compiling a mere 2.82 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.94 rate last season.
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