
NO @ LAC




Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Sunday, October 27th
27/10/24 16:05:00 PM EST Kickoff
Key Match Player Stats to this Game
The leading projections forecast the Saints to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 43.1% run rate.
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to run the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
In this week’s contest, Alvin Kamara is expected by the model to rank in the 92nd percentile among running backs with 17.5 carries.
After accounting for 53.6% of his team’s rush attempts last season, Alvin Kamara has been called on more in the running game this season, currently taking on 65.8%.
With an outstanding record of 62.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (82nd percentile), Alvin Kamara rates as one of the leading pure runners in the NFL this year.
With a 7-point advantage, the Chargers are a huge favorite this week, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers as the 4th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see 131.9 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
J.K. Dobbins has picked up 77.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (91st percentile).
This year, the imposing New Orleans Saints run defense has allowed a measly 5.64 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition’s ground game: the 31st-smallest rate in the league.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in the NFL against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (72.8% Adjusted Completion%).
Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game
An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Saints being a heavy -7-point underdog this week.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
With a terrible total of 2.23 yards after contact (10th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara places among the least effective running backs in the NFL.
This year, the tough Chargers run defense has conceded a feeble 108.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 9th-best in football.
The Los Angeles defensive tackles project as the 10th-best unit in the league this year with their run defense.
The Chargers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.7 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may drop-off.
Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 56.9% pass rate.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Chargers, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.3 per game) this year.
The New Orleans Saints O-line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have passed for the 5th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 194.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.
The Los Angeles cornerbacks profile as the 10th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
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