
JAX @ HOU






Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Sunday, September 29th
29/09/24 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff
Key Match Player Stats to this Game
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans as the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Texans to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans since the start of last season (a massive 60.0 per game on average).
With a remarkable 72.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Nico Collins has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL in the league.
Since the start of last season, the poor Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded the 8th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a colossal 4.73 YAC.
A passing game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a -3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars since the start of last season (a colossal 59.2 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Since the start of last season, the weak Houston Texans defense has yielded a staggering 236.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 6th-worst in the NFL.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
With a terrific 35.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (86th percentile) since the start of last season, Dalton Schultz rates as one of the best pass-catching tight ends in football.
The model projects Travis Etienne to garner 13.6 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Travis Etienne has grinded out 58.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL when it comes to RBs (84th percentile).
Travis Etienne’s 5.0 adjusted yards per carry this season indicates a noteable progression in his rushing prowess over last season’s 3.7 rate.
With an outstanding tally of 227.0 adjusted passing yards per game (78th percentile), C.J. Stroud places as one of the best quarterbacks in football since the start of last season.
Opposing teams have passed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the league (234.0 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season.
Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game
The Texans are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Jacksonville’s collection of LBs has been fantastic since the start of last season, projecting as the best in the NFL.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by the projection model to call just 62.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 11th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Dalton Schultz’s 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 34.7.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (66.2%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (66.2%).
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to run on 37.8% of their downs: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans defense owns the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, conceding just 3.64 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
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