
HOU @ DAL







Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Monday, November 18th
18/11/24 20:15:00 PM EST Kickoff
Key Match Player Stats to this Game
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to see 133.9 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 62.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, giving up 9.12 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in football.
The Cowboys defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 2nd-most in the league.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 133.9 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
The Dallas Cowboys have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 59.7 plays per game.
Our trusted projections expect Rico Dowdle to earn 13.2 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.
After comprising 18.5% of his team’s rushing play calls last season, Rico Dowdle has been called on more in the ground game this season, currently comprising 47.9%.
Rico Dowdle has rushed for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (44.0) this season than he did last season (23.0).
The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Joe Mixon’s 93.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year marks a remarkable gain in his rushing talent over last year’s 61.0 rate.
This year, the poor Dallas Cowboys run defense has conceded a monstrous 155.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the most in the NFL.
Negative Match Player Stats Trends that should impact this Game
The Texans are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
When talking about pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Houston Texans ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year.
C.J. Stroud has passed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (222.0) this year than he did last year (257.0).
With a lackluster 60.6% Adjusted Completion% (9th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud rates as one of the least on-target passers in the league.
The Cowboys will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Cooper Rush this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a massive -7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 6th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 39.5% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
This year, the poor Texans run defense has given up a whopping 4.39 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 24th-worst rate in football.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Texans, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 32.3 per game) this year.
The Dallas Cowboys O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack stats across the board.
Jake Ferguson’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, notching a mere 6.76 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.15 rate last season.
The Texans defense has conceded the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 29.0) to TEs this year.
This year, the stout Texans defense has yielded a meager 56.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the lowest rate in the league.
In this contest, Cooper Rush is anticipated by the projections to have the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.8.,Cooper Rush is positioned as one of the worst precision passers in the league this year with a 57.4% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 16th percentile.
With a subpar 3.85 adjusted yards-per-target (13th percentile) this year, Cooper Rush rates among the least efficient passers in the league.
CeeDee Lamb has posted far fewer air yards this year (91.0 per game) than he did last year (109.0 per game).
CeeDee Lamb’s 61.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 71.1.
CeeDee Lamb’s 76.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a significant diminishment in his receiving talent over last year’s 103.0 figure.
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