Rangers @ Astros Series Game 2 Matchup Details

Positives for the Texas Rangers Game Today

Hitting from the opposite that A.J. Blubaugh throws from, Alejandro Osuna will have the upper hand today.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Alejandro Osuna has been unlucky this year. His .260 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .337.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.

Wyatt Langford pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Over the last 14 days, Wyatt Langford has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 13.7% to 25%.

Wyatt Langford has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.6-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 91.2-mph EV.

Cory Blaser profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be behind the plate in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 3rd-best park in MLB for strikeouts.

A.J. Blubaugh will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his metrics across the board.

Merrill Kelly has averaged 91.6 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.

With 6 batters who share the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Merrill Kelly should benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s evaluation, Merrill Kelly’s overall pitching ability ranks in the 84th percentile among all starting pitchers in baseball right now.

Minute Maid Park ranks as the #25 stadium in Major League Baseball for batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Christian Walker is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.1% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Christian Walker has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 12.3% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the past week.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Christian Walker ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The switch-hitting Victor Caratini will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Merrill Kelly.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage today.

Victor Caratini’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (13.7°) is significantly higher than his 7.5° mark last season.

Victor Caratini has compiled a .271 batting average this year, ranking in the 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Jose Altuve is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In the past two weeks, Jose Altuve’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90-mph over the course of the season to 92.5-mph in recent games.

Jose Altuve’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Carlos Correa’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Carlos Correa is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Carlos Correa will hold that advantage today.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Carlos Correa ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Carlos Correa has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 7.1% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the last week.

When assessing his home run ability, Joc Pederson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Joc Pederson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.

Hitting from the opposite that A.J. Blubaugh throws from, Joc Pederson will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Joc Pederson has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .177 rate is considerably lower than his .214 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

As it relates to plate discipline, Joc Pederson’s talent is quite good, posting a 1.86 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 82nd percentile.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.313) may lead us to conclude that Joc Pederson has been unlucky this year with his .276 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jonah Heim’s true offensive skill to be a .286, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .019 gap between that figure and his actual .267 wOBA.

As it relates to his home run ability, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.

Compared to last year, Adolis Garcia has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.9% to 17.8% this season.

Despite posting a .293 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Adolis Garcia has had bad variance on his side given the .033 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .326.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Jesus Sanchez will hold the platoon advantage over Merrill Kelly today.

Jesus Sanchez has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Jesus Sanchez has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 16.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is deflated compared to his 24.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Jake Burger as the league’s 19th-best home run hitter.

Jake Burger has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Jake Burger has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 13.2% seasonal rate to 20.7% in the past 14 days.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Jake Burger’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.2-mph over the course of the season to 99-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

Jeremy Pena pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Jeremy Pena has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 96-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal EV of 91.1-mph.

Jake Meyers’s BABIP skill is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jake Meyers will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Jake Meyers has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal average of 92.6-mph.

Jake Meyers’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 44.4% to 50.4%.

Jake Meyers has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 5.1 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal lower than his 10.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Josh Jung’s BABIP ability is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Josh Jung has been unlucky this year, compiling a .296 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .314 — a .018 discrepancy.

By putting up a .323 BABIP this year, Josh Jung grades out in the 82nd percentile.

Josh Smith is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Minute Maid Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for home runs.

Batting from the opposite that A.J. Blubaugh throws from, Josh Smith will have an edge in today’s matchup.

As it relates to plate discipline, Josh Smith’s ability is quite good, posting a 1.68 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 81st percentile.

When assessing his batting average talent, Yainer Diaz is projected as the 19th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

In the past week, Yainer Diaz’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.7% up to 21.4%.

Yainer Diaz has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 102.5-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal figure of 93.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Yainer Diaz has been unlucky this year, compiling a .304 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .026 discrepancy.

Negatives with the Houston Astros Game Today

When assessing his home run ability, Alejandro Osuna ranks in the 19th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Alejandro Osuna is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

This year, Alejandro Osuna has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 36% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.

Among all major league parks, the 3rd-tallest average fence height are at Minute Maid Park.

Minute Maid Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to worse offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 5th-worst stadium in the league for lefty batting average.

Alejandro Osuna hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 9th-deepest CF fences today.

The #6 ballpark in MLB for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

The #5 field in baseball for suppressing batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

Hitting from the same side that A.J. Blubaugh throws from, Wyatt Langford will be at a disadvantage in today’s game.

Wyatt Langford will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects A.J. Blubaugh to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.

Yainer Diaz, the Astros’s expected catcher today, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Houston Astros (19.9 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of hitters of all teams on the slate.

Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Merrill Kelly in today’s game.

Merrill Kelly struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his last GS and accumulated 1 Ks.

Merrill Kelly’s 91.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 22nd percentile among all starting pitchers.

The Houston Astros projected batting order projects as the 3rd-strongest of the day in terms of overall hitting skill.

It may be smart to expect improved performance for the Houston Astros offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

Among all major league parks, Minute Maid Park’s LF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.

Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Texas Rangers.

Hitting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Christian Walker will not have the upper hand today.

Over the past two weeks, Christian Walker’s 30% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 38.5%.

Posting a 4 K/BB rate this year, Christian Walker has shown weak plate discipline, ranking in the 17th percentile.

Christian Walker has compiled a .229 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 16th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Caratini in the 23rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Victor Caratini is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

Victor Caratini hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 9th-deepest CF fences today.

Victor Caratini’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 91.2-mph mark last year has dropped to 89.1-mph.

Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Jose Altuve has a tough challenge in today’s game.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.292) provides evidence that Jose Altuve has had some very good luck this year with his .331 actual wOBA.

Merrill Kelly will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Correa today.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, Joc Pederson has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 34% of the time.

Joc Pederson pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Joc Pederson today.

Jonah Heim is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Jonah Heim will bat from his weak side against A.J. Blubaugh in this game.

Jonah Heim hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 9th-deepest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonah Heim in the 2nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Batting from the same side that A.J. Blubaugh throws from, Adolis Garcia will have a tough matchup in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Adolis Garcia today.

Based on Statcast data, Adolis Garcia is in the 19th percentile for offensive skills per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .297.

As it relates to plate discipline, Adolis Garcia’s ability is quite weak, sporting a 4.86 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 9th percentile.

Jesus Sanchez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

15% of the time that Jesus Sanchez has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Jesus Sanchez has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past 7 days.

Batting from the same side that A.J. Blubaugh throws from, Jake Burger meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jake Burger in today’s game.

Jake Burger has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, placing in the 1st percentile with a 7.03 K/BB rate.

Merrill Kelly will have the handedness advantage over Jeremy Pena in today’s matchup.

Jeremy Pena’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased lately, going from 41.8% on the season to 20% in the last week’s worth of games.

In terms of his batting average, Jeremy Pena has had positive variance on his side this year. His .297 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .276.

In the last 7 days, Jeremy Pena’s 6.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 10.7%.

Despite posting a .353 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jeremy Pena has experienced some positive variance given the .023 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

Jake Meyers is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Jake Meyers will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.

Jake Meyers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Josh Jung is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the same side that A.J. Blubaugh throws from, Josh Jung has a tough challenge in today’s game.

Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 9th-deepest CF fences today.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Josh Smith in today’s game.

Josh Smith’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 89.7-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 82.4-mph in the last 14 days.

Last season, Josh Smith had a launch angle of 13.2° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this season he experienced a significant decline to just 8.9°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Smith in the 23rd percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Yainer Diaz meets a tough challenge today.

Yainer Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

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