Astros vs Padres match player stats Wednesday, September 18th 2024. Houston Astros at San Diego Padres Series Game 3

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Astros vs Padres match player stats Wednesday, September 18th 2024. Houston Astros at San Diego Padres Series Game 3

HOU @ SD

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Todays Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Houston Astros at San Diego Padres
Series Game 3
Todays Game is on Wednesday, September 18th
18/09/24 18:40:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positive Match Player Stats for Astros vs Padres Series Game 3 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Petco Park as the 4th-best stadium in baseball for righty home runs.

Among all stadiums, Petco Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.

Xander Bogaerts will hold the platoon advantage over Framber Valdez today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Petco Park profiles as the #4 field in MLB for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Jackson Merrill will hold that advantage today.

Jeremy Pena’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In the majors, Petco Park’s CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.

Jeremy Pena has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph to 92-mph over the past 14 days.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alex Bregman is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

Alex Bregman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in the league.

Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Yordan Alvarez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease in today’s matchup.

Jason Heyward will have the handedness advantage against Dylan Cease in today’s game.

Over the last 7 days, Jason Heyward’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.2% up to 25%.

Over the past 7 days, Jason Heyward’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.8-mph over the course of the season to 103.7-mph in recent games.

When estimating his batting average skill, Yainer Diaz is projected as the 19th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yainer Diaz is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.

Yainer Diaz has put up a .338 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, grading out in the 77th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Yainer Diaz has compiled a .305 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 98th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Yainer Diaz has put up a .302 batting average this year, ranking in the 97th percentile.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 12th-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kyle Tucker is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Over the last 7 days, Kyle Tucker’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.2-mph over the course of the season to 101.3-mph lately.

Kyle Tucker’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 19.5% to 24.9%.

When estimating his batting average talent, Luis Arraez is projected as the best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Luis Arraez is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Jose Altuve is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Donovan Solano is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Donovan Solano will have an edge today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Framber Valdez as the 12th-best starter in the game right now.

Throwing 95.5 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Framber Valdez places him the 92nd percentile.

Today’s version of the Padres projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .320 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .331 overall projected rate.

Chris Conroy profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be umping today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Jurickson Profar is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Jurickson Profar will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Framber Valdez in this game.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Jurickson Profar will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Manny Machado is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Manny Machado will have an advantage in today’s game.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alex Bregman’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (20.9° in the last two weeks’ worth of games) is quite a bit better than his 13.1° seasonal mark.

Alex Bregman has been unlucky this year, notching a .323 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .342 — a .019 difference.

Jackson Merrill has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 97.5-mph over the last 7 days.

Jackson Merrill has put up a .300 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Yordan Alvarez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Yordan Alvarez’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, going from 44.2% on the season to 51.4% over the last two weeks.

Yainer Diaz has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 16.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount lower than his 19.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

Manny Machado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Luis Arraez will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 10th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 14.1% seasonal rate to 26.7% in the last week’s worth of games.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s judgement, Dylan Cease’s overall pitching talent ranks in the 93rd percentile among all SPs in MLB currently.

Dylan Cease has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 10.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starter.

Kyle Higashioka, the Padres’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Jason Heyward’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, going from 42.9% on the season to 62.5% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Framber Valdez in the 80th percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 9th-best field in the league for strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Donovan Solano hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Donovan Solano will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

When estimating his strikeout talent, Dylan Cease projects as the 12th-best SP in baseball right now, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Jeremy Pena has posted a .277 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

With a .274 batting average this year, Jeremy Pena has performed in the 82nd percentile.

Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Xander Bogaerts will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Luis Arraez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.5-mph to 88.5-mph in the last two weeks.

Compared to his seasonal average of 14.3°, Jose Altuve has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 22.3° angle over the past 14 days.

Jose Altuve has notched a .353 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 87th percentile.

Negative Match Player Stats with Astros vs Padres Series Game 3

Petco Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which generally leads to worse offense.

This game is expected to have the 2nd-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Over the past 7 days, Xander Bogaerts’s 23.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 41.7%.

Xander Bogaerts has compiled a .290 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, grading out in the 22nd percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

This year, Xander Bogaerts’s flyball exit velocity (a reliable standard to evaluate power) is in the 16th percentile at 89.6 mph.

Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

Framber Valdez will have the handedness advantage against Jackson Merrill in today’s game.

In the last week’s worth of games, Jackson Merrill’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.1% down to 0%.

Jeremy Pena has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

Dylan Cease will hold the platoon advantage against Jeremy Pena in today’s matchup.

Jeremy Pena will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Over the last 7 days, Jeremy Pena’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

Dylan Cease will have the handedness advantage over Alex Bregman in today’s matchup.

Alex Bregman will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Alex Bregman’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 89.2-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 85.1-mph over the last 7 days.

Yordan Alvarez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Over the past 7 days, Yordan Alvarez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.4% down to 9.1%.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Yordan Alvarez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal mark of 93.7 mph to 89.6 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jason Heyward in the 10th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Jason Heyward is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.

Jason Heyward has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 26% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

The #5 stadium in the majors for suppressing base hits to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

Dylan Cease will have the handedness advantage over Yainer Diaz in today’s game.

Yainer Diaz has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Kyle Tucker pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Kyle Tucker today.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.9) may lead us to conclude that Kyle Tucker has had positive variance on his side this year with his 40.4 actual HR/600.

The #5 park in the game for suppressing BABIP to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

Batting from the same side that Framber Valdez throws from, Luis Arraez meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Luis Arraez’s launch angle recently (7.6° in the past 7 days) is a significant dropoff from his 13.4° seasonal mark.

Luis Arraez has paced 1.6 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 2nd percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Luis Arraez has paced 3.2 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 1st percentile for power.

Batting from the same side that Dylan Cease throws from, Jose Altuve encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

Jose Altuve will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Over the past week, Jose Altuve’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.7% down to 0%.

Over the past 14 days, Jose Altuve’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 90.4 mph to 86.1 mph.

Donovan Solano’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 90.2-mph EV last year has dropped to 87.1-mph.

Over the past two weeks, Donovan Solano’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 90.5 mph to 86.2 mph.

Donovan Solano’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off of late, going from 50% on the season to 41.2% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Projected catcher Yainer Diaz profiles as a weak pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for home runs.

Framber Valdez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Jurickson Profar has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 7.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week.

In the last 7 days, Jurickson Profar’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal figure of 92.4 mph to 80.3 mph.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.7°, Xander Bogaerts has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.8°) over the past 14 days.

Yainer Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Despite posting a .369 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jurickson Profar has experienced some positive variance given the .046 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .323.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez in the 1st percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 9.8°, Fernando Tatis Jr. has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2.1°) in the past 14 days.

From last year to this one, Manny Machado’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 17.7% to 12%.

The 3rd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Houston Astros.

It may be smart to expect better results for the Houston Astros offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

The San Diego Padres (18.7 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone set of hitters of the day.

Framber Valdez’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this season (93.5 mph) below where it was last year (94.7 mph).

Over the past two weeks, Kyle Tucker’s 20% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 24.9%.

Dylan Cease will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his metrics across the board.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 23rd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Framber Valdez has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed batters in this game.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Houston Astros with a 18.4% underlying K%.

Dylan Cease’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2497 rpm) has been a significant dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2556 rpm).

Considering the 0.03 discrepancy between Dylan Cease’s 10.99 K/9 and his 10.97 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year in terms of strikeouts and figures to see worse results going forward.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 18th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Jason Heyward pulls many of his flyballs (37.4% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

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