Padres @ D-Backs Series Game 4 Matchup Details

Positives for the San Diego Padres Series Game 4 Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

,Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 4th-best venue in the majors for run-scoring.

,Jackson Merrill has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 10.9% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,In the last 14 days, Jackson Merrill’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.5-mph over the course of the season to 98.7-mph of late.

,Jake Cronenworth’s launch angle of late (22° in the past week’s worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 8.1° seasonal mark.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Cronenworth’s true offensive talent to be a .313, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .040 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

,Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.

,Chase Field grades out as the #3 park in baseball for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output.

,Lars Nootbaar will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today’s matchup.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.

,Corbin Carroll will have the handedness advantage against Walker Buehler today.

,Jase Bowen will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kohl Drake in today’s game.

,Jase Bowen has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph to 98.5-mph over the past week.

,Over the past 7 days, Jase Bowen has displayed impressive power, recording a a 14.3% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power).

,When assessing his overall offensive ability, Manny Machado ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Manny Machado will have the handedness advantage over Kohl Drake in today’s matchup.

,Manny Machado’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, rising from 40.8% on the season to 57.1% over the last 14 days.

,Luis Campusano will have the handedness advantage against Kohl Drake in today’s game.

,Luis Campusano has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 90-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 87.9-mph mark.

,Luis Campusano has recorded a .269 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season, placing in the 77th percentile.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 17th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

,Batting from the opposite that Kohl Drake throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have an advantage today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

,The #3 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

,Batting from the opposite that Kohl Drake throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

,Bats such as Xander Bogaerts with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kohl Drake who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

,Tim Tawa will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

,In the last week’s worth of games, Tim Tawa’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.3% up to 14.3%.

,Tim Tawa has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 92.2-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 11.4°, Tim Tawa has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 21.8° figure in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Corbin Carroll will hold that advantage today.

,Ryan Waldschmidt’s BABIP skill is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Ryan Waldschmidt will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Ryan Waldschmidt has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph to 91-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage over Walker Buehler today.

,Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Max Kepler will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Max Kepler’s launch angle this year (19.7°) is significantly higher than his 16.5° mark last year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

,Ty France has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Ty France will have the handedness advantage against Kohl Drake in today’s game.

,Geraldo Perdomo is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.

,The switch-hitting Geraldo Perdomo will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Walker Buehler.

,Geraldo Perdomo will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

,Over the last 7 days, Geraldo Perdomo’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.6% up to 11.1%.

,When estimating his overall offensive skill, Ty France ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Ty France has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.5-mph average to last season’s 89.6-mph figure.

,Gabriel Moreno’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Gabriel Moreno will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today.

,Nolan Arenado has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal EV of 89.3-mph.

,Nolan Arenado’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 38.1% to 44.8%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ketel Marte in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,Ketel Marte is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Ketel Marte will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

,Despite posting a .319 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ketel Marte has experienced some negative variance given the .036 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .355.

,Walker Buehler has gone to his cut-fastball 7% more often this season (24.2%) than he did last season (17.2%).

,Walker Buehler has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his ERA this year; his 5.18 rate is a good deal higher than his 4.56 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

,Luis Rengifo is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

,As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Luis Rengifo will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Kohl Drake today.

,Extreme groundball hitters like Luis Rengifo usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kohl Drake.

,Over the past two weeks, Luis Rengifo’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.2-mph over the course of the season to 95.3-mph recently.

,Grading out in the 78th percentile, Luis Campusano has put up a .259 batting average since the start of last season.

,Xander Bogaerts has been unlucky this year, notching a .291 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .329 — a .038 gap.

,Extreme groundball batters like Fernando Tatis Jr. tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Kohl Drake.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kohl Drake in the 11th percentile when assessing his overall pitching abilities.

,It may be smart to expect positive regression for the San Diego Padres offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

,With 7 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected offense, Kohl Drake will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.

,As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jackson Merrill ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Compared to his seasonal average of 14.3°, Jackson Merrill has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 27.5° angle in the past 7 days.

,Walker Buehler will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

,Max Kepler has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 21.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 26.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Manny Machado has hit one of the hardest balls in baseball over the last 14 days — 110-mph — which is a good proxy for recent form and raw power.

,Manny Machado has been unlucky this year, posting a .309 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .343 — a .034 difference.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

,Xander Bogaerts has shown strong plate discipline this year, grading out in the 87th percentile with a 1.53 K/BB rate.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 17.7°, Ryan Waldschmidt has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 31° figure in the past week’s worth of games.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Rengifo in the 77th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

,As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Geraldo Perdomo ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Lars Nootbaar will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,Geraldo Perdomo’s launch angle in recent games (20.2° over the last two weeks) is a significant increase over his 14.5° seasonal mark.

,As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Compared to his seasonal average of 11.9°, Gabriel Moreno has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 28.5° mark over the last week.

,Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher metrics in all categories, and Kohl Drake will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Negatives with the Arizona Diamondbacks Series Game 4 Game Today

The 3rd-deepest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Chase Field.

,Chase Field has the 10th-tallest average fence height in the majors.

,This game is projected to have the 5th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

,Kohl Drake will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jackson Merrill today.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.

,Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Hitting from the same side that Kohl Drake throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have a tough matchup today.

,In today’s game, Lars Nootbaar is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 41.2% rate (100th percentile).

,There has been a significant decline in Lars Nootbaar’s launch angle from last season’s 15.9° to 7° this year.

,Lars Nootbaar’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, decreasing from 39% on the season to 24.1% over the past 14 days.

,Corbin Carroll pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,In the last 7 days, Corbin Carroll’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.3% down to 7.1%.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jase Bowen ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Jase Bowen is penciled in 9th in the lineup today.

,This year, Jase Bowen has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 51% of his appearances when starting against left-handed pitcher.

,The #3 park in MLB for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

,Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Manny Machado in today’s matchup.

,Luis Campusano is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

,38% of the time that Luis Campusano has started against a left-handed pitcher since the start of last season, he has been pinch hit for.

,Luis Campusano hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

,Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. in today’s game.

,Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

,Xander Bogaerts will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

,Tim Tawa is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Walker Buehler will hold the platoon advantage against Tim Tawa today.

,Chase Field projects as the #24 park in the majors for lefty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Fernando Tatis Jr. has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 10.6% seasonal rate has fallen to 2.9% over the last two weeks.

,Tim Tawa’s BABIP ability is projected in the 24th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Ryan Waldschmidt is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Batting from the same side that Walker Buehler throws from, Ryan Waldschmidt encounters a tough challenge today.

,Today, Ryan Waldschmidt is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.8% rate (90th percentile).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Kepler in the 11th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

,Max Kepler has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

,When starting against a northpaw this year, Max Kepler has been pinch hit for 26% of the time.

,In today’s matchup, Max Kepler is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.5% rate (84th percentile).

,This year, Ty France has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 10% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter.

,Ty France has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Ty France will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 16th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

,In the past week’s worth of games, Geraldo Perdomo’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal mark of 88.6 mph to 84.3 mph.

,Tim Tawa hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Walker Buehler will hold the platoon advantage over Gabriel Moreno today.

,Today, Gabriel Moreno is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.7% rate (99th percentile).

,Gabriel Moreno’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 89.3-mph seasonal average has lowered to 83.2-mph over the last week.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 5th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

,Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Jase Bowen hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

,As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Ketel Marte will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side against Walker Buehler in this game.

,In today’s game, Ketel Marte is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.7% rate (93rd percentile).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Walker Buehler in the 25th percentile as it relates to his overall pitching talent level.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Walker Buehler to throw 84 pitches in this game (7th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks projected offense ranks as the 5th-weakest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.

,It is expected that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Quinn Wolcott) behind the plate in this game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best park in the league for BABIP.

,Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Rengifo in the 5th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

,In today’s matchup, Luis Rengifo is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.1% rate (82nd percentile).

,Manny Machado’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 92.9-mph average last season has lowered to 90.5-mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Gabriel Moreno’s true offensive skill to be a .332, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .025 deviation between that mark and his actual .357 wOBA.

,Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 20.2% underlying K%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the worst field in baseball for strikeouts.

,In the past 7 days, Ketel Marte’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.2% down to 0%.

,Kohl Drake is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #27 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.

,Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Luis Rengifo in today’s game.

,There has been a significant decline in Luis Rengifo’s launch angle from last year’s 7.4° to 4.1° this year.

,By putting up a .257 BABIP this year, Geraldo Perdomo is positioned in the 12th percentile.

,Ryan Waldschmidt has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.9% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week.

,Batting from the same side that Walker Buehler throws from, Nolan Arenado will have a tough matchup in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kohl Drake to throw 81 pitches in this matchup (2nd-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

,Ketel Marte’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 90.2-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 82.9-mph in the past two weeks.

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