As of late Tuesday morning, most books had Ole Miss (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) installed as a one or 1.5-point home favorite for Saturday’s showdown vs. LSU. Most spots had the Rebels -2.5 on Monday afternoon, but Circa was all alone at pick ’em by Tuesday morning.
The total was 54.5 points at most spots.
LSU is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three games as a road underdog during Brian Kelly’s four-year tenure. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is 15-13-1 ATS in 29 games as a home favorite on Lane Kiffin’s watch.
In the last nine head-to-head meetings between these bitter rivals, LSU has posted a 7-2 SU record and a 6-3 ATS mark. However, the Rebels have prevailed in the last two encounters at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. They won a 55-49 decision as 2.5-point home underdogs in 2023 and prevailed by a 31-17 score as eight-point ‘chalk’ in 2021.
We’ll know much more about injuries when the first Availability Report is released on the SEC’s website at 8:10 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday night. For now, we know that LSU starting DE Gabe Reliford is ‘out’ and that starting RB Caden Durham is considered day to day with an ankle issue.
Reliford has eight tackles so far this year, while Durham has 196 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 45 carries.
As for Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons and the ankle injury he’s been dealing with since injuring it in the fourth quarter at Kentucky in Week 2, we can’t trust anything that comes out of Kiffin’s mouth (or that he puts on the Availability Report). Whatever the case, this space feels as if QB Trinidad Chambliss has earned the starting gig (regardless of how close to 100-percent healthy Simmons is) moving forward with his play in the last two weeks.
When Jay Greeson and I recorded our video preview for LSU at Ole Miss on Monday afternoon for Southeastern 16’s YouTube channel, I pointed out how this is the lowest total in this rivalry in more than a decade. In fact, since Kiffin arrived in Oxford in 2020, the totals for LSU-Ole Miss games have been 75.5, 75.5 (again), 66.5, 66.5 (again) and 64 points. Therefore, this total is lower than any other since Kiffin has coached the Rebels by 9.5 points.
The combined scores in the last five head-to-head meetings have been 101, 48, 65, 104 and 55 points, although we’ll concede that last year’s 55 combined points required overtime to get ‘over’ 54.5 points. I say ‘over’ 54.5 points since that’s this week’s total, but it was an ‘under’ last year with a total of 64.
In 2025, Ole Miss has seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 to date. The Rebels have had combined scores of 70, 53, 76 and 55 points.
In the two games with Chambliss starting for the injured Simmons, Ole Miss has produced 41 and 45 points in wins over Arkansas and Tulane, respectively. Chambliss has looked spectacular, completing 42-of-62 (67.7%) passes for 719 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. He’s also run for 195 yards and two TDs while averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
LSU’s defense has looked outstanding this season but the last time we checked, Clemson, La. Tech, Florida and Southeastern weren’t scoring many touchdowns. In fact, the Gators had only seven points, seven first downs and 141 yards of total offense this past weekend in a loss at Miami.
Billy Napier’s offense had 19 first downs, 16 points and 355 yards of offense against South Florida, but it managed 23 first downs and 366 yards at LSU. Those numbers would’ve been much better in Baton Rouge if not for a garbage holding call negating an 87-yard TD pass.
Ole Miss gave up 29 first downs, 526 yards and 35 points at home vs. Arkansas two weeks ago. Hell, even a Kentucky offense led by a washed-up Zach Calzada at QB produced 359 yards, 18 first downs and 23 points against the Rebels.
Kiffin took to Twitter last night with this gem of a post: “Take the over.”
It was a reply to a post by OutKick’s Trey Wallace about Landry Kiffin, Lane’s daughter, posting a picture on her Instagram account of her sitting in LSU LB Whit Weeks’s lap. Whether Lane was implying something about his daughter’s relationship with Weeks (and how long it’ll last) or that his offense was going to score points galore on the defense Weeks plays for, is unclear.
Regardless, we like what Lane’s thinking, and we liked the ‘over’ before seeing his social-media activity.
PREDICTION: Let’s risk 1.65 units to win 1.5 units on LSU at Ole Miss ‘over’ 54.5 points.