
SF @ SEA





Positive Match Player Stats for Giants vs Mariners Series Game 3
Justin Turner is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.
T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest fences among all major league parks.
Home runs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in MLB.
Justin Turner will have the handedness advantage against Robbie Ray in today’s matchup.
Justin Turner will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Cal Raleigh projects as the 11th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Cal Raleigh will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Cal Raleigh has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.8-mph average to last year’s 89.6-mph EV.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Fitzgerald in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.
Tyler Fitzgerald has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.
Tyler Fitzgerald pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Tyler Fitzgerald’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, rising from 22.5% on the season to 28.1% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
Compared to his seasonal average of 20.6°, Cal Raleigh has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 27.7° mark in the last 14 days.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.342) may lead us to conclude that Cal Raleigh has been unlucky this year with his .315 actual wOBA.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mitch Haniger in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.
Batting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Mitch Haniger will have an advantage in today’s game.
Mitch Haniger will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.
When it comes to his home run skill, Dylan Moore ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Hitting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Dylan Moore will have an edge in today’s matchup.
Dylan Moore pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.4% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Dylan Moore will hold that advantage today.
Thairo Estrada pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Thairo Estrada’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, going from 11.8% on the season to 22.2% over the last week.
Despite posting a .258 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Thairo Estrada has suffered from bad luck given the .035 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .293.
Because of Bryan Woo’s large platoon split, Mike Yastrzemski will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.
The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mike Yastrzemski stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects LaMonte Wade Jr. in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.
LaMonte Wade Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.
LaMonte Wade Jr. will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryan Woo today… and moreover, Woo has a large platoon split.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.
Randy Arozarena will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Robbie Ray in today’s matchup.
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Michael Conforto ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Michael Conforto is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.
Considering Bryan Woo’s large platoon split, Michael Conforto will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today’s matchup.
Grant McCray will have the handedness advantage against Bryan Woo in today’s game… and even better, Woo has a large platoon split.
The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Grant McCray has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
Grant McCray has been hot recently, notching a a 27.3% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) in the past 14 days.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.
Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.
Heliot Ramos has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
Heliot Ramos has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 16.3% seasonal rate to 36.4% over the last 7 days.
As it relates to his BABIP skill, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Julio Rodriguez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
Batting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Julio Rodriguez will have an advantage today.
As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Leonardo Rivas will get to bat from his good side against Robbie Ray in today’s game.
Leonardo Rivas pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.2% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
Leonardo Rivas will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
Over the past two weeks, Leonardo Rivas has averaged an impressive 96.8-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced proxy for home run potential.
Matt Chapman projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Matt Chapman is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.
Matt Chapman has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph figure.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.
Sporting a .349 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Matt Chapman grades out in the 87th percentile for hitting ability.
Curt Casali’s quickness has improved this season. His 23.66 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.4 ft/sec now.
In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Curt Casali ranks in the 90th percentile with a 19.4° launch angle, which is one of the steepest angles in the league.
Curt Casali has shown strong plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 88th percentile with a 1.74 K/BB rate.
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Jorge Polanco is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.
Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jorge Polanco will hold that advantage today.
The Seattle Mariners have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games, The 4th-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in T-Mobile Park.
With 9 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Robbie Ray will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
Robbie Ray will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.
When it comes to his strikeout talent, Robbie Ray projects as the 13th-best starting pitcher in the majors currently, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Robbie Ray has averaged 93.4 adjusted pitches per GS this year, placing in the 82nd percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the best ballpark in MLB for strikeouts.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leonardo Rivas in the 79th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.
Considering the 1.63 disparity between Bryan Woo’s 2.12 ERA and his 3.75 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year and figures to perform worse the rest of the season.
Bryan Woo has notched a .233 BABIP this year, a sign that he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.
Julio Rodriguez projects as the 19th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Michael Conforto will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Fitzgerald in the 79th percentile when estimating his home run talent.
In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Polanco has had bad variance on his side this year. His .294 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .322.
Julio Rodriguez will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 87th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.
The San Francisco Giants have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Fitzgerald, Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman, Grant McCray).
Grant McCray has displayed some good exit velocity statistics lately, averaging 99.2-mph on his flyballs over the last 14 days.
Justin Turner has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 89.9-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 86.6-mph figure.
Placing in the 97th percentile, Tyler Fitzgerald has posted a .400 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.
Over the last two weeks, Heliot Ramos’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.1-mph over the course of the season to 99.9-mph recently.
Mitch Haniger has been unlucky this year, putting up a .285 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .028 disparity.
This year, Mitch Haniger has an average exit velocity of 90.5 mph, which is one of the best in the majors at the 75th percentile.
Randy Arozarena will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
LaMonte Wade Jr. will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.
When estimating his home run ability, Mike Yastrzemski ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Dylan Moore’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (24.7° over the past 14 days) is considerably better than his 17.8° seasonal figure.
Dylan Moore has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .200 figure is a good deal lower than his .217 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Negative Match Player Stats with Giants vs Mariners Series Game 3
The #1 stadium in baseball for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.
This contest is projected to have the most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Extreme groundball batters like Justin Turner usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Robbie Ray.
Justin Turner’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 89.5-mph EV last season has fallen off to 86.6-mph.
Using Statcast data, Justin Turner is in the 24th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 12.500.
Cal Raleigh has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.
The #10 field in baseball for suppressing home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.
Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense.
Extreme groundball hitters like Cal Raleigh tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Robbie Ray.
Bryan Woo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Fitzgerald today… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Woo’s large platoon split.
Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Tyler Fitzgerald in today’s matchup.
Cal Raleigh’s BABIP skill is projected in the 7th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
T-Mobile Park projects as the #28 park in MLB for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Mitch Haniger is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
When starting against a lefty hurler this year, Mitch Haniger has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 11% of the time.
Mitch Haniger’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, falling from 18.4% to 14.8%.
Dylan Moore is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
11% of the time that Dylan Moore has started against a lefty hurler this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thairo Estrada in the 25th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.
Thairo Estrada is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Yastrzemski in the 16th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.
Mike Yastrzemski is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.
Mike Yastrzemski has been pulled from the game early 22% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.
LaMonte Wade Jr. has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 22% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.
T-Mobile Park grades out as the #21 ballpark in baseball for left-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
LaMonte Wade Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
In the past 7 days, LaMonte Wade Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.5% down to 0%.
In the last two weeks, Randy Arozarena’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 0%.
In the past two weeks, Randy Arozarena’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 93.8 mph to 88.6 mph.
Randy Arozarena’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, falling from 15% on the season to 0% over the past week.
Michael Conforto will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.
Michael Conforto’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 89.4-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 81.8-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
Michael Conforto’s launch angle of late (5.1° over the last two weeks) is quite a bit lower than his 15° seasonal figure.
Michael Conforto’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, decreasing from 38.1% on the season to 28.6% in the last two weeks.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Grant McCray in the 13th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.
Grant McCray is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.
Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Grant McCray in today’s game.
Bryan Woo will have the handedness advantage over Heliot Ramos in today’s game… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Woo’s large platoon split.
Heliot Ramos will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.
Grant McCray’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 11th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
In the last 7 days, Julio Rodriguez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.4% down to 0%.
In the past 14 days, Julio Rodriguez’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 93.5 mph to 89.4 mph.
Julio Rodriguez’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased recently, falling from 40.9% on the season to 30.8% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
As it relates to his home run ability, Leonardo Rivas ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Leonardo Rivas is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup.
Bryan Woo will hold the platoon advantage over Matt Chapman in today’s game… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Woo’s large platoon split.
Matt Chapman will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.
Matt Chapman’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (9.2°) is quite a bit lower than his 13.3° angle last year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Curt Casali in the 8th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.
Curt Casali is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in today’s game.
Curt Casali has been pulled from the game early 18% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.
Typically, hitters like Jorge Polanco who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Robbie Ray.
Jorge Polanco has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 10.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 7 days.
Brock Ballou grades out as a Pitchers Umpire and is expected to be calling pitches today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the worst park in the league for batting average.
Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #22 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
Given that flyball batters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Robbie Ray (39.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 4 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected offense.
Robbie Ray has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, posting a 12.20 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 11.01 — a 1.19 K/9 gap.
Leonardo Rivas’s recent inconsistency with his launch angle – which has resulted in a 22.3° standard deviation over the past two weeks – is indicative of poor form at the plate.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s assessment, Bryan Woo’s overall pitching ability is in the 89th percentile out of all starting pitchers in the game right now.
The San Francisco Giants have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games, Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Julio Rodriguez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, falling from 14.4% on the season to 6.3% over the last 7 days.
The #1 venue in the game for suppressing batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Bryan Woo is projected to throw 83 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least of all pitchers on the slate.
Given Bryan Woo’s large platoon split, Thairo Estrada will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Curt Casali in the 21st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
Checking in at the 23rd percentile, Bryan Woo has posted an 18.8% K% this year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Moore in the 21st percentile when assessing his batting average ability.
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