Phillies @ Braves Matchup Details

Positives for the Philadelphia Phillies Game Today

Chris Sale projects as the 7th-best SP in Major League Baseball right now, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Compared to the average starting pitcher, Chris Sale has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 7.5 adjusted pitches each game.

,Among all major league stadiums, Truist Park’s LF dimensions are the 3rd-deepest.

,Chris Sale will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his metrics across the board.

,In his last game started, Chris Sale was in good form and conceded 0 ER.

,Bryce Harper projects as the 8th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 4th-best ballpark in the game for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

,The #4 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.

,J.T. Realmuto will have the handedness advantage over Chris Sale in today’s game… and the cherry on top, Sale has a huge platoon split.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

,Alec Bohm is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Aaron Nola in the 81st percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.

,Aaron Nola has averaged 92.7 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, checking in at the 81st percentile.

,In his last start, Aaron Nola was in good form and put up 7 strikeouts.

,Aaron Nola has gone to his four-seam fastball 6.2% less often this year (24%) than he did last year (30.2%).

,Placing in the 75th percentile, Aaron Nola posted an 11.8% Swinging Strike rate this year.

,As it relates to his home run skill, Matt Olson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Matt Olson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.

,In MLB, Truist Park’s centerfield dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

,The #5 stadium in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.

,Austin Riley hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 85th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

,Bryson Stott hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 79th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

,Bryson Stott has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 6% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last week’s worth of games.

,Truist Park grades out as the #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the league.

,Ronald Acuna Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

,Chris Sale projects as the 3rd-best SP in Major League Baseball right now when it comes to his strikeout ability, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Placing in the 89th percentile, Chris Sale notched a 13.6% Swinging Strike% this year.

,Chris Sale has recorded a 32.5% Strikeout% this year, ranking in the 98th percentile.

,Mauricio Dubon is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Mauricio Dubon will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as baseball’s 3rd-best home run batter.

,Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

,As it relates to his batting average talent, Trea Turner is projected as the 20th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Trea Turner is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.

,When assessing his batting average ability, Luis Arraez is projected as the 4th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Luis Arraez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, J.T. Realmuto ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,J.T. Realmuto has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 92-mph.

,When assessing his overall offensive ability, Drake Baldwin ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Drake Baldwin is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,Michael Harris II is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.

,When estimating his home run skill, Austin Riley ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

,Derek Hill will have the handedness advantage against Chris Sale in today’s matchup… and moreover, Sale has a huge platoon split.

,Michael Harris II’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,When estimating his overall offensive skill, Matt Olson ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edmundo Sosa in the 80th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

,Edmundo Sosa will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale today… and the cherry on top, Sale has a huge platoon split.

,Mauricio Dubon’s launch angle of late (21.6° in the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 15.9° seasonal mark.

,With a 0.6 gap between Aaron Nola’s 4.76 ERA and his 4.16 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and ought to see better results in future games.

,Edmundo Sosa hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,This season, Edmundo Sosa has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 94.7 mph compared to last year’s 90.8 mph mark.

,Austin Riley will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

,Drake Baldwin will hold the platoon advantage over Aaron Nola today.

,As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Trea Turner ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Trea Turner will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today’s matchup… and even better, Sale has a huge platoon split.

,When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alec Bohm ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Alec Bohm will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today’s game… and the cherry on top, Sale has a huge platoon split.

,Ronald Acuna Jr. will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

,Kyle Schwarber projects as the 20th-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Using Statcast data, Derek Hill ranks in the 91st percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .350.

,This year, Derek Hill’s 10.8% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 78th percentile among his peers.

,Compared to last year, Luis Arraez has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.1% to 19.4% this season.

,As it relates to plate discipline, Luis Arraez’s talent is quite strong, posting a 0.98 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 99th percentile.

,In the last 7 days, Bryce Harper’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.6%.

Negatives with the Atlanta Braves Game Today

The Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup profiles as the 4th-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.

,The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games,The #8 venue in MLB for boosting BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.

,Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense.

,A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 84°.

,Given Chris Sale’s huge platoon split, Bryce Harper will be at a tremendous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate today.

,Bryce Harper has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

,Bryce Harper will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

,Bryce Harper has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week.

,Over the last two weeks, Bryce Harper’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 94.6 mph to 87.5 mph.

,J.T. Realmuto is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,J.T. Realmuto will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,In the past 7 days, J.T. Realmuto’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.1% down to 0%.

,J.T. Realmuto’s launch angle in recent games (-23° over the last 7 days) is considerably worse than his 11.3° seasonal mark.

,Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Alec Bohm today.

,Alec Bohm’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, going from 15.9% on the season to 0% over the past week.

,Alec Bohm has compiled a .266 BABIP this year, checking in at the 20th percentile.

,Truist Park profiles as the #23 ballpark in the majors for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Aaron Nola today.

,Aaron Nola has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 9.41 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.18 — a 0.22 K/9 difference.

,Over the last 14 days, Matt Olson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.8% down to 0%.

,Matt Olson’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, falling from 15.5% on the season to 0% in the last week.

,Austin Riley is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Aaron Nola will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Austin Riley in today’s matchup.

,With a .286 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Austin Riley is positioned in the 13th percentile.

,In terms of plate discipline, Austin Riley’s skill is quite bad, posting a 4.16 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 8th percentile.

,Bryson Stott is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

,Chris Sale will hold the platoon advantage against Bryson Stott in today’s game… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Sale’s huge platoon split.

,Bryson Stott will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,Bryson Stott has performed at a clip of 12.3 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, ranking in the 21st percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Ranking in the 18th percentile for power, Bryson Stott has hit 10.7 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.

,Aaron Nola will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ronald Acuna Jr. today.

,Ronald Acuna Jr.’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 92.5-mph average last season has dropped to 90.5-mph.

,Chris Sale’s slider utilization has dropped by 7.3% from last season to this one (47.3% to 40%) .

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 20th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

,Aaron Nola will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mauricio Dubon in today’s game.

,In the past two weeks, Mauricio Dubon’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 87.5 mph to 81.6 mph.

,Mauricio Dubon’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off in recent games, decreasing from 45.6% on the season to 15.4% over the last 7 days.

,Chris Sale will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Schwarber today… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Sale’s huge platoon split.

,Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Kyle Schwarber today.

,Despite posting a .374 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kyle Schwarber has had some very good luck given the .022 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .352.

,Trea Turner will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

,Trea Turner’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, decreasing from 41.6% on the season to 28.6% in the last 14 days.

,Trea Turner’s footspeed has dropped off this year. His 30.28 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.81 ft/sec now.

,Sporting a .294 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Trea Turner grades out in the 19th percentile.

,Trea Turner has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, ranking in the 19th percentile with a 3.34 K/BB rate.

,Chris Sale will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Arraez in today’s matchup… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Sale’s huge platoon split.

,Luis Arraez has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,Luis Arraez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

,Over the last two weeks, Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 87.7 mph to 84.5 mph.

,Luis Arraez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased lately, falling from 19.4% on the season to 8.6% over the past two weeks.

,Today, Drake Baldwin is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.7% rate (94th percentile).

,Drake Baldwin has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 12.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 7 days.

,Drake Baldwin’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 91.6-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 84.1-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

,Michael Harris II has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 10.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

,Michael Harris II’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 94.1-mph seasonal average has lowered to 90.5-mph in the last week.

,Michael Harris II’s launch angle of late (-5.3° over the past 7 days) is quite a bit lower than his 9.4° seasonal angle.

,Michael Harris II has been lucky this year, putting up a .343 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .322 — a .021 difference.

,In terms of plate discipline, Michael Harris II’s ability is quite weak, posting a 5.25 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 3rd percentile.

,Derek Hill is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Derek Hill in today’s matchup.

,This year, there has been a decline in Derek Hill’s footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.15 ft/sec last year to 29.49 ft/sec currently.

,Derek Hill has been lucky this year, compiling a .317 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .289 — a .028 disparity.

,Edmundo Sosa is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.

,Edmundo Sosa will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,This season, there has been a decline in Edmundo Sosa’s quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.43 ft/sec last year to 28.61 ft/sec currently.

,In terms of plate discipline, Edmundo Sosa’s skill is quite poor, putting up a 6.62 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 16th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 10th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mauricio Dubon’s true offensive skill to be a .283, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .021 gap between that figure and his actual .304 wOBA.

,With a 4.82 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that is concerned with the aspects of pitching most within the pitcher’s control), Aaron Nola places in the 19th percentile.

,When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs), Edmundo Sosa and his 12.1% rank in the 21st percentile this year.

,Atlanta ranks as the #27 team in the game when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (42.2% rate this year).

,Chris Sale has put up a 2.37 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that is concerned with the things a pitcher has the most control over) this year, grading out in the 99th percentile.

,Trea Turner and his 6.9° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 12th percentile, among the lowest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.

,Using Statcast metrics, Alec Bohm grades out in the 13th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 8.800.

,Posting a 5.72 K/BB rate this year, Derek Hill has demonstrated weak plate discipline, checking in at the 18th percentile.

,When assessing his home run ability, Luis Arraez ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

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