Falcons vs Buccaneers Match Player Stats | Week 15 Thursday 2025

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ATL @ TB

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 15 Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Todays Game is on Thursday, December 11th
11/12/25 20:15:00 PM EST Kickoff

Positives for the Atlanta Falcons Game Today

A passing game script is suggested by the Falcons being a -4.5-point underdog this week.

The model projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.6 targets in this week’s game, on balance, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Kyle Pitts’s 22.1% Target% this season illustrates a substantial improvement in his air attack volume over last season’s 13.7% figure.

Kyle Pitts has totaled quite a few more air yards this season (49.0 per game) than he did last season (36.0 per game).

The Atlanta offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.

The Falcons cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

The predictive model expects the Falcons to be the most run-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 45.0% run rate.

The predictive model expects Bijan Robinson to total 18.8 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.

Bijan Robinson has garnered 64.0% of his team’s rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.

With an exceptional tally of 3.76 yards after contact (93rd percentile), Bijan Robinson has been as one of the toughest running backs in football this year.

This year, the porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been gouged for a monstrous 241.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 9th-most in the league.

This year, the feeble Buccaneers defense has conceded the 10th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to the opposing side: a monstrous 7.75 yards.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buccaneers to run on 47.0% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

Opposing squads have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (132 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, Atlanta’s collection of DTs has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

Negatives with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Today

Right now, the least pass-focused offense in football (55.0% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.

The projections expect the Falcons to run the 10th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Kyle Pitts’s 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year signifies a material drop-off in his effectiveness in the open field over last year’s 5.0% rate.

The Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against TEs this year, yielding 6.92 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the league.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the best safety corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

A rushing game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a 4.5-point favorite in this game.

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers as the 7th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 8th-most sluggish paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buccaneers.

Opposing QBs teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Falcons, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (just 30.9 per game) this year.

Baker Mayfield has passed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (196.0) this season than he did last season (274.0).

Bijan Robinson has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (71.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

Kirk Cousins has passed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (137.0) this year than he did last year (240.0).

Kirk Cousins’s throwing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 65.6% to 60.6%.

Kirk Cousins’s pass-game efficiency has declined this season, totaling just 5.97 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.42 figure last season.

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