
SF @ ARI






Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Monday, September 23rd
23/09/24 21:40:00 PM EST First Pitch
Positive Match Player Stats for Giants vs D-Backs Matchup Today
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Mark Canha ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Mark Canha is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.
The #3 field in the league for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.
Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output.
The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 11° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.
Chase Field projects as the #3 field in the game for batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Eduardo Rodriguez’s 91.3-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 24th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.
Eugenio Suarez will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
Ketel Marte projects as the 15th-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Ketel Marte is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.
Chase Field projects as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Hayden Birdsong in the 81st percentile among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game) projects as an elite pitch framer.
Due to his reverse platoon split, Hayden Birdsong will benefit from being matched up with 6 batters in the projected batting order of the opposite hand in today’s matchup.
Hayden Birdsong’s 95.1-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 87th percentile among all SPs.
Placing in the 79th percentile, Hayden Birdsong has compiled a 24.8% strikeout rate this year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.
Christian Walker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.
Tyler Fitzgerald’s BABIP talent is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Tyler Fitzgerald is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.
Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.
Heliot Ramos is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.302) implies that Patrick Bailey has had some very poor luck this year with his .281 actual wOBA.
Grant McCray has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 102.2-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal mark of 97.9-mph.
Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Ketel Marte will hold that advantage today.
Hitting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Casey Schmitt will have an advantage in today’s matchup.
Casey Schmitt’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 16.4% on the season to 28.6% in the past 7 days.
Grant McCray’s BABIP skill is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jerar Encarnacion in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.
Jerar Encarnacion is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.
Matt Chapman projects as the 12th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Matt Chapman is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.
Batting from the opposite that Hayden Birdsong throws from, Jake McCarthy will have an advantage in today’s matchup.
Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jake McCarthy will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Last year, Jake McCarthy had an average launch angle of 11.1° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 14.2°.
Mark Canha will have the handedness advantage over Eduardo Rodriguez today.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.257) implies that Patrick Bailey has had some very poor luck this year with his .237 actual batting average.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.
Joc Pederson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.
The San Francisco Giants have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Fitzgerald, Grant McCray, Jerar Encarnacion, Heliot Ramos).
Eduardo Rodriguez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats across the board.
In his last start, Eduardo Rodriguez was on point and compiled 11 strikeouts.
Corbin Carroll will hold the platoon advantage against Hayden Birdsong in today’s matchup.
The Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order ranks as the best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
Hayden Birdsong will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jerar Encarnacion in the 83rd percentile when assessing his home run ability.
Batting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Jerar Encarnacion will have an advantage in today’s game.
Geraldo Perdomo will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.
Sporting a 1.79 K/BB rate this year, Geraldo Perdomo has displayed strong plate discipline, grading out in the 86th percentile.
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 88th percentile when estimating his home run skill.
Heliot Ramos will hold the platoon advantage against Eduardo Rodriguez in today’s matchup.
Batting from the opposite that Hayden Birdsong throws from, Joc Pederson will have the upper hand in today’s game.
Hitting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Tyler Fitzgerald will have an advantage in today’s matchup.
Tyler Fitzgerald’s launch angle in recent games (58° in the last week) is quite a bit better than his 19.6° seasonal mark.
Eugenio Suarez has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 11.2% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the last 14 days.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.
Hitting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Matt Chapman will have an advantage in today’s game.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Christian Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Negative Match Player Stats with Giants vs D-Backs
Chase Field has the 3rd-deepest centerfield fences in MLB.
The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense profiles as the best out of every team today.
Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Mark Canha today.
From last year to this one, Mark Canha’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 14.4% to 10.8%.
Mark Canha’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, decreasing from 10.8% on the season to 0% in the last 7 days.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s assessment, Eduardo Rodriguez’s overall pitching talent ranks in the 82nd percentile among all SPs in the majors currently.
The worst projected lineup of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the San Francisco Giants.
As a result of his reverse platoon split, Eduardo Rodriguez should be in good shape matching up with 7 bats in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in this outing.
Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
Hitting from the same side that Hayden Birdsong throws from, Eugenio Suarez will have a tough challenge today.
Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.
The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will bat from his weak side (0) today against Hayden Birdsong, Ketel Marte pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
Ketel Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, decreasing from 14.7% on the season to 7.7% over the past 7 days.
In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Ketel Marte has been very fortunate this year. His .386 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .358.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hayden Birdsong to throw 79 pitches in today’s outing (7th-most on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
The Arizona Diamondbacks (21.6 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy batting order on the slate.
Chase Field projects as the #24 ballpark in the league for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Hayden Birdsong will hold the platoon advantage over Christian Walker in today’s game.
Christian Walker’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 94.4-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 90.5-mph in the last two weeks.
Christian Walker’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, going from 17.9% on the season to 6.9% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Tyler Fitzgerald today.
Tyler Fitzgerald has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 7.7% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 14 days.
Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 87.5-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 73.6-mph in the past week.
Corbin Carroll’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last season to this one, going from 40.3% to 34.8%.
Over the past week, Corbin Carroll’s 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 34.8%.
With a .249 BABIP this year, Corbin Carroll is ranked in the 7th percentile.
Heliot Ramos has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Heliot Ramos today.
Heliot Ramos’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 96.3-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 87.5-mph over the last 7 days.
Despite posting a .340 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Heliot Ramos has experienced some positive variance given the .020 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .320.
Patrick Bailey is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
The #1 stadium in MLB for suppressing home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.
Patrick Bailey will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.
In the last two weeks, Patrick Bailey’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal average of 91.7 mph to 84.9 mph.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Grant McCray in the 23rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
Grant McCray is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today’s game.
The #1 ballpark in the majors for suppressing home runs to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.
Eduardo Rodriguez will have the handedness advantage over Grant McCray in today’s matchup.
Ketel Marte has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 36.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 28.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Casey Schmitt is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.
Casey Schmitt will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.
Casey Schmitt has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last week.
Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Grant McCray in today’s game.
Jerar Encarnacion has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jerar Encarnacion today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jerar Encarnacion’s true offensive talent to be a .291, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .021 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .312 wOBA.
Today, Matt Chapman is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.7% rate (97th percentile).
Matt Chapman will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.
Matt Chapman’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 94.4-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 92.4-mph over the past 14 days.
Matt Chapman’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (8.9°) is considerably lower than his 13.3° figure last season.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 7th percentile when assessing his home run ability.
Jake McCarthy is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.
Jake McCarthy has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.7-mph dropping to 82.5-mph in the past 14 days.
This year, Joc Pederson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 25% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.
Joc Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Over the last 7 days, Joc Pederson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.8% down to 0%.
Joc Pederson’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 92.3-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 85.4-mph over the past week.
Corbin Carroll’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 16.5% to 11.5%.
It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
Jerar Encarnacion has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs lately, angling balls between 23° and 34° just 5% of the time in the last 14 days.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 14th percentile when assessing his home run ability.
Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game.
The switch-hitting Geraldo Perdomo will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Hayden Birdsong, The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 12th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.
Compared to his seasonal figure of 9.1°, Jake McCarthy has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2.5°) in the last two weeks.
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