
CHC @ MIA






Positive Match Player Stats for Cubs vs Marlins Series Game 2
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.
Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (42.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Seiya Suzuki’s launch angle lately (24.2° over the last 14 days) is considerably better than his 16.6° seasonal figure.
Seiya Suzuki’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 16.3% to 19.9%.
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Ian Happ ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Ian Happ is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.
The #3 park in the majors for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park.
The switch-hitting Ian Happ will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Valente Bellozo.
Ian Happ has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 12.9% seasonal rate to 21.7% in the last 14 days.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.
The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park.
Dansby Swanson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Over the last week, Dansby Swanson’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.8% up to 16.7%.
Dansby Swanson’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (23.4° over the last 14 days) is significantly better than his 14.7° seasonal angle.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.
Derek Hill has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.
Batting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Derek Hill will have an advantage in today’s matchup.
Extreme flyball batters like Derek Hill usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.
Otto Lopez’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Otto Lopez will have the handedness advantage against Shota Imanaga in today’s game.
Otto Lopez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.
Bats such as Otto Lopez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Shota Imanaga who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Cristian Pache will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga today.
Extreme groundball hitters like Cristian Pache tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.
Cristian Pache will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.
Since the start of last season, Cristian Pache has an average exit velocity of 91 mph, which ranks among the best in baseball at the 87th percentile.
It is anticipated that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Todd Tichenor) behind the plate in this game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks LoanDepot Park as the 5th-best venue in MLB for walks.
The Miami Marlins have 9 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Shota Imanaga today.
Given that groundball hitters hold a sizeable edge over flyball pitchers, Shota Imanaga and his 40.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in this outing going up against 0 opposing GB bats.
Shota Imanaga will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s BABIP talent is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Valente Bellozo in today’s game.
Compared to his seasonal average of 16.8°, Pete Crow-Armstrong has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 27.5° figure in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Pete Crow-Armstrong has suffered from bad luck this year. His .261 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .310.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.
Cody Bellinger is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.
Cody Bellinger will hold the platoon advantage over Valente Bellozo in today’s matchup.
Cody Bellinger has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 93.2-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal mark of 90.9-mph.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.
Jake Burger is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.
Hitting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Jake Burger will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Jake Burger will hold that advantage in today’s game.
Nico Hoerner has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .254 rate is a good deal lower than his .283 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Sporting a 1.59 K/BB rate this year, Nico Hoerner has demonstrated good plate discipline, checking in at the 91st percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 84th percentile when assessing his home run talent.
Michael Busch is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.
Michael Busch will hold the platoon advantage over Valente Bellozo in today’s matchup.
Michael Busch has strong power (84th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (28.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Valente Bellozo doesn’t generate many whiffs (18th percentile K%) — great news for Busch.
Despite posting a .287 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Dansby Swanson has suffered from bad luck given the .040 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.
Connor Norby has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.
Connor Norby will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga in today’s game.
Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Connor Norby will hold that advantage in today’s game.
Ian Happ’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 14.1% to 21.4%.
Michael Busch has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 12.7% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the last week’s worth of games.
Jonah Bride is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.
Jonah Bride will have the handedness advantage over Shota Imanaga in today’s matchup.
Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jonah Bride will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Jonah Bride has shown impressive plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 84th percentile with a 1.96 K/BB rate.
Cristian Pache’s footspeed has improved this year. His 27.84 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.38 ft/sec now.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Shota Imanaga in the 89th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.
Tallying 92 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Shota Imanaga checks in at the 77th percentile.
The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (David Hensley, Cristian Pache, Derek Hill, Connor Norby).
Nico Hoerner’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, rising from 14.6% on the season to 17.6% over the past two weeks.
LoanDepot Park has the 5th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums.
Miguel Amaya has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 4.2% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the past week.
In the last two weeks, Miguel Amaya’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 94.7-mph lately.
Miguel Amaya’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, rising from 43% on the season to 56.5% in the past two weeks.
Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Last year, Isaac Paredes had an average launch angle of 18° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 21.5°.
Isaac Paredes has displayed good plate discipline this year, checking in at the 94th percentile with a 1.41 K/BB rate.
When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jake Burger ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Nick Fortes will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga in today’s game.
Nick Fortes will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.
Nick Fortes’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, rising from 10.8% on the season to 36.4% in the past 7 days.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.
Over the last 14 days, Cody Bellinger’s 22.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.2%.
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Isaac Paredes ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Connor Norby has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100.5-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal mark of 94.4-mph.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Nick Fortes (the Marlins’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be a good pitch framer.
Valente Bellozo is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #23 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 75th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
Derek Hill will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.
In the past 7 days, Derek Hill’s 31.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.9%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nick Fortes’s true offensive skill to be a .271, indicating that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .029 difference between that mark and his actual .242 wOBA.
Jake Burger has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 13.3% seasonal rate to 21.9% in the past 14 days.
Because flyball batters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Valente Bellozo (38.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected lineup.
Valente Bellozo will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his metrics in all categories.
Otto Lopez will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.
Otto Lopez has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 87.9-mph EV.
In the past 7 days, Miguel Amaya’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14%.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 20.4° angle is among the highest in the game this year (97th percentile).
Negative Match Player Stats with Cubs vs Marlins Series Game 2
The #8 field in the game for suppressing home runs to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park.
LoanDepot Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.
The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching.
Hitting from the same side that Valente Bellozo throws from, Seiya Suzuki encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.
Seiya Suzuki will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.
Among all parks, LoanDepot Park’s RF dimensions are the 4th-deepest.
The Miami Marlins outfield defense profiles as the 5th-strongest among every team on the slate today.
Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ian Happ in today’s matchup.
Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.
Valente Bellozo will hold the platoon advantage over Dansby Swanson today.
Derek Hill has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 4th-deepest RF fences today.
Derek Hill has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.5-mph dropping to 84.5-mph in the last two weeks.
In terms of his home runs, Derek Hill has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His 14.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 9.5.
Otto Lopez is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.
In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Otto Lopez ranks in just the 3rd percentile with a 4.8° launch angle, which is one of the most groundball-inducing angles in the league.
Otto Lopez has recorded a .260 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 6th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cristian Pache in the 16th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.
Cristian Pache is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s estimation, Shota Imanaga’s overall pitching skill grades out in the 84th percentile out of all starting pitchers in the majors right now.
The worst projected lineup of the day in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Miami Marlins.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 12% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.
Despite posting a .303 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Derek Hill has been very fortunate given the .023 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .280.
In today’s game, Cody Bellinger is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35% rate (87th percentile).
Extreme flyball hitters like Cody Bellinger generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Valente Bellozo.
In today’s matchup, Jake Burger is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.3% rate (92nd percentile).
When it comes to his home runs, Jake Burger has been lucky this year. His 34.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.5.
When it comes to plate discipline, Jake Burger’s skill is quite poor, putting up a 4.77 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 10th percentile.
As it relates to his home run skill, Nico Hoerner ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Nico Hoerner is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.
Valente Bellozo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nico Hoerner in today’s matchup.
Michael Busch has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 14% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.
Connor Norby pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.
Over the past 7 days, Connor Norby’s swing has not been well optimized for base hits, hitting a mere 27.3% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.
LoanDepot Park projects as the #23 field in the league for left-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
As it relates to his home run ability, Jonah Bride ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Jonah Bride pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.
Over the past 7 days, Jonah Bride’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal mark of 91.4 mph to 69.4 mph.
Cristian Pache has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Shota Imanaga’s 91.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 17th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Amaya in the 24th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.
Miguel Amaya is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this game.
When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Miguel Amaya has been pulled from the game early 20% of the time.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 1st percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.
Batting from the same side that Valente Bellozo throws from, Isaac Paredes meets a tough challenge today.
Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 1st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.
Nick Fortes is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game.
Nick Fortes’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 88.1-mph figure last season has fallen to 84.4-mph.
Nico Hoerner has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 4th-deepest RF fences today.
With a .270 wOBA over the past week, Connor Norby has been struggling at the plate.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Valente Bellozo in the 23rd percentile when it comes to his overall pitching skills.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Valente Bellozo to throw 83 pitches in today’s game (10th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
It may be best to expect better results for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill in the 22nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Nick Fortes ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Valente Bellozo in the 23rd percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.
Valente Bellozo’s 89.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 4th percentile among all starting pitchers.
Out of all starters, Valente Bellozo’s fastball spin rate of 2104 rpm is in the 16th percentile this year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 10th percentile when estimating his home run talent.
Over the last 7 days, Jonah Bride’s 5.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.9%.
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