
NYM @ MIL






Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Friday, September 27th
27/09/24 20:10:00 PM EST First Pitch
Positive Match Player Stats for Mets vs Brewers Matchup Today
When it comes to his home run talent, Gary Sanchez ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Gary Sanchez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.
American Family Field profiles as the #8 ballpark in the majors for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.
Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all parks, which often leads to more offense.
When assessing his home run ability, Mark Vientos ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, William Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
William Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.
Tyrone Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
Tyrone Taylor has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph to 92.4-mph in the last 14 days.
When assessing his BABIP skill, Starling Marte is projected as the 19th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Starling Marte is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.
Starling Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 42.4% to 48.8%.
Starling Marte has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .267 mark is considerably lower than his .292 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.
Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.
American Family Field profiles as the #8 park in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
American Family Field has the 6th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors.
As it relates to his home run skill, Rhys Hoskins ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Batting from the opposite that Sean Manaea throws from, Rhys Hoskins will have the upper hand in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run skill.
Willy Adames is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Jose Iglesias has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.
Jose Iglesias’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, rising from 50.7% on the season to 66.7% over the past 7 days.
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jackson Chourio ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.
When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Frankie Montas in the 75th percentile among all starting pitchers in baseball.
The #2 ballpark in baseball for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.
Frankie Montas will have the handedness advantage against 7 opposing batters in this matchup.
Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Frankie Montas will hold that advantage today.
Among all starting pitchers, Frankie Montas’s fastball velocity of 95 mph ranks in the 83rd percentile this year.
When it comes to his home run ability, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Francisco Alvarez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph to 96.4-mph in the last 7 days.
Pete Alonso projects as the 12th-best home run batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesse Winker in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.
Jesse Winker is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.
Jesse Winker will hold the platoon advantage over Frankie Montas today.
Tyrone Taylor’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 38.1% to 50.4%.
Tyrone Taylor’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 50.4% on the season to 65.2% in the last two weeks.
As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Tyrone Taylor has had bad variance on his side this year. His .308 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .324.
Brice Turang hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Brice Turang will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Ortiz in the 75th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.
Batting from the opposite that Sean Manaea throws from, Joey Ortiz will have an advantage in today’s game.
Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Joey Ortiz will hold that advantage today.
In terms of his batting average, Joey Ortiz has suffered from bad luck this year. His .237 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .251.
Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Rhys Hoskins will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Rhys Hoskins has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 13.1% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the past two weeks.
As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Starling Marte has had some very poor luck this year. His .311 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .338.
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Willy Adames ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Willy Adames will have the handedness advantage against Sean Manaea in today’s game.
Francisco Alvarez’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 31.1% to 38%.
Blake Perkins has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.
As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Blake Perkins will get to bat from his strong side against Sean Manaea today.
The Milwaukee Brewers have 7 batters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Manaea in this game.
Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Sean Manaea in today’s matchup.
Sean Manaea’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this year (91.7 mph) below where it was last year (92.8 mph).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Sean Manaea in the 87th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.
Tallying 95.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Sean Manaea falls in the 92nd percentile.
Sean Manaea has posted a 25.6% K% this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Vientos in the 75th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.
Mark Vientos has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 14.4% seasonal rate to 25% in the last week.
Mark Vientos has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.3-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 91-mph figure.
Sal Frelick hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Sal Frelick will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Francisco Alvarez has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 7% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the past 7 days.
Gary Sanchez will hold the platoon advantage against Sean Manaea in today’s matchup.
With a .365 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jose Iglesias finds himself in the 94th percentile.
Gary Sanchez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Gary Sanchez will hold that advantage today.
Batting from the opposite that Frankie Montas throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have an edge today.
When it comes to his batting average, Brice Turang has had some very poor luck this year. His .251 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .288.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.
Jose Iglesias ranks in the 99th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (50.7% rate this year).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 84th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.
Sal Frelick has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 86-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 83.2-mph mark.
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Pete Alonso ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Pete Alonso has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 13.4% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past 14 days.
Blake Perkins will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
In the last two weeks, Blake Perkins’s 23.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.7%.
William Contreras will hold the platoon advantage over Sean Manaea today.
William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Jackson Chourio will have the handedness advantage over Sean Manaea in today’s game.
Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
Negative Match Player Stats with Mets vs Brewers
Gary Sanchez has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 15.4% rate last season has fallen off to 10.4% this year.
Over the past two weeks, Gary Sanchez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.4% down to 0%.
Gary Sanchez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off in recent games, decreasing from 14% on the season to 0% in the last week.
Mark Vientos is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.
Frankie Montas will hold the platoon advantage over Mark Vientos in today’s game.
Among all the teams today, the best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.
Mark Vientos will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.
Over the past week, Mark Vientos’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.2%.
William Contreras’s launch angle of late (0.7° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is considerably worse than his 6° seasonal mark.
William Contreras has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .359 figure is significantly inflated relative to his .341 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Tyrone Taylor is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
Frankie Montas will have the handedness advantage over Tyrone Taylor in today’s game.
Tyrone Taylor will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.
Tyrone Taylor has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7.6% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past 7 days.
With a 4 K/BB rate this year, Tyrone Taylor has shown poor plate discipline, ranking in the 15th percentile.
The #8 park in MLB for suppressing batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.
Hitting from the same side that Frankie Montas throws from, Starling Marte will be in a tough position today.
In today’s matchup, Starling Marte is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.8% rate (88th percentile).
Starling Marte will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
Brandon Nimmo will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.
In terms of his home runs, Brandon Nimmo has experienced some positive variance this year. His 20.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.9.
Rhys Hoskins is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
Rhys Hoskins has put up a .245 BABIP this year, placing in the 5th percentile.
Willy Adames’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, falling from 19.8% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days.
Despite posting a .342 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Willy Adames has been lucky given the .012 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.
When it comes to his home run skill, Jose Iglesias ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Frankie Montas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Iglesias in today’s matchup.
Jose Iglesias has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.
Jose Iglesias will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.
Jackson Chourio has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week.
Over the last week, Jackson Chourio’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.8%.
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.6) may lead us to conclude that Jackson Chourio has had some very good luck this year with his 22.5 actual HR/600.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Frankie Montas to throw 5.0 IP in today’s game (11th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Francisco Alvarez is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game.
Batting from the same side that Frankie Montas throws from, Francisco Alvarez will have a disadvantage today.
Francisco Alvarez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.
Francisco Alvarez’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, going from 38% on the season to 22.7% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
Frankie Montas will have the handedness advantage over Pete Alonso today.
Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Pete Alonso today.
Brandon Nimmo has compiled a .271 BABIP this year, ranking in the 19th percentile.
This year, Jesse Winker has been pulled from the game early in 15% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects American Family Field as the 8th-worst field in baseball for lefty batting average.
Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jesse Winker in today’s matchup.
Jesse Winker’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, decreasing from 14.7% to 9.9%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 4th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.
Brice Turang is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
Batting from the same side that Sean Manaea throws from, Brice Turang will not have the upper hand in today’s game.
Brice Turang’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 87-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 73.6-mph in the last 7 days.
Brice Turang’s launch angle of late (0.5° in the last two weeks’ worth of games) is a significant dropoff from his 5.8° seasonal mark.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jesse Winker’s true offensive skill to be a .323, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .015 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .338 wOBA.
Joey Ortiz is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.
Joey Ortiz has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.
In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Joey Ortiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 91.1 mph to 86.9 mph.
Joey Ortiz’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (0.5° over the last two weeks) is considerably worse than his 7.3° seasonal mark.
Sporting a 11.800 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Joey Ortiz is ranked in the 21st percentile for power.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rhys Hoskins in the 8th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.
Starling Marte has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past 14 days.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Starling Marte in the 19th percentile when estimating his home run talent.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 25th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.
When estimating his home run skill, Blake Perkins ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
In today’s game, Blake Perkins is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.8% rate (75th percentile).
Blake Perkins has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 92.5-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
Blake Perkins has been cold of late, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (6.2) may lead us to conclude that Blake Perkins has had some very good luck this year with his 8.5 actual HR/600.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s assessment, Sean Manaea’s overall pitching ability is in the 76th percentile out of all SPs in the majors right now.
It may be smart to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Francisco Alvarez (the Mets’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as a good pitch framer.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 5th-worst ballpark in the league for batting average.
Sean Manaea has utilized his sinker 40.5% more often this year (41.2%) than he did last season (0.7%).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 4th percentile when assessing his home run skill.
Sal Frelick is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Sean Manaea will have the handedness advantage over Sal Frelick in today’s matchup.
From last season to this one, Sal Frelick’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 85.5 mph to 83.4 mph.
Sal Frelick’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (2.2° in the last two weeks) is considerably lower than his 5.9° seasonal figure.
Francisco Alvarez’s launch angle this year (6.7°) is a significant dropoff from his 12.3° angle last year.
As it relates to his home runs, Francisco Alvarez has experienced some positive variance this year. His 20.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.3.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gary Sanchez in the 2nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.
In terms of his batting average, Gary Sanchez has been lucky this year. His .213 mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .197.
Jose Iglesias has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.6-mph dropping to 78-mph in the past week.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mark Vientos’s true offensive skill to be a .315, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .044 difference between that mark and his actual .359 wOBA.
Utilizing Statcast metrics, Blake Perkins ranks in the 17th percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .282.
Rhys Hoskins’s launch angle of late (28° over the last 7 days) is a significant increase over his 20.8° seasonal figure.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jackson Chourio’s true offensive skill to be a .324, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .014 deviation between that figure and his actual .338 wOBA.
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