
HOU @ BAL





Positive Match Player Stats for Astros vs Orioles Series Game 3
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.
The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Alex Bregman hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Over the last 14 days, Alex Bregman has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 6.2% to 23.1%.
In the past week’s worth of games, Shay Whitcomb has displayed impressive power, recording a a 20% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power).
Shay Whitcomb has shown some good exit velocity stats recently, averaging 103.8-mph on his flyballs in the past week.
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
The switch-hitting Adley Rutschman will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Framber Valdez.
Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Adley Rutschman will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Shay Whitcomb has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits of late, hitting balls between -4° and 26° 60% of the time over the past 7 days.
Jose Altuve’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 stadium in the game for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
In the past 7 days, Jose Altuve’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.5-mph over the course of the season to 96.9-mph of late.
As it relates to his batting average skill, Yainer Diaz is projected as the 16th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.
Yainer Diaz has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Yainer Diaz has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 8.4% seasonal rate to 15.8% over the past 14 days.
Jose Altuve has compiled a .347 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 84th percentile.
Anthony Santander is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.
Extreme flyball bats like Anthony Santander are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
Anthony Santander will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.
There has been a significant improvement in Anthony Santander’s launch angle from last year’s 20° to 23.5° this season.
As it relates to his BABIP talent, Austin Slater is projected as the 8th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Austin Slater is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
Austin Slater will hold the platoon advantage over Framber Valdez today.
Austin Slater has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
Ryan Mountcastle is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game.
Ryan Mountcastle will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez today.
Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 17th-best batter in the game.
Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.
Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Gunnar Henderson will hold that advantage in today’s game.
By putting up a .283 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Gunnar Henderson finds himself in the 92nd percentile.
Ramon Urias will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today’s game.
Ramon Urias has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s shallowest RF fences today.
Ramon Urias will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.
In the past week’s worth of games, Ramon Urias’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.6% up to 28.6%.
Mauricio Dubon has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Mauricio Dubon has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph to 92.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
There has been a significant improvement in Mauricio Dubon’s launch angle from last season’s 9.7° to 14.7° this season.
Mauricio Dubon’s launch angle recently (22.9° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 14.7° seasonal angle.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best batter in baseball.
Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.
Batting from the opposite that Albert Suarez throws from, Yordan Alvarez will have an advantage in today’s matchup.
Yordan Alvarez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jose Altuve ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Framber Valdez projects as the 13th-best pitcher in MLB right now, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Throwing 94.7 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Framber Valdez places him the 90th percentile.
It is likely that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Roberto Ortiz) in charge of the strike zone in this game.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Victor Caratini (the Astros’s expected catcher in today’s game) projects as a good pitch framer.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #29 field in the game for walks, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Victor Caratini is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
Victor Caratini hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
Victor Caratini’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (8.1°) is considerably better than his 4.7° angle last season.
Utilizing Statcast metrics, Victor Caratini is in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .285.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eloy Jimenez in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.
Eloy Jimenez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today’s game.
Eloy Jimenez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Eloy Jimenez will hold that advantage in today’s game.
Projected catcher Adley Rutschman projects as a good pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher metrics in all categories, and Albert Suarez will hold that advantage in today’s game.
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Austin Slater ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Victor Caratini has notched a .334 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 82nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.
Jackson Holliday will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.320) provides evidence that Jackson Holliday has had bad variance on his side this year with his .248 actual wOBA.
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Yainer Diaz ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 82nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Eloy Jimenez ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 75th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.
Jake Meyers has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 92.1-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.2-mph mark.
Jake Meyers’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, rising from 19.5% on the season to 40% over the past week.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best ballpark in the majors for left-handed base hits.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average skill.
Jake Meyers’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 40% to 47.4%.
Gunnar Henderson’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, rising from 14% on the season to 28.6% in the past 7 days.
Jake Meyers has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 89.2-mph average to last season’s 86-mph mark.
Jake Meyers has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .299 rate is quite a bit lower than his .341 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
When assessing his BABIP skill, Colton Cowser is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Colton Cowser will hold that advantage today.
In notching a .344 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Colton Cowser is ranked in the 83rd percentile for offensive skills.
Based on Statcast data, Colton Cowser ranks in the 83rd percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 26.300.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Framber Valdez in the 80th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.
Due to his large reverse platoon split, Framber Valdez will be at an advantage facing 6 hitters in the projected batting order who hit from the other side in this game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.
Ranking in the 22nd percentile, Albert Suarez has put up a 2.24 K/BB rate this year.
When assessing his home run ability, Anthony Santander ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Negative Match Player Stats with Astros vs Orioles Series Game 3
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 3rd-worst venue in baseball for righty home runs.
Among all major league stadiums, the 9th-tallest average fence height are at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Albert Suarez will have the handedness advantage against Alex Bregman in today’s game.
The Baltimore Orioles infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of all the teams in action today.
Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Alex Bregman today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shay Whitcomb in the 19th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.
Shay Whitcomb is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the deepest left field fences in the majors.
Adley Rutschman’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 90-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 84.3-mph in the past 14 days.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shay Whitcomb in the 18th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.
Albert Suarez will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Altuve in today’s game.
In today’s game, Jose Altuve is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.6% rate (99th percentile).
Jose Altuve will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.
Jose Altuve’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 92.9-mph figure last season has fallen to 90.5-mph.
Batting from the same side that Albert Suarez throws from, Yainer Diaz encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.
Yainer Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Santander in the 2nd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.
In today’s game, Anthony Santander is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.3% rate (98th percentile).
Anthony Santander’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 89.6-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 81.8-mph in the past week.
Extreme groundball batters like Austin Slater tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
Austin Slater has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 11.9% rate last season has decreased to 4.6% this year.
Austin Slater’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 91.1-mph mark last season has dropped off to 87.9-mph.
Ryan Mountcastle’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 93.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 87.5-mph over the past week.
Over the past 7 days, Ryan Mountcastle’s 5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.9%.
With a 3.87 K/BB rate this year, Ryan Mountcastle has demonstrated bad plate discipline, checking in at the 19th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 3rd-worst ballpark in baseball for LHB home runs.
Framber Valdez will have the handedness advantage over Gunnar Henderson today.
In today’s matchup, Gunnar Henderson is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.3% rate (79th percentile).
In the past week, Gunnar Henderson’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.6% up to 23.1%.
Ramon Urias is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.
Extreme flyball batters like Ramon Urias tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
Ramon Urias’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, going from 43.5% to 35.4%.
As it relates to his home run ability, Mauricio Dubon ranks in the 15th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Mauricio Dubon is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this matchup.
Hitting from the same side that Albert Suarez throws from, Mauricio Dubon will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Yordan Alvarez in today’s game.
In the last week’s worth of games, Yordan Alvarez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14% down to 5.9%.
The Baltimore Orioles projected offense projects as the 4th-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.
Framber Valdez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.
Framber Valdez’s 93.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.3-mph decline from last season’s 94.7-mph figure.
The 9.5% Barrel% of the Baltimore Orioles ranks them as the #3 offense in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.
Victor Caratini is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#3-best of all teams on the slate).
Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Victor Caratini in today’s game.
Eloy Jimenez is penciled in 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
Extreme groundball hitters like Eloy Jimenez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
Eloy Jimenez’s launch angle this year (2.7°) is a considerable dropoff from his 5.8° mark last season.
Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Houston Astros with a 20.1% underlying K%.
Albert Suarez has a reverse platoon split and is stuck squaring off against 6 same-handed bats in this outing.
Albert Suarez has posted an 18.6% Strikeout% this year, grading out in the 21st percentile.
Victor Caratini’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 91.7-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 83.4-mph in the past two weeks.
Victor Caratini’s launch angle of late (0.7° in the last 14 days) is significantly worse than his 8.6° seasonal angle.
Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Framber Valdez will have the handedness advantage over Jackson Holliday in today’s game.
Jackson Holliday has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Yainer Diaz’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, falling from 21.6% to 11.8%.
Mauricio Dubon will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.
When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Mauricio Dubon has had some very good luck this year. His .277 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .261.
Albert Suarez has tallied 14.9 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile.
The Houston Astros projected batting order projects as the 5th-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
Considering the 1.57 discrepancy between Albert Suarez’s 3.18 ERA and his 4.75 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors this year and ought to perform worse in the future.
Eloy Jimenez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, going from 9.1% on the season to 3.8% over the past 14 days.
Using Statcast metrics, Eloy Jimenez ranks in the 17th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .282.
Jake Meyers is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Hitting from the same side that Albert Suarez throws from, Jake Meyers encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.
Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jake Meyers in today’s game.
Gunnar Henderson has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.9-mph dropping to 82.2-mph over the past week.
Gunnar Henderson’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off in recent games, going from 44.6% on the season to 21.4% in the past 7 days.
Colton Cowser is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.
Hitting from the same side that Framber Valdez throws from, Colton Cowser faces a tough challenge in today’s game.
Colton Cowser has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s deepest LF fences today.
Over the past two weeks, Anthony Santander’s 18.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 37.7%.
When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Anthony Santander has had positive variance on his side this year. His .346 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .330.
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.3) suggests that Alex Bregman has had some very good luck this year with his 23.2 actual HR/600.
In the last 7 days, Colton Cowser’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.8% down to 8.3%.
In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Colton Cowser’s 3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.9%.
In the last week’s worth of games, Yordan Alvarez’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal figure of 93.6 mph to 88 mph.
Extreme groundball bats like Jackson Holliday tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
Jackson Holliday has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 12.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.286) implies that Yordan Alvarez has been lucky this year with his .306 actual batting average.
Albert Suarez will hold the platoon advantage against Shay Whitcomb today.
Compared to his seasonal angle of 23.5°, Anthony Santander has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.8°) in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
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