Originally published on Friday, Aug. 4, at 1:26 p.m. Eastern.
Updated on Wednesday, Aug. 20, at 7:33 a.m. Eastern.
My rankings are based on who I would make favored over whom in Week 1.
There’s little separation between my #1 and #9. Truth be told, it took me like two weeks to decide who to go with as my Preseason Uno. I really feel like all of these top teams have warts. Even more concerning, only three teams – Penn St., LSU and Clemson – in my #1 through #9 have veteran/proven QBs that have played at a high level (although we’ll concede that Texas feels just fine about its QB situation, and my #10 wouldn’t trade its starting QB for any other).
In the end, though, I went with Georgia based on overall talent, speed, experience and coaching.
1-Georgia: Kirby Smart’s 2025 team isn’t as talented as many of his recent teams, but it still has one of the nation’s top rosters. Mike Bobo is a run-first offensive coordinator, and he’s got a good one to feed in sophomore running back Nate Frazier. WR Noah Thomas was a huge get in the portal. TE Oscar Delp, WR Dillon Bell, WR Zachariah Branch and WR London Humphreys are solid weapons for QB Gunner Stockton. Smart’s 2025 recruiting class was ranked #2 nationally, per the 247Sports Composite, and it features five incoming five-star freshmen.
2-Texas: The Longhorns might have the nation’s best defense with seven starters returning from a unit that gave up an average of only 15.3 points per game. Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have Texas #3 at QB, #3 at RB, #5 at WR, #26 on the offensive line, #9 on the d-line, #1 at LB, #6 in the secondary and #6 on special teams. Steele has LB Anthony Hill, DE Colin Simmons and safety Michael Taaffe as preseason first-team All-Americans. After two years of sitting behind Quinn Ewers, Arch Manning will take over under center. In 12 career games, including a pair of starts in 2024, Manning has completed 61-of-90 passes (67.8%) for 939 yards with a 9/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 115 rushing yards and four TDs on 28 career attempts for a 4.1 yards-per-carry average. WR Ryan Wingo is poised for a breakout campaign.
3-Oregon: Since leaving Smart’s staff at UGA to become Oregon’s head coach, Dan Lanning has compiled a 35-6 straight-up record and a 26-15 against-the-spread mark. Lanning’s 2025 recruiting class is ranked third nationally and includes the #5 transfer-specific group. There are 11 incoming transfers, including one five-star and seven four-star imports. An offseason injury to WR Evan Stewart hurts. He’s most likely out for the season after hauling in 48 catches for 613 yards and five TDs in 2024. The Ducks could’ve gone after a veteran QB in the portal but elected to roll with Dante Moore instead. Moore was a five-star recruit to UCLA in the 2023 class. As a true freshman for the Bruins two years ago, he played in nine games and completed 114-of-213 throws (53.5%) for 1,610 yards with an 11/9 TD-INT ratio. Moore only saw mop-up duty last year behind Dillon Gabriel, connecting on 7-of-8 passes for 49 yards.
4-Penn St.: James Franklin probably has his best team as he goes into his 12th season in State College. He has a senior QB in Drew Allar, who has 29 career starts in the last two years. Allar completed 66.5 percent of his passes for 3,327 yards with a 24/8 TD-INT ratio in 2024. He had 302 rushing yards and six TDs as well, but his costly interception at crunch time set up Notre Dame’s game-winning field goal in a 27-24 loss in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff. Steele’s National Unit Rankings have the Nittany Lions #4 at QB, #1 at RB, #11 at WR, #1 on the o-line, #3 on the d-line, #6 at LB, #4 in the secondary and #24 on special teams. RB Nicolas Singleton had 1,805 all-purpose yards, 17 TDs (12 rushing, five receiving) and a 6.4 YPC average last year, and RB Kaytron Allen had 1,108 rushing yards and eight TDs. Six of PSU’s top nine tacklers return from a unit that allowed an average of 16.5 points per game.
5-Ohio St.: Ryan Day’s team bounced back from regular-season losses at Oregon (32-31) and vs. Michigan (13-10) to win four straight games in the CFP by double-digit margins, including a 37-23 win over Notre Dame to win the national championship. Unlike last year when it brought in veteran QB Will Howard, the Buckeyes passed on more proven QBs from the portal and are going with redshirt freshman Julian Sayin under center. He was a five-star prospect out of high school who threw only 12 passes in mop-up duty as a true freshman. Sayin will be looking to feed WR Jeremiah Smith early and often. As a true freshman, Smith had 76 receptions for 1,315 yards and 15 TDs.
6-LSU: Brian Kelly’s team has the nation’s #1 transfer-specific class. The Tigers brought in 18 transfers, including 12 four-star players. Garrett Nussmeier is back after throwing for 4,052 yards with a 29/12 TD-INT ratio in his first season as a starting QB. Sophomore RB Caden Durham is poised for a monster year. LB Whit Weeks is a preseason first-team All-American in most publications, and LB Harold Perkins is a future first-round pick. In 31 career games, Perkins has recorded 164 tackles, 28 tackles for loss, 13 sacks, seven forced fumbles, seven passes broken up, two interceptions and one fumble recovery. WR Barion Brown, a transfer from Kentucky, might be the nation’s best return man on special teams. He has five career TDs on special teams.
7-Clemson: The Tigers have nine starters back on defense and eight on offense from a team that won the ACC. They have one of the nation’s top QBs in Cade Klubnik, who had a 36/6 TD-INT ratio in 2024. Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have Clemson #1 at QB, #31 at RB, #2 at WR, #2 on the o-line, #2 on the d-line, #8 at LB, #3 in the secondary and #55 on special teams. Dabo Swinney even went into the portal (while holding his nose) and grabbed a pair of four-star transfers.
8-Notre Dame: I think Marcus Freeman has a top-five roster nationally, but I have no idea what he’s going to get out of the QB position. Redshirt freshman CJ Carr was named the starter ahead of Kenny Minchey on Aug. 19. The 247Sports Composite ranked Carr as the nation’s #68 overall prospect in the 2024 class, the #6 QB and the #1 player out of the state of Michigan. RB Jeremiyah Love is back after rushing for 1,125 yards and 17 TDs while averaging 6.9 YPC. Jadarian Price also returns after producing 746 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 6.2 YPC average in 2024. Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have Notre Dame #64 at QB, #2 at RB, #14 at WR, #3 on the o-line, #4 on the d-line, #3 at LB, #1 in the secondary and #11 on special teams.
9-Alabama: Much like Notre Dame, Kalen Deboer’s Year 2 roster has top-five talent, but I have to see QB Ty Simpson in action against live bullets before I form much of an opinion on the Crimson Tide. The late-season losses at Oklahoma and vs. Michigan at the ReliaQuest Bowl were concerning. WRs Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard are excellent weapons for Simpson. Will OC Ryan Grubb’s presence give the offense a big boost? Starting RB Jam Miller is most likely going to miss at least the first three games. You can read my Week 1 preview of Alabama at FSU here.
10-Florida: As long as QB DJ Lagway is on the field, Florida will have a chance to win at any venue on Saturdays this fall. The Gators play UGA in Jacksonville and have road games in Baton Rouge, Miami, College Station, Lexington and Oxford. Texas and Tennessee come to The Swamp, too. If a betting market for National Freshman of the Year honors becomes available at some point this month, drop a few greenbacks on Florida WR Dallas Wilson to win the award. Lagway also has WR Eugene ‘Tre’ Wilson back after he missed most of last season injured. I had a lot more to say about UF in this in-depth preview. UPDATE: Dallas Wilson suffered a lower-body injury a couple of weeks ago, but all indications are that he’ll be back on the field soon. On3 has named him to its Preseason True Freshman All-American Team.
11-Texas A&M: The Aggies have one of the country’s top offensive lines and deepest set of RBs led by Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels, who combined for 18 rushing TDs last year. The defense returns its top-six tacklers and seven starters. A&M’s success in Year 2 under Mike Elko will depend on how much QB Marcel Reed has improved. He’s a dual-threat QB who lost his top-five pass catchers. NC St. transfer WR KC Concepcion was a good get.
12-Ole Miss: The Rebels’ ‘A Game’ might’ve beaten anybody else’s in 2024, but they showed up with their ‘C Game’ in one-possession losses vs. Kentucky, at LSU and at Florida. Ole Miss lost a lot of dudes, especially in the trenches, but it says here that QB Austin Simmons is going to be outstanding. He has WR Cayden Lee (57 catches for 874 receiving yards last year) back to team with transfer wideouts Harrison Wallace (Penn St.) and De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma St.).
13-Michigan: Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have the Wolverines #61 at QB, #11 at RB, #53 at WR, #22 on the o-line, #5 on the d-line, #2 at LB, #9 in the secondary and #5 on special teams. With Mikey Keene and Bryce Underwood as the options at QB, I think the QBs should be ranked around 40th. Keene has 34 career starts (in four seasons, two apiece at UCF and Fresno St.), a 67.8 completion percentage, 8,245 passing yards and a 65/28 TD-INT ratio. Michigan won three games in a row to end the season, including wins at Ohio St. as a 19.5-point road underdog and an upset of Alabama as a 16.5-point ‘dog. Sherrone Moore’s squad closed the year on a 4-0 ATS run, beating the closing numbers by 88 combined points.
14-Miami: Like Ole Miss, Miami allowed an outstanding opportunity to make the CFP get away last season by losing two of its last three regular-season games as a 9.5 and 11-point favorite at Ga. Tech and Syracuse, respectively. Carson Beck replaces Cam Ward at QB, but the top-six pass catchers are gone. Mario Cristobal brought in the nation’s #3 transfer-specific class that includes eight four-star players (of 19 transfers).
15-Arizona St.: According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, ASU returns 79 percent of its production from a team that won the Big 12 and lost to Texas in double overtime of the CFP quarterfinals. QB Sam Leavitt and WR Jordyn Tyson are All-American candidates. Kenny Dillingham is trying to replace star RB Cam Skattebo with Army transfer RB Kanye Udoh, who was a second-team All-AAC selection in 2024 when he had 1,117 rushing yards, 10 TDs and a 6.2 YPC average.
16-Illinois: Bret Bielema’s team has nine starters and the top-five tacklers back from a stop unit that allowed an average of 21.7 PPG. The entire offensive line returns along with QB Luke Altmyer, who had a 22/6 TD-INT ratio and four rushing TDs. The Fighting Illini went 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS last season, including four wins over ranked opponents. They finished 2024 on a four-game winning streak both SU and ATS. I took Illinois to go ‘over’ 7.5 wins at a -135 price a couple of months ago, but most spots now have that number at 8.5 (for plus money) or have jacked the juice up too high on 7.5.
17-Indiana: IU had never won 10 games in a season in program history, but Curt Cignetti won the first 11 games of his tenure. The first 10 wins came by margins of 14 points or more. The Hoosiers finished the year +2,211 in net yards. They brought in Cal transfer QB Fernando Mendoza to replace Kurtis Rourke. Steele’s magazine has LB Aiden Fisher, WR Elijah Sarratt and DE Mikail Kamara as preseason second-team All-Americans, and CB D’Angelo Ponds is a preseason third-team All-American.
18-Oklahoma: The schedule is a mother with nine of 12 games against foes that are in the Top 24 of my rankings. Washington St. transfer John Mateer should be a major upgrade at QB, and RB Jaydn Ott (Cal transfer) was a huge get in the late portal window. The defense has a lot of NFL talent. The Sooners played a good chunk of last year without their five best WRs due to injuries. Nevertheless, it feels like Brent Venable better go 8-4 to feel comfortable about his job security.
19-Tennessee: The Vols have eight starters and five of its top-six tacklers back from a unit that gave up only 16.1 PPG. Will starting QB Joey Aguilar be able to produce enough points against the toughest opponents on the schedule? The slate is manageable, with only three for-sure games as underdogs vs. UGA, at Alabama and at Florida.
20-South Carolina: Five starters from last season’s defense were selected in the first four rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft. DE Dylan Stewart and QB LaNorris Sellers are back, though, and they’re two of the nation’s best players. The Gamecocks continue to await word on Utah St. transfer RB Rashul Faison’s eligibility. If you have a teaser or money-line parlay going in Week 1, I think Shane Beamer’s team should be in it.
21-SMU: Rhett Lashlee has produced 11-3 SU records and 8-6 ATS marks in back-to-back seasons, going to the ACC Championship Game in the program’s debut year in the league. Before losing 38-10 at Penn St. in the CFP, the Mustangs’ only losses were to Clemson (34-31 on a walk-off field goal) and BYU (18-15) by six combined points. They had eight wins by double-digit margins. QB Kevin Jennings is back and will operate behind an o-line with 117 career starts.
22-Auburn: The heat is on Hugh Freeze going into Year 3. If Oklahoma transfer QB Jackson Arnold doesn’t succeed, it won’t be due to a lack of talent at WR. With Ga. Tech transfer Eric Singleton and Wake Forest transfer Horatio Fields joining Cam Coleman and Malcolm Simmons, Auburn might have the nation’s premier set of WRs.
23-Baylor: QB Sawyer Robertson is one of my two longshot bets to win the Heisman. We’ll find out about the Bears quickly, as three of their first four games are vs. Auburn, at SMU and vs. Arizona St. Dave Aranda has a star in junior LB Keaton Thomas, who was a first-team All-Big 12 selection in 2024 when he recorded 114 tackles, seven TFL’s, three QB Hurries, 2.5 sacks and a 35-yard interception return for a TD.
24-Missouri: Eli Drinkwitz brought in the nation’s #14 overall recruiting class and the #7 transfer-specific group. WR Kevin Coleman (Mississippi St.) and RB Ahmad Hardy (ULM) were outstanding additions to the offense. The Tigers have nine starters back from a defense that gave up only 20.1 PPG. They’ll be better than #24 if Penn St. transfer QB Beau Pribula turns out to be a better-than-decent SEC QB.
25-Ga. Tech: Brent Key owns a 15-6 ATS record with 11 outright wins in 21 games as an underdog during his tenure, and six of those 11 victories have been from double-digit ‘dog roles. (I like the Yellow Jackets +13.5 (FanDuel) in their regular-season finale vs. UGA.) QB Haynes King is my other longshot wager (90/1) to win the Heisman after he posted a 14/2 TD-INT ratio with 11 rushing TDs in 2024. The loss of Singleton to Auburn was softened by the addition of WR Eric Rivers, who was a first-team All-Conference USA selection after producing 1,172 receiving yards at FIU last season.
26-Louisville: Steele’s National Unit Rankings have U of L #13 at QB, #4 at RB, #12 at WR, #17 on the o-line, #40 on the d-line, #18 at LB and #71 in the secondary. As true freshmen last year, RBs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson combined for 1,770 rushing yards and 18 TDs. QB Miller Moss replaces Tyler Shough at QB.
27-Iowa St.: The Cyclones are off their best season in program history, going 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS. QB Rocco Becht returns after throwing for 3,505 yards with a 25/9 TD-INT ratio. He also had 318 rushing yards and eight TDs, but he lost his star WRs Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, who were both day-two draft picks by the Houston Texans. Matt Campbell is hoping that transfer WRs Chase Sowell (East Carolina) and Xavier Townsend (UCF) can be adequate replacements. I bet the Cyclones +3.5 vs. Kansas St. earlier this month. Here’s my preview of Iowa St. vs. K-St.
28-Vanderbilt: I’m all about Vandy’s season win total to go ‘over’ and explained why in this preview. TE Eli Stowers is a preseason first-team All-American in most publications, and he’s #15 on Bruce Feldman’s annual ‘Freaks List’ with a top speed of 21.43 miles per hour on the GPS and a 39-inch vertical jump. Jay Greeson and I previewed the Commodores for Southeastern 16 last week. Side Thought: Those being critical of Diego Pavia’s never-wavering confidence, which was on full display in Netflix’s ‘Any Given Saturday’ documentary, are either die-hard Tennessee fans (and therefore get a pass) or people that take L’s galore on a daily basis.
29-Kansas St.: If K-St. can beat Iowa St. in Week Zero, it should take a 5-0 record into Waco on Oct. 4. RB Dylan Edwards should get more touches in 2025, and that’s a good thing. Avery Johnson is one of the nation’s top dual-threat QBs.
30-Arkansas: The Hogs lost a lot of key pieces to the portal, but they countered with the country’s #16 transfer-specific class. They brought in 31 transfers, including five four-star imports, but 10 of their three-star transfers were four-star prospects coming out of high school. Translation: That’s 10 talented and motivated players who have underachieved in their collegiate careers so far. I’m not sure if the defense will be respectable but if it is, Arkansas will surprise some people as long as QB Taylen Green is healthy and Bobby Petrino is still calling the plays. I’m thinking the Hogs are going to have a lot of games that go ‘over’ their totals.
31-Texas Tech: Let’s give props to the Red Raider boosters who ponied up greenbacks galore to land the nation’s #2 transfer class. Joey McGuire’s team added 21 transfers that includes 13 four-star imports. Texas Tech has an elite group of WRs for QB Behren Morton, who threw for 3,325 yards with a 27/8 TD-INT ratio in 2024. With the exception of RB (#54) and in the secondary (#45), every position group is in the Top 22 of Steele’s National Unit Rankings. Joey McGuire’s team took a hit this past Saturday when starting RB Quinten Joyner went down with a season-ending injury.
32-TCU: QB Josh Hoover completed 66.5 percent of his throws for 3,949 yards with a 27/11 TD-INT ratio last season. The Frogs have a quality backup in Ken Seals, who has 22 career starts in the SEC. They found a way to go 9-4 last year despite being -6 in turnover margin. The word out of Las Vegas is that all of the money for TCU’s Week 1 game at UNC has been on the Frogs.
33-Iowa: I’ve only watched South Dakota St. transfer QB Mark Gronowski on some highlight clips, but he looks the part with good size and arm strength. He started 55 games in five years at the FCS level, throwing for 10,309 career passing yards with a 93/20 TD-INT ratio. As usual, the Hawkeyes will be elite in the trenches and on special teams. Steele’s National Unit Rankings have Iowa #8 on o-line, #8 on the d-line and #1 on special teams.
34-Utah: The Utes went 1-5 in six one-possession games, resulting in the program’s first losing season since 2013. QB play has been an issue in back-to-back seasons, but Kyle Whittingham signed Devon Dampier out of the portal. The New Mexico transfer QB was a first-team All-Mountain West Conference selection in 2024 when he had 1,166 rushing yards, 19 TDs and a 7.5 YPC average. The Utes bring back seven starters from a unit that gave up only 20.7 PPG despite a pedestrian offense that scored merely 23.6 PPG.
35-Pittsburgh: The Panthers started 7-0 last season before losing its last six games. QB Eli Holstein was fantastic in September and October before slumping down the stretch. RB Desmond Reid returns after garnering second-team All-American honors in 2024. Steele has Pitt #18 on the d-line and #5 at LB in his National Unit Rankings.
36-Washington: QB Demond Williams completed 26-of-32 passes for 374 yards and four TDs in a 35-34 loss to Louisville in the Sun Bowl. RB Jonah Coleman had 1,053 rushing yards, 10 TDs and a 5.5 YPC average in 2024. WR Denzel Boston is back after catching 63 balls for 834 yards and nine TDs. The Williams-Coleman-Boston trio is legit, but will the Huskies be good enough around them to improve on a 6-7 debut campaign from Jedd Fisch? Washington didn’t get any help from the Big Ten schedule makers. During a five-game stretch from late September through October, four of the Huskies’ opponents have two weeks to prepare when they aren’t coming off an open date. They also have to fly East three times for road assignments at Maryland, at Michigan and at Wisconsin.
37-USC: Lincoln Riley is on the hot seat after 8-5 and 7-6 seasons. The Trojans should start 4-0 before playing at Illinois in Week 5. I have USC with a 7-3 record pending a pair of swing games – vs. Michigan (with two weeks to prepare when UM hosts Wisconsin the week before) and at Nebraska. I suspect Riley needs eight regular-season victories to avoid a pink slip.
38-Nebraska: WR Dane Key has been one of the SEC’s most underrated players for years and gives QB Dylan Raiola a quality WR1. The Cornhuskers are 11-38 in their last 49 one-possession games, including a 2-5 mark last year. That has to change if Matt Rhule is going to get this program humming again.
39-Wisconsin: I thought Luke Fickell was a spectacular hire, but it hasn’t worked in his first two seasons. The Badgers have six games against opponents that are in the top 17 of my preseason rankings. I’m fading Wisconsin with Miami (OH.) +17.5 in Week 1.
40-Va. Tech: Brent Pry is on a boiling hot seat after the Hokies underachieved in 2024. Despite being +8 in turnover margin, they went 0-5 in one-possession games and finished 6-7 both SU and ATS. Va. Tech is 16-21 SU on Pry’s watch with a 1-12 record in 13 one-possession games. Yikes! The good news is that Kyron Drones is back. Drones needs to return to his 2023 form when he had a 17/3 TD-INT ratio, 818 rushing yards and five rushing scores.
41-Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights went 7-6 last year despite going 3-5 in eight one-possession games. RU has to play Oregon, Ohio St. and Penn St., but at Illinois is its only other significant underdog spot. In Greg Schiano’s second tour of duty, RU is 14-6-2 ATS as a road underdog.
42-Kentucky: Nine of 12 regular-season games are against foes that I have in my Top 28. The “easiest” SEC game is probably at Vandy on Nov. 22. However, it’s a terrible situation. The Commodores have two weeks to prepare, while the Wildcats will be playing their sixth game in six weeks and are in a look-ahead spot with arch-rival Louisville on deck.
43-Duke: Manny Diaz went 9-4 in his first season, beating arch-rival UNC at home and winning at NC St. and at Wake Forest. With a home win over Elon, that’s a 4-0 record against in-state opponents. The Blue Devils’ boosters ponied up to bring in Tulane transfer QB Darian Mensah, who threw for 2,723 yards with a 22/6 TD-INT ratio last year.
44-Cincinnati: I feel like I’m the captain of the Brendan Sorsby Fan Club, and I’m completely comfortable with that. Nose tackle Dontay Corleone has the best name in all of college football. He can play, too. Corleone was a first-team All-AAC pick in 2022, a second-team All-Big 12 selection in 2023 and a first-team All-Big 12 choice last year. He’s listed #14 on ‘Feldman’s Freaks List.’
45-North Carolina: I’m a big fan of South Alabama transfer QB Gio Lopez and if he gets hurt, veteran Max Johnson is a helluva #2 option. Unlike many others, I still think this is going to work out well for UNC with Bill Belichick. This debut season might not be impressive, but I won’t be surprised if the Tar Heels get to eight wins with a manageable schedule.
46-BYU: The loss of QB Jake Retzlaff probably cost this team 10 spots in these rankings. BYU announced on Aug. 19 that true freshman Bear Bachmeier will be its starting QB in Week 1 vs. Portland St.
47-FSU: The Seminoles went 1-10 against FBS foes last year. Their lone win, a 14-9 home triumph vs. California, came on a night when the Golden Bears had a 410-284 advantage in total yards and missed field goals from 36 and 38 yards out. Mike Norvell better hope QB Thomas Castellanos returns to his 2023 form. WRs Squirrel White and Duce Robinson were key additions via the portal.
48-Kansas: KU went 1-6 in seven one-possession games in 2024, but Lance Leipold’s team ripped off three straight wins over ranked teams in its last four contests. QB Jalon Daniels returns, but he lost star RB Devin Neal and his top-seven pass catchers are gone. Here’s my preview for Fresno St. at Kansas in Week Zero.
49-Boise St.: BSU went 12-2 SU and 8-5-1 ATS in 2024, with its only defeats coming vs. Penn St. (31-14) and at Oregon (37-34). The Broncos return 14 starters, seven on each side of the ball. QB Maddux Madsen (23/6 TD-INT ratio and five rushing TDs) is back along with TE Matt Lauter and WR Latrell Caples, but RB Ashton Jeanty and his 2,601 rushing yards and 29 TDs are off to the NFL.
50-Minnesota: RB Darius Taylor is a stud, but will he get any help from the passing game? I’m on Buffalo +17 at Minnesota in Week 1 (buy the hook if your number is 16.5). Here’s my preview of the Bulls and the Gophers.
50-Tulane: Retzlaff was a solid addition for Jon Sumrall, who knows the hell out of his ball.