After a 49-17 loss at Texas last season, Florida’s record fell to 4-5 ahead of back-to-back home games vs. a pair of ranked opponents in LSU and Ole Miss. Billy Napier’s record in three seasons at the helm was 15-19.
His tenure had been an unmitigated disaster. Most UF fans wanted him and AD Scott Stricklin gone. (Many still do.)
But something started to click at The Swamp vs. LSU. The defense started to get pressure on the quarterback, the running game came to life and true freshman DJ Lagway started making plays with his elite arm talent.
The result was a 27-16 win over LSU as a 3.5-point home underdog. One week later, the Gators beat ninth-ranked Ole Miss 24-17 as 13-point home underdogs to end the Rebels’ hopes of earning their first invite to the College Football Playoff. Next, they went to Tallahassee and drilled FSU, 31-11.
UF thumped Tulane 33-8 as a 10-point favorite in the Gasparilla Bowl to finish the season on a four-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread. The year was somewhat salvaged with an 8-5 SU record and a 9-4 ATS mark.
Optimism is high going into the 2025 campaign. Florida returns eight starters on offense and seven on defense. The Gators lost only 25 lettermen, the second fewest total in the SEC, and they return 40 lettermen.
Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have UF #10 at QB, #14 at RB, #18 at WR, #5 on the offensive line, #10 on the d-line, #25 at LB, #10 in the secondary and #13 on special teams.
According to the 247Sports Composite, Napier’s 2025 recruiting class is ranked #9 nationally with 34 new commits, including one five-star prospect and 17 four-star players. The class has only six transfers, including one four-star player and four transfers from Power-Four programs.
The transfer-specific imports are ranked just #116 nationally. Napier obviously felt good about his returning talent and its chemistry. He was clearly reluctant to alter that chemistry with a large number of veteran transfers.
I can respect that. However, with a star QB like Lagway, you would think that UF was in an ideal position to attract a couple of the top WRs in the portal.
Napier did grab one WR in four-star transfer J. Michael Sturdivant, who spent his first two seasons at California before spending the last two years at UCLA. He was ranked as the #25 WR in the portal.
In 2022 playing for Justin Wilcox at Cal, Sturdivant had 65 receptions for 755 yards and seven touchdowns. He played 13 games for the Bruins in 2023, catching 36 balls for 597 yards and four TDs.
Sturdivant played in 11 games last season, hauling in 22 catches for 315 yards and two TDs. He is ranked as the #37 WR available for the 2026 NFL Draft in Phil Steele’s magazine.
We’re left to assume that Napier only went for one WR from the portal due to his confidence in the incoming freshmen at the position. That’s the trio of Vernell Brown III, Dallas Wilson and Naeshaun Montgomery.
All three prospects enrolled early and participated in spring practice. Brown is a five-star recruit who was ranked as the nation’s #30 overall player in the 2025 class, the #6 WR and the #3 prospect from the state of Florida. He’s also a UF legacy.
Wilson is a four-star prospect ranked #35 nationally, #8 at WR and #4 in Florida by the 247Sports Composite. He had three TD catches in the Orange and Blue Game, UF’s annual scrimmage to close spring practice. Montgomery is also a four-star signee.
Lagway’s stats from his true freshman season don’t jump off the page. He started in seven of 12 games he played in, completing 59.9 percent of his passes for 1,915 yards with a 12/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Most importantly, though, the Gators posted a 6-1 record in his seven starts. The lone defeat came against Georgia when Lagway left the game in the second quarter when UF had the ball and a 10-3 lead.
The RB room is loaded with young talent. Jadan Baugh was UF’s leading rusher as a true freshman, producing 673 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 5.1 yards-per-carry average. His 55-yard TD run with 3:48 remaining put the win over LSU on ice.
One week later, Baugh had a 25-yard TD catch in the win over Ole Miss. He emerged on Oct. 19 in the Gators’ 48-20 win over Kentucky, rushing 22 times for 106 yards and five TDs.
Starting with the win over the Wildcats, Baugh produced 106, 64, 88, 65, 46, 81 and 70 rushing yards in UF’s final seven games.
Juco transfer RB Ja’Kobi Jackson had a solid season as well, rushing for 509 yards and seven TDs with a 5.4 YPC average. The staff also likes what they have in sophomore Treyaun Webb (21 carries for 98 yards and one TD last year), redshirt freshman KD Daniels (11 totes for 77 yards and one TD) and incoming freshmen Duke Clark and Byron Louis.
Even walk-on RB Anthony Rubio flashed his talent in the win over Tulane, rushing six times for 32 yards and one TD.
UF lost its top two WRs, Elijah Badger and Chimere Dike, to the NFL Draft, but Eugene ‘Tre’ Wilson is back healthy. Phil Steele’s magazine has him as a preseason third-team All-SEC selection and the #19 available WR for the 2026 NFL Draft.
As a true freshman in 2023, Wilson missed two games and parts of two others due to injuries. Nevertheless, he had 61 catches for 538 yards and a team-high six TDs. Wilson added 55 rushing yards and a 9.2 YPC average on only six attempts.
In 2024, Wilson had seven receptions for 50 yards in the season-opening home loss vs. Miami. During a Week 2 home win vs. Samford, he caught six balls for 141 yards and one TD, but he suffered an injury and missed UF’s next three contests.
Wilson returned in a 23-17 overtime loss at Tennessee with five catches for 35 yards. He had a 40-yard reception vs. Kentucky but sustained a season-ending injury. Although Wilson was granted a redshirt, it’s unlikely he’ll be in Gainesville for three more seasons.
As a redshirt freshman last year, Aidan Mizell played in seven games (three starts) and contributed 17 catches for 202 yards and two TDs. Tank Hawkins had seven receptions for 60 yards in a 24-13 win over UCF, but he finished his true freshman campaign with only 10 catches for 100 yards and one TD in just five contests.
Mizell and Hawkins are expected to be a lot more involved in 2025. If they don’t produce, it’ll be on Napier for not grabbing another veteran wideout from the portal (unless the freshmen, Dallas Wilson and Brown, make enough plays to be Lagway’s main targets outside of Tre Wilson and Sturdivant).
With Arlis Boardingham (18-128-2 TDs) transferring to Bowling Green, the TE position will be manned mostly by junior Hayden Hansen and Tony Livingston. Hansen started nine games last season, making 15 receptions for 207 yards and two TDs.
Livingston had 11 catches for 109 yards and two TDs. Redshirt freshman Amir Jackson and incoming freshman Micah Jones are also in the TE room.
The offensive line returns four starters and the fifth member, OT Bryce Lovett, played in all 13 games and started three times (at right guard) in 2024. This group is led by senior center Jake Slaughter, who is a preseason second-team All-American in Steele’s mag and is projected as the #1 center available in the 2026 NFL Draft.
According to Pro Football Focus, Slaughter has an overall PFF grade of 85.8 since 2023. He was the only Power Four center to have 80.0+ PFF grades as both a pass blocker and a run blocker last season.
Senior left tackle Austin Barber has started 27 games for the Gators in his first three years on campus. He’s a preseason second-team All-SEC choice in Steele’s mag, which has Barber as the #21 draft-eligible OT for the 2026 NFL Draft.
Senior Damieon George and junior Knijeah Harris will start at the guard positions. George, who began his career at Alabama but has been at UF the last two seasons, has 24 career starts with 11 of those coming at tackle. Harris started all 13 games in 2024.
Steele’s mag has George as the #39 available OT in the 2026 NFL Draft, while Harris is listed as the #23 OG. Like George, Lovett can play at OG or OT and will start this year at OT. Nevertheless, Lovett is ranked as the #34 available OG.
UF lost its top three tackers from last season when the defense gave up an average of 23.1 points per game. The Gators had been deplorable on defense from 2020-23, giving up an average of 30.8, 26.8, 28.8 and 27.6 PPG.
To be clear, giving up 23.1 PPG isn’t acceptable at UF. Hell, that improvement only had the Gators ranked #12 in the SEC in scoring ‘D.’ If Florida wants to have a big season, at least another field goal needs to be shaved off of that number.
Senior DT Caleb Banks is a preseason first-team All-SEC selection in Steele’s mag, and senior DE Tyreak Sapp is a preseason third-team All-SEC pick. Banks came on strong late in the season, recording three tackles, two forced fumbles, one sack and one fumble recovery in the win over LSU. A week later vs. Ole Miss, he had four tackles, four tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.
Sapp played in all 13 games, producing 47 tackles, 13 TFL’s, seven sacks, five QB hurries and a pair of forced fumbles. He had eight tackles, four TFL’s and one sack vs. LSU
Steele’s mag has Sapp ranked as the #13 available DE in the 2026 NFL Draft, while Banks is the #2 DT available. PFF ranked Sapp as the country’s #9 overall player on defense last year with a 90.4 grade, which is second-best among returning DEs. Banks has 53 pressures since 2023 to lead all returning Power Four interior defenders.
Senior EDGE George Gumbs could be poised for a breakout campaign after a solid first season in Gainesville. The transfer from No. Illinois recorded 35 tackles, eight TFL’s, five sacks, four QB hurries and two passes broken up.
Another player to watch on the d-line is sophomore DE LJ McCray, who had 13 tackles as a true freshman. Also, DT Jamari Lyons returns after missing all of last season with an injury sustained last August.
UF’s top LBs are junior Grayson ‘Pup’ Howard and a pair of true sophomores in Myles Graham and Aaron Chiles. Howard had 37 tackles, two TFL’s, two QB hurries and one sack after transferring from South Carolina.
Junior free safety Jordan Castell has started 24 times in his first two seasons at UF. He recorded 55 tackles, nine PBU, two TFL’s and one sack in 2024. Junior strong safety Bryce Thornton has 11 career starts with seven of those coming last year when he produced 41 tackles, three interceptions, three PBU and 1.5 TFL’s.
UF’s top CBs include Dijon Johnson, Devin Moore and Cormani McClain, who has reportedly bulked up considerably through his offseason work in the weight room. McClain, who was the nation’s #1 prep CB in the 2023 class, saw more playing time late in 2024 and had a pick-six vs. Kentucky.
Junior kicker Trey Smack was a third-team All-SEC selection last season when he drilled all 44 PATs and 18-of-21 field goals, including a long of 55 yards. He hit 17-of-21 FGs as a freshman and has never missed a PAT during his collegiate career.
Smack is a preseason third-team All-SEC pick in Steele’s mag and is also the #5 available kicker for the 2026 NFL Draft.
Punter Jeremy Crawshaw has departed after garnering third-team All-SEC honors in 2024. Michigan transfer Tommy Doman will be Crawshaw’s replacement. He started 27 games for the Wolverines the last two years, producing a 41.4 net punt average in 2023 and 37.2 net last season.
Long snapper Rocco Underwood was a first-team All-American selection in 2024.
**Betting Numbers**
FanDuel has UF’s season win total at 7.5 (‘under’ -132, ‘over’ +108). The Gators had 21/1 odds to win the SEC Championship on June 23, but FanDuel has reduced that number to 18/1.
Napier’s team has +370 odds to make the College Football Playoff and 36/1 odds to win the CFP. The 36/1 number that UF shares with Michigan is the 11th-shortest on the board.
Lagway has 18/1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy. Those are the seventh-shortest odds on the board.
When DraftKings opened its Games of the Year lines in early June, the Gators were 7.5-point road underdogs at LSU, 5.5-point road underdogs at Miami, 7.5-point home underdogs vs. Texas, 9.5-point underdogs vs. Georgia, 2.5-point home favorites vs. Tennessee and 10.5-point home ‘chalk.’
As of July 9, DraftKings had UF +6.5 at LSU, +4.5 at Miami, +7 vs. Texas, +8.5 vs. Georgia, -3 vs. Tennessee and -10.5 vs. FSU.
**The Schedule**
Most publications had UF’s 2024 schedule ranked as the nation’s toughest. Steele’s mag has the Gators with the 12th-toughest slate in 2025.
Napier’s team has six home games vs. Long Island, South Florida, Texas, Mississippi St., Tennessee and FSU. UF has five road assignments at LSU, Miami, Texas A&M, Kentucky and Ole Miss. Finally, there’s the annual showdown with UGA in Jacksonville.
Although there’s no doubt that it’s another daunting schedule with one less home game, there are some positives. For starters, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Miami’s overall rosters don’t appear to be as strong as they were in 2024, especially the Rebels and Hurricanes.
Another positive is that with only three exceptions – LSU, USF and Texas A&M – all of UF’s foes are breaking in new starting QBs.
PREDICTIONS: Florida will take a 2-0 record into Redstick to face LSU. If the Tigers lose at Clemson in Week 1, they’ll be a desperate team going into their Week 3 showdown against the Gators, who ended a five-game losing streak to LSU at The Swamp last season but haven’t tasted victory in Baton Rouge since 2016.
With a game at Miami on deck, I’m going to say that Napier’s bunch splits those two road outings, with a win over the ‘Canes more likely. That would leave UF 3-1 going into an Oct. 4 home date with Texas that’s followed by a trip to College Station.
Once again, I’m going to call for a split. If UF upsets the Longhorns, they’ll be in a vintage flat spot at Kyle Field the next week. If the Gators lose to Texas, I think they’ll knock off the Aggies.
That scenario would give UF a 4-2 record that’ll improve to 5-2 with a home win over Mississippi St. Next, the Gators will have two weeks off to prepare for UGA. Let’s skip that matchup for now and circle back to it momentarily.
UF will win at Kentucky on Nov. 8 ahead of a trip to Oxford. Like the UF-UGA game, let’s skip Ole Miss for now. Therefore, we have the Gators with a 6-2 record ahead of home dates vs. the Volunteers and Seminoles.
I like UF to win its last two home games, leaving it with an 8-2 record with ungraded games vs. Georgia and at Ole Miss. The Gators could sweep those games, go winless or get a split. Regardless, we have them at eight wins and ‘over’ their season win total of 7.5.
I’ll call for them to split those games against the Bulldogs and Rebels. That would give Florida a 9-3 record. Depending on how things shake out around the rest of the country, if one of those nine wins comes over Texas or Georgia, 9-3 might be enough for the Gators to sneak into the CFP.
**Brian’s Bets**
-Let’s risk two units to win 2.4 on UF to go ‘over’ 7.5 wins (+120 at DraftKings).
-I’ll risk 1.1 units to win one on the Gators +4.5 at Miami.
-I’ll risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units on UF +7 vs. Texas.
-Give me four units (risking 4.4) on UF -3 vs. Tennessee.
-Let’s risk 0.25 units on the Gators at +370 odds to make the CFP.
-Finally, I’ll go with 0.25 units that could net 4.5 units on Lagway to win the Heisman at 18/1 odds.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-For loyal readers and listeners that have noted my consistent criticism of Napier during the first three seasons of his tenure, you might be wondering why I seem to have suddenly changed my tune. The quick and easy one-word answer is LAGWAY. (More on him and the health of his shoulder below.)
-Even though he outcoached Lane Kiffin in perhaps the biggest game of Kiffin’s career last year, do I still consider Napier a knucklehead in terms of his in-game coaching decisions? Absolutely!
-Florida is 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games against Tennessee. The Volunteers haven’t won at The Swamp since 2003. In fact, they haven’t won in Gainesville with a QB not named Casey Clausen since 1971 (Clausen led UT to wins at The Swamp in 2001 and 2003).
-I have two other Heisman bets for 0.25 units apiece: Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson at 80/1 and Ga. Tech QB Haynes King at 90/1. As always, shop around for the best number. I got both of those numbers at DraftKings.
-PFF ranked UF’s d-line #4 nationally in 2024. PFF’s Max Chadwick has Sapp listed as his #7 edge rusher in the country for 2025.
-Steele’s mag has Castell ranked as the #8 available strong safety for the 2026 NFL Draft. Also, Moore is ranked #21 at CB and McClain is #40 at CB. Doman is #25 at punter.
-Napier’s three-year record at Florida is 19-19 SU and 20-18 ATS. In 23 games as an underdog on Napier’s watch, UF has compiled a 14-9 ATS record with eight outright wins. The Gators are 6-9 ATS with four outright defeats in 15 games as favorites during the Billy Napier Era.
-UF’s 2024 squad was +130 in net yards and +6 in turnover margin.
-The ‘over’ has cashed in three straight UF-UGA games and is 4-1 in the last five encounters.
-According to the 247Sports Composite, Florida’s 2026 recruiting class is ranked #16 nationally after getting a verbal commitment Monday from four-star LB Malik Morris. He is the 11th four-star prospect in the class that’s currently composed of 16 players. Morris, a 6-foot-1, 225-pound Lakeland High School product is ranked the #12 LB in the country and the #27 player in the state of Florida.
-As always when betting an ‘over’ on a season win total (I’m pointing this out if you’re tailing me on UF to go ‘over’ 7.5 wins or tailing me on Vandy ‘over’ 4.5 or 5.5 wins), it’s crucial that your QB stays healthy. And for those that don’t know, Lagway didn’t throw during spring practice. Now, he reportedly hasn’t had any setbacks since starting to throw three times a week in May. It’s widely expected that he’ll be 100 percent healthy by the start of camp next month. Whatever the case, you might want to consider going easy on your risk (units-wise) out of concern for Lagway’s shoulder.
-The best example I’ve had of getting screwed by a QB injury came with my wager on Fresno St. to go ‘over’ 8.5 wins in 2022. The Bulldogs won their opener and then lost 35-32 at home vs. Oregon St. when the Beavers scored a TD on the final play of the game. Then in Week 3, Fresno St. star senior QB Jake Haener was injured in a loss at USC. Without Haener the next week at UConn, the Bulldogs were still 23-point road favorites, but they lost a 19-14 decision. Haener was out again for a 40-20 loss at Boise St. the following week and the ‘over’ 8.5 wins bet was a loser in early October. So naturally, Fresno St. proceeded to win its next nine games, winning 28-16 at Boise St. (with Haener healthy) in the Mountain West Championship Game and 29-6 vs. Washington St. at the Los Angeles Bowl to finish 10-4 overall (but with only eight regular-season wins, which is all that counts for bets on season win totals).
-You can always check out more of my thoughts, picks and links to radio appearances, etc. on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
-Also, you can find more of my work on Southeastern 16’s YouTube channel. For example, here is last week’s pod with Jay Greeson and I previewing the 2025 Missouri Tigers.