Originally published on Friday, Aug. 8, at 5:23 p.m. Eastern.
Updated on Friday, Aug. 22, at 11:51 a.m. Eastern.
The second kickoff of the 2025 college football season will take place in Lawrence, where Kansas will host Fresno St. in one of four Week Zero games on Aug. 23.
As of Aug. 8, most books had KU installed as a 13.5-point home favorite. The total was 51 points, while the Bulldogs were +425 on the money line at Circa and +450 at South Point in Las Vegas.
For first-half bets, DraftKings had the Jayhawks as 7.5-point ‘chalk’ (at a -115 price) with a total of 26.5 (‘over’ -118). The Bulldogs had +320 odds to go into halftime with the lead.
DraftKings had KU -3.5 (-108 price) in the first quarter with a total of 9.5 (‘over’ -148) points.
UPDATE: As of Aug. 20, most spots had KU as a 12.5 or 13-point favorite with a total of 50.5 or 51. The Bulldogs were in the +350 to +400 (Westgate SuperBook) range to win outright. The Jayhawks were -7 in the first half at most shops, but they were -6.5 (at a -120 price) at DraftKings.
UPDATE #2: As of late Friday morning on Aug. 22, most spots had KU favored by 13 or 13.5 points. The Westgate SuperBook moved the Jayhawks from -12.5 to -13.5 on Thursday afternoon (8/21). South Point in Las Vegas has moved the total down to 49.5 points and Circa has adjusted it to 50, but most shops are still using 50.5.
Lance Leipold’s team finished the 2024 campaign with a 5-7 record both straight up and against the spread, ending its two-year run of postseason appearances. KU struggled to a 1-6 record in seven one-possession games.
The Jayhawks somewhat salvaged the disappointing season by ripping off three straight wins over ranked opponents in November, including a 45-36 win over 17th-ranked Iowa St. as a 2.5-point underdog. They also won a 17-13 decision at seventh-ranked BYU as 2.5-point ‘dogs and beat 16th-ranked Colorado 37-21 as 2.5-point ‘dogs.
However, with a chance to get bowl eligible in the regular-season finale, KU lost 45-17 at Baylor as a one-point road favorite.
Leipold’s 2025 squad returns 29 lettermen, but it lost 34. KU has five starters back on each side of the ball (10 total). The Jayhawks were +331 in net yards last season and were even (0) in turnover margin.
Jalon Daniels is back for a sixth season at quarterback. In 37 career games, he’s completed 61.3 percent of his passes for 6,751 yards with a 45/24 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 1,041 career rushing yards, 19 TDs and a 3.4 yards-per-carry average.
Daniels ranks second in program history in career passing yards behind only Todd Reesing. He struggled in the first five games of last season, throwing for 184 yards or fewer in each game while posting an abysmal 5/8 TD-INT ratio.
Daniels played much better down the stretch, though. He had 260, 247, 209 and 295 passing yards in the next four contests, running for one TD in each of those four outings.
Daniels was spectacular in a 42-14 win over Houston as a five-point home favorite, connecting on 16-of-21 throws for 247 yards and three TDs without an interception. He added 58 rushing yards and one TD on just seven attempts.
Daniels finished the year with 2,454 passing yards and a 14/12 TD-INT ratio. He had 447 rushing yards, six TDs and a 4.8 YPC average.
Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have the Jayhawks #37 at QB, #32 on the offensive line, #63 on the defensive line, #65 at LB and #60 on special teams. He has three KU players on his preseason All-Big 12 teams.
Senior center Bryce Foster, who was a second-team All-Big 12 selection last season after transferring from Texas A&M, is a preseason first-team All-Big 12 pick in Steele’s magazine. Junior DE Dean Miller is a preseason third-team All-Big 12 choice, and kicker Laith Marjan is a preseason second-team All-Big 12 selection.
Miller was a first-team All-Big 12 pick in 2024 when he produced 32 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, six sacks, four QB Hurries and three passes broken up. Marjan, a transfer from South Alabama, was a second-team All-Sun Belt selection last year when he buried 16-of-17 field-goal attempts for the Jaguars.
On Aug. 15, Leipold told the media, “Dean Miller hasn’t practiced much in the last couple of weeks, that’ll be a big question mark going into [the game vs. Fresno St].” However, Miller is listed as the starter on KU’s depth chart and there hasn’t been any more reporting on him possibly being held out. Therefore, the guess here is that Miller will be on the field.
Per the 247Sports Composite, KU’s 2025 recruiting class is ranked #61 nationally and #39 in terms of transfer-specific signees. There are 44 total commits, including 27 transfers. Fifteen of the 27 transfers are from Power-Four programs.
Daniels lost his top-seven pass catchers, so KU signed five WRs from out of the portal. WR Cam Pickett started nine games for Ball St. last year, garnering third-team All-MAC honors by catching 49 passes for 528 receiving yards and two TDs. Pickett also had 170 rushing yards, two TDs and a 10.0 YPC average on 17 attempts.
WR Emmanuel Henderson was a four-star prospect out of high school who signed with Nick Saban at Alabama as part of the Tide’s 2022 class. He had four catches for 82 yards in 2024.
KU also inked WR Bryson Canty, a 6-foot-2, 205-pounder who started 22 games in four seasons at Columbia. Canty was a first-team All-Ivy League selection last year when he had 43 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine TDs. He had 53 catches for 744 yards and six TDs in 2022.
Unfortunately for KU, Canty has missed a lot of camp this month due to a leg injury. In fact, he wasn’t even listed on the first depth chart, but Leipold told The Phog’s Jack Ritter on Monday (8/18) that Canty’s leg has improved recently.
“I expect Bryson to be available to dress for Saturday right now, just really limited on what he’s been able to do with the time. We’ll see how that progresses. But the last two practices have been highly encouraging.”
Another new Jayhawk WR from the portal is Levi Wentz, who started his career at Old Dominion but spent the last two seasons at Albany playing FCS ball. Wentz had 40 receptions for 621 yards and one TD in 2024.
KU will miss RB Devin Neal, who became the program’s all-time leading rusher with 4,343 career rushing yards after producing 1,266 yards, 16 TDs and a 5.8 YPC average as a senior last year. Neal was a sixth-round pick to the New Orleans Saints in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Even with the loss of Neal, the RB position should be a strength thanks to the presence of senior Daniel Hishaw, who came to Lawrence with Neal as part of the 2020 class. In four seasons at KU (he missed the entire 2021 campaign), Hishaw has 1,493 rushing yards, 18 TDs and a 5.3 YPC average. He also has 12 career catches for 165 yards and one TD.
Hishaw had his best season in 2023 when he started five games when Neal was injured. He finished the year with 626 rushing yards, eight TDs and a 5.2 YPC average.
KU added depth at the position by signing former Iowa RB Leshon Johnson from out of the portal. Johnson was limited to three games due to injuries at Iowa last season, but he had 821 rushing yards, one TD and a 4.8 YPC average in 2023.
The portal produced some help on defense as well. LB Trey Lathan started 13 games for West Virginia last year and was the team’s third-leading tackler. Lathan recorded 79 tackles, nine TFL’s, three QB Hurries, two sacks and one forced fumble.
Texas DE transfer Justice Finkley is expected to be a starter. In three years with the Longhorns, Finkley registered 26 tackles, four TFL’s, 2.5 sacks and one forced fumble.
LB Joseph Sipp was a first-team All-MAC selection at Bowling Green in 2024. He contributed 79 tackles, 12 TFL’s, seven sacks, two PBU and one fumble recovery last year.
Cornerback DJ Graham joins the Jayhawks from Utah St. He started nine of 12 games for the Aggies last year, recording 42 tackles, 2.5 TFL’s, two PBU and two interceptions.
Graham has missed most of camp this month dealing with an injury. It sounds like he’ll play on Saturday, but he’s listed behind CB Austin Alexander on the depth chart.
“DJ had an excellent spring,” Leipold said earlier this week. “But he’s just back to getting going again. He was out there [Monday, Aug. 18]. He made a few nice plays out there today. He’s getting more back in the swing of it.”
KU has compiled a 7-5 ATS record in 12 games as a home favorite during Leipold’s first four years at the helm, but it struggled to a 1-3 ATS mark in four such spots last season.
Fresno St. has a new head coach in 52-year-old Matt Entz, who won two national championships and took North Dakota St. to the playoffs in all five seasons of his head-coaching tenure at the FCS level. Entz served under Chris Klieman, the current head coach at Kansas St., as North Dakota St.’s defensive coordinator before replacing him as the HC when he left for Manhattan.
After the 2023 season, Entz resigned at North Dakota St. to join Lincoln Riley’s staff at USC as linebackers coach.
Entz takes over a team that finished 6-7 SU and 6-6-1 ATS under interim HC Tim Skipper, who replaced Jeff Tedford after he stepped down due to health concerns last summer. The Bulldogs lost to No. Illinois 28-20 in overtime at the Potato Bowl in Boise.
They went 2-5 in seven one-possession games in 2024. It was the team’s first losing season since 2019.
Fresno St. faced a pair of Power-Four programs last year, going 0-2 SU but 2-0 ATS. The Bulldogs lost 30-10 at Michigan as 21-point road underdogs in the season opener. They dropped a 20-13 decision to UCLA as 7.5-point home underdogs in their regular-season finale.
Entz’s squad returns 32 lettermen and lost 26. There are five starters back from an offense that averaged 26.1 points per game. Four starters return from a defense that allowed an average of 24.8 PPG.
QB Mikey Keene transferred to Michigan, so Rice transfer EJ Warner will take over as the new starter under center. Warner is the son of Kurt Warner, the NFL Hall of Fame QB. He played at Temple for two seasons before transferring to Rice.
Warner started 11 games at Rice last year, completing 62.0 percent of his passes for 2,710 yards with a 17/13 TD-INT ratio. He started 10 times for Temple in 2023, connecting on 57.5 percent of his throws for 3,076 yards with a 23/12 TD-INT ratio. Warner has 8,814 career passing yards and a 58/37 TD-INT ratio.
The Bulldogs have their two leading rushers returning. Sophomore Bryson Donelson had 462 rushing yards, three TDs and a 6.0 YPC average in 2024. He added 21 catches for 94 yards and one TD.
Senior RB Elijah Gilliam had 466 rushing yards, eight TDs and a 3.9 YPC average last season. He also had 32 receptions for 203 yards. However, Arizona St. transfer RB Rayson Luke is listed as RB2 on this week’s depth chart.
Entz’s 2025 recruiting haul is ranked #107 nationally and its transfer-specific group is ranked #105, according to the 247Sports Composite. It was the sixth-ranked class among Mountain West Conference schools.
There are 43 total commits, including 21 transfers. Twelve of those players from the portal hail from Power-Four programs.
Fresno St. lost its top-three pass catchers, so it’s hoping to get production from four WRs signed out of the portal. The Bulldogs will benefit from the return of WR Josiah Freeman, who was limited to four games due to an injury last year.
In those four contests, Freeman had eight catches for 95 yards and two TDs. In 2023, he hauled in 19 receptions for 249 yards and one TD. Freeman is a preseason first-team All-Mountain West selection in Steele’s mag.
Donelson is a preseason second-team All-MWC pick at RB in Steele’s mag, while TE Richie Anderson is a preseason third-team All-MWC choice. Anderson started seven games as a freshman last year, producing 18 catches for 147 yards.
Steele’s mag has Fresno St. LB Jadon Pearson as a first-team All-MWC selection, while safety Camryn Bracha, CB Al’zillion Hamilton and DE Korey Foreman are preseason second-team All-MWC picks.
Pearson is a transfer from Utah St. who has been named one of the team’s captains. In 10 games for the Aggies last year, Pearson produced 42 tackles, three TFL’s and two PBU. Hamilton has 22 career starts in four seasons with the Bulldogs. He recorded 52 tackles, five TFL’s, two forced fumbles, two interceptions for 82 return yards, one sack and was second in the MWC in PBU with 13.
Foreman was a five-star prospect coming out of high school in the 2021 class. He was named the #1 prospect in the country by USA Today, and the 247Sports Composite had him as the nation’s #2 player in the class.
Foreman was a four-star transfer to Fresno St. in the 2024 class. In 12 games last year, he had 24 tackles, five TFL’s, four QB hurries, three forced fumbles, three sacks and two PBU.
Bracha was limited to four games due to an injury last season, contributing 19 tackles, three PBU, one TFL and one interception. In 2023, he had 38 tackles, three TFL’s, 1.5 sacks and one PBU.
In Steele’s National Unit Rankings, Fresno St. is #68 at RB, #42 in the secondary and #39 on special teams. In Steele’s MWC Unit Rankings, the Bulldogs are #7 (out of 12 MWC schools) at QB, #5 at RB, #9 at WR, #8 on the o-line, #5 on the d-line, #7 at LB, #1 in the secondary and #2 on special teams.
FOX will provide television coverage at 6:30 p.m. Eastern.
PREDICTION: Now that the number is back up to 13.5, I’m keeping a close eye on it. I have a small opinion (will risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units) on Fresno St. if I can get +14. Again, I have to have +14 to make a play on the Bulldogs. I’ll continue to be patient and see if it moves to +14, or I’ll look to get that number (or better) with a live or halftime bet.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-I have Kansas #48 in my Preseason Power Rankings.
-KU has to play its home games in Kansas City last year while David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium was renovated. Here’s a fresh look at the improved venue.
-FanDuel has KU’s season win total at 6.5 (‘over’ -164, ‘under’ +134). The Jayhawks have 15/1 odds to win the Big 12 Championship Game. Those are the eighth-shortest odds on the board.
-FanDuel has Fresno St.’s season win total at 6.5 (‘over’ -118, ‘under’ -104). The Bulldogs have 12/1 odds to win the MWC Championship Game. Those are the fourth-shortest odds on the board.
-The best Week Zero game will take place in Dublin, Ireland, where Kansas St. and Iowa St. will collide. Here’s my preview of this Big 12 matchup with my ATS prediction.
-Steele’s mag has KU’s Daniels ranked as the #25 QB available for the 2026 NFL Draft. Hishaw is ranked as the #24 RB, Sipp is #53 at inside linebacker, Graham is #41 at CB and Marjan is #21 at kicker.
-Fresno St’s Foreman is ranked as the #60 DE available for the 2026 NFL Draft in Steele’s mag. Hamilton is #60 at CB.
-FanDuel has Daniels with 100/1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy.
-Here’s my SEC Preseason Power Rankings with analysis for all 16 schools.
-Here’s my Week 1 preview of Toledo at Kentucky.
-You can check out my in-depth preview of the 2025 Florida Gators here. I recommended several bets pertaining to Billy Napier’s fourth squad at UF.
–My preview of the 2025 Vanderbilt Commodores, who are led by star QB Diego Pavia.