Originally published on Friday, Aug. 8, at 5:23 p.m. Eastern.
Updated on Friday, Aug. 22, at 9:58 a.m. Eastern.
The Week Zero game that’ll kick at noon Eastern in Dublin, Ireland, will feature a pair of Big 12 teams this season, as Kansas State and Iowa State will square off at Aviva Stadium on Aug. 23.
As of Aug. 5, most books had Kansas St. listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 49.5. The Cyclones were in the +130 to +140 range on the money line.
DraftKings had the Wildcats -2.5 (at a -115 price) for first-half wagers with a total of 24.5. Bettors had a +130 option on Iowa St. to go into halftime with the lead.
For first-quarter bets, DraftKings had Kansas St. -0.5 points for a +114 return. The total was 9.5 points with the ‘over’ at a -135 price.
On Aug. 7, Circa moved Kansas St. from -3 to -4. By Friday afternoon on Aug. 8, most spots had the Wildcats as 3.5-point ‘chalk.’
UPDATE: By Aug. 19, most books had moved Kansas St. back to -3 and the total was still at 49.5 points.
UPDATE: By Aug. 22, K-St. remained a three-point favorite, but the total was up to 50.5 or 51.
Chris Klieman is entering his seventh season on the job off a 9-4 straight-up record and a 4-9 against-the-spread mark in 2024. Kansas St. edged Rutgers 44-41 in the Rate Bowl, but the Scarlet Knights covered the spread as seven-point underdogs.
The Wildcats started last year with a 7-1 record, but they lost three of their last four games, including a 29-21 defeat at 17th-ranked Iowa St. in the regular-season finale for both schools.
Matt Campbell’s team covered the number as a two-point home favorite, while the 50 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 52-point total.
Rocco Becht threw two touchdown passes without an interception and ran for another score to lead the Cyclones to victory on a cold night in Ames. Abu Sama had 81 rushing yards on 15 carries, while Carson Hansen ran for 58 yards on 13 attempts.
In the losing effort, QB Avery Johnson completed 12-of-28 throws for 220 yards and three TDs without an interception. He added 64 rushing yards on 13 totes, and WR Jayce Brown had three catches for 106 yards and two TDs. TE Garrett Oakley had four receptions for 78 yards and one TD.
Iowa St. has won back-to-back games in this rivalry and four of the last five head-to-head meetings. The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in the last five matchups.
Kansas St. finished 2024 at +1,085 in net yards, but it was -1 in turnover margin. The Wildcats struggled to a 4-8 ATS record with three outright losses in 12 games as favorites. They went 3-6 ATS in nine games as single-digit ‘chalk.’
According to the 247Sports Composite, Klieman and his staff brought in the nation’s #45 overall recruiting class and the #56 group in terms of transfer-specific imports. There are 43 commits in the class with a pair of four-star prospects. There are 17 transfers, including 11 from Power-Four programs.
Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have Kansas St. #22 at QB, #29 at RB, #36 at WR, #41 on the offensive line, #27 on the defensive line, #20 at LB, #50 in the secondary and #66 on special teams.
The Wildcats have 51 returning lettermen and lost 23. They have five starters back on each side of the ball (10 total).
Kansas St. scored at a 30.8 points-per-game clip last season. In his first year as the starter following the departure of Will Howard, Johnson completed 58.3 percent of his passes for 2,712 yards with a 25/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He had 605 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 5.4 yards-per-carry average.
RB DJ Giddens was a fifth-round selection by the Indianapolis Colts after rushing for 1,343 yards to finish his collegiate career third in program history with 3,087 career rushing yards. Junior Dylan Edwards will take over as the starting RB in 2025.
After transferring from Colorado after a solid freshman campaign, Edwards had 605 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 7.4 YPC average last season. He added 19 catches for 133 yards and two TDs.
Joe Jackson will be RB2 for Kansas St. as a sophomore. He had 227 rushing yards, one TD and a 5.8 YPC average in 2024.
Brown is a preseason fourth-team All-Big 12 selection in Phil Steele’s magazine and will be Johnson’s favorite target once again. He had team-highs for the Wildcats last year in catches (47), receiving yards (823) and TD receptions (5).
In Steele’s mag, Oakley is a preseason second-team All-Big 12 choice at TE. He had 22 catches for 236 yards and five TDs last season.
Two starters return on an offensive line that’ll be anchored by senior center Sam Hecht, who was a second-team All-Big 12 pick in 2024. Steele has Hecht as a preseason second-team All-Big 12 selection and as the #18 center available in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Five offensive linemen were added via the portal. OT George Fitzpatrick, OT Terrence Enos and OG JB Nelson are expected to have starting roles along with returning OG Taylor Poitier, who started all 13 games for the Wildcats last year. Fitzpatrick and Nelson were four-star prospects coming out of high school, but they were dubbed as three-star transfers.
Fitzpatrick played in 15 games at Ohio St. in 2024, while Nelson played in 16 games for Penn St. Enos started five games at Pittsburgh over the last two seasons.
Kansas St.’s defense gave up an average of 23.4 PPG in 2024. This unit returns its two leading tacklers in LB Austin Romaine, who was a second-team All-Big 12 pick, and safety VJ Payne. Steele’s mag has Romaine as a preseason third-team All-American and a preseason first-team All-Big 12 selection, while Payne is a third-team All-Big 12 choice.
Romaine recorded 96 tackles, eight tackles for loss, four QB hurries, three forced fumbles, two sacks and a pair of passes broken up last year. Payne contributed 64 tackles, four TFL’s, four PBU, two forced fumbles and two interceptions.
Iowa St. had never posted a double-digit win total in program history until going 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS last year. Campbell’s team bounced back from a 45-19 loss to Arizona St. at the Big 12 Championship Game to edge Miami 42-41 as a 3.5-point underdog at the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
The Cyclones went 2-1 against ranked teams and 5-1 in six one-possession games, including a 20-19 win at 21st-ranked Iowa as 2.5-point road underdogs in Week 2. They were +872 in net yards and +9 in turnover margin, scoring an average of 31.1 PPG.
Steele’s National Unit Rankings have Iowa St. #16 at QB, #27 at RB, #60 at WR, #30 on the o-line, #54 on the d-line, #35 at LB, #15 in the secondary and #46 on special teams. Campbell’s club returns 53 lettermen and lost 26. Seven starters are back on offense and six return on defense.
Per the 247Sports Composite, Iowa St.’s 2025 recruiting class is ranked #57 nationally and #59 in terms of transfer additions. There are 30 total commits, including a pair of four-star players. There are eight imports from the portal, one of which is a four-star transfer with three players coming in from Power-Four programs.
Becht now has 27 career starts to his credit. He was a third-team All-Big 12 pick in 2024 when he connected on 59.4 percent of his throws for 3,505 yards with a 25/9 TD-INT ratio. Becht added 318 rushing yards and eight TDs, averaging 3.2 YPC.
The four-star transfer is WR Chase Sowell, who had 34 receptions for 678 yards and three TDs in nine games at East Carolina in 2024. In 24 career games, Sowell has 83 catches for 1,323 yards and four TDs.
Sowell and UCF transfer Xavier Townsend are going to try to fill the massive shoes left behind by WRs Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, who were both day-two selections to the Houston Texas in the 2025 NFL Draft. Townsend started 14 of 29 career games for the Knights from 2022-24, catching 66 balls for 521 yards and four TDs. He also had 278 rushing yards, one TD and an 8.7 YPC average.
Junior TE Gabe Burkle returns after hauling in 26 receptions for 296 yards and one TD last year. TE Benjamin Brahmer, a 6-foot-7, 250-pound junior, is also back. He had 10 catches for 179 yards and one TD in 2024.
The Cyclones gave up an average of 22.9 PPG last season. They bring back three all-conference picks from last year who are preseason first-team All-Big 12 selections in Steele’s mag. We’ll start with senior safety Jeremiah Cooper, a first-team All-Big 12 pick in 2024 when he recorded 48 tackles, eight PBU, two interceptions and one TFL. Cooper is also a preseason fourth-team All-American in Steele’s mag.
CB Jontez Williams was a second-team All-Big 12 choice last year when he produced 46 tackles, five PBU, four interceptions and two TFL’s. He’s a preseason third-team All-American in Steele’s mag. DT Domonique Orange garnered fourth-team All-Big 12 honors in 2024 when he had 24 tackles, five TFL’s, three QB Hurries, one sack and one PBU.
LB Will McLaughlin was limited to 15 tackles and 1.5 TFL’s in just four games before redshirting due to an injury last year. He was a fourth-team All-Big 12 pick in 2023 when he registered 46 tackles, seven TFL’s, two interceptions, one sack and one fumble recovery.
Campbell owns a 28-18-2 ATS record in 48 games as an underdog during his first nine seasons at the helm. The Cyclones are 5-2 both SU and ATS in their last seven games as ‘dogs, including a 42-35 win at Kansas St. as a 10-point road ‘dog in the 2023 regular-season finale.
UPDATE: On Monday (8/18), Klieman revealed three injuries for the Wildcats on the defensive side of the ball. Senior free safety Gunner Maldonado and third-year sophomore LB Asa Newsom are ‘questionable,’ while junior free safety Colby McCalister is ‘doubtful.’
UPDATE on Friday, 8/22: Maldonado has been upgraded to ‘probable,’ but McCalister has been ruled ‘out’ and Newsom has been downgraded to ‘doubtful.’ The Cyclones have announced that projected starting right guard Trevor Buhr is ‘out.’ Buhr played in 13 of 14 games and started six times as a third-year sophomore in 2024. Iowa St. LB Beau Goodwin is ‘questionable.’ He recorded 24 tackles, three TFL’s, two PBU and one QB Hurry last season.
Maldonado is a transfer from Arizona who started 25 games from 2022-24, but he was limited to four games last year due to an injury. He has recorded 177 career tackles, six forced fumbles, five TFL’s, four interceptions and three fumble recoveries for 109 return yards and one TD.
McCalister started in three of 12 games he played in for Kansas St. last season, contributing 24 tackles, one fumble recovery and one PBU. In 13 games in 2023, he had 27 tackles, two TFL’s, one sack, one PBU and one forced fumble.
Newsom played in four games as a freshman but took a redshirt in 2023. In 11 career contests for the Wildcats in two seasons, he’s registered nine tackles and one TFL.
PREDICTION: This is an excellent opener for college football between two programs that are equally matched, typically overachieve and are well coached. I have Iowa St. #27 in the Top 50 of my Preseason Power Rankings with Kansas St. at #29. Therefore, I’ll take the points with the team that’s recently had its way (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) in this rivalry. Give me Iowa St. +3 for 1.5 units, risking 1.65 units. Let’s also risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units on Sowell’s receiving yards to go ‘over’ 57.5 (more on Sowell below).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
–Kansas St. released its depth chart Monday.
–Iowa St. also released its depth chart.
-I’m backing Iowa St. for 0.25 units to win the Big 12 Championship Game for a +1300 (or 13/1) payout (FanDuel). Let’s also risk 0.25 units on Buffalo at +550 odds to win the MAC Championship Game.
-In six of Sowell’s last seven games for ECU last year, he had 75, 50, 117, 138, 82, 67 and 72 receiving yards. In other words, he went ‘over’ 57.5 by at least 9.5 receiving yards in six of those seven contests. I’m confident he’s going to be Becht’s favorite target in 2025.
–Here’s the injury report via the Big 12. I noted the most important ones above in bold. The majority of these guys for both teams are true freshmen (or redshirt freshmen) that weren’t expected to have an impact in the opener.
-FanDuel has Kansas St., Utah and Arizona St. listed as the +550 co-favorites to win the Big 12 Championship Game. Baylor has the fourth-shortest odds at +600, followed by Texas Tech (+650), TCU (+850) and Iowa St. (13/1). The rest of the list looks like this: Kansas (14/1), BYU (22/1), Colorado (30/1), Houston (30/1), Cincinnati (35/1), Arizona (40/1), West Virginia (40/1), Oklahoma St. (55/1) and UCF (70/1).
-FanDuel has Kansas St.’s season win total at 8.5 flat (-110 either way). The book has the Cyclones’ win total at 7.5 (‘under’ -142, ‘over’ +116).
-FanDuel has Iowa St.’s odds at +980 to make the CFP, while Kansas St.’s number is +440.
-If you think K-St. QB Avery Johnson is going to produce a lot of rushing yards, you’ve got prop options at FanDuel. He’s at +200 odds to gain 70 rushing yards or more, +280 for 80 or more and +390 for 90 or more.
-FanDuel has a plethora of alternate lines available as well. For instance, gamblers can take Iowa St. -2.5 for a +148 payout or -6.5 for a +230 return. On the flip side, bettors can go with K-St. -6.5 for a +134 payout or K-St. -9.5 for a +200 return.
-KSU’s Jayce Brown has an ‘over/under’ of 52.5 flat (-114 either way) for his receiving yards prop, while ISU’s Sowell is at 57.5 flat. ISU’s Townsend is at 38.5 flat.