Originally published on 8/14/25 at 3:14 p.m. Eastern.
Updated on 8/30/25 at 11:05 a.m. Eastern.
Alabama and Florida State will square off at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee to open a critical season for both head coaches. These schools haven’t met since the 2017 opener when the Crimson Tide thumped the Seminoles 24-7 as a 7.5-point favorite in Atlanta, prompting Jimbo Fisher to start thinking about leaving for College Station.
As of Aug. 14, most books had Kalen DeBoer’s team installed as a 13 or 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 50.5. The ‘Noles were in the +385 to +425 (DraftKings) range on the money line.
FanDuel had Alabama as a 3.5-point favorite at a -104 price for first-quarter wagers. The Tide was -7.5 (+102) in the first half.
FSU’s Team Total was 17.5 points (‘under’ -122 , ‘over’ -108) at FanDuel, while Alabama’s Team Total was 31.5 (‘under’ -118, ‘over’ -112).
UPDATE #1: Alabama could be without three key players Saturday at FSU. Despite those injuries, the line on Aug. 27 was -14 at most shops. There were still a few spots at -13.5, while the total was 50.5 points and the ‘Noles were +400 on the money line. As of Aug. 30, most spots were using Alabama -13.5, and the total had been moved down to 48.5 points.
UPDATE #2: Alabama senior offensive guard Jaeden Roberts was cleared to play on Friday (8/29) after spending the last two weeks and change in concussion protocol.
DeBoer’s first Alabama squad last year was a double-digit favorite 10 times, compiling a 5-5 spread record with three outright losses. The Tide finished the season 9-4 straight up and 7-6 against the spread, but it lost two of its last three games.
Alabama was on a three-game winning streak, ranked seventh nationally and favored by 14 points going into Norman to face a 5-5 Oklahoma team in Week 13. The Tide only needed to win its last two regular-season games to secure a berth in the College Football Playoff.
The Sooners weren’t having it, though, as they dealt out a 24-3 pimpslap. After winning the Iron Bowl, Alabama lost a 19-13 decision to a short-handed Michigan squad that pulled the upset as a 16.5-point underdog at the ReliaQuest Bowl.
It was the first time Alabama finished with a single-digit win total since Nick Saban’s first season in 2007. Therefore, DeBoer is naturally under intense scrutiny to produce a CFP appearance in Year 2, especially with the 12-team format that’s now in place.
Likewise, Mike Norvell is feeling the heat after a disastrous 2024 campaign for the ‘Noles, who have lost 11 of their last 13 games since improving to 13-0 with a win over Louisville in the 2023 ACC Championship Game. Even worse, they’ve been outscored 399-188 in those 13 contests.
If we break it down to the 12 games against FBS competition (which discounts a 41-7 win over Charleston Southern, an FCS foe, last season), then FSU has been outscored 392-147. The lone win over an FBS opponent was a 14-9 win over California last year.
The Golden Bears beat themselves in that game, missing a pair of field goals from 36 and 38 yards out. They scored only nine points despite getting into the red zone five different times. Cal had a 23-17 advantage in first downs and had 410 total yards compared to 284 for FSU.
The ‘Noles went 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in 2024. They were -1,398 in net yards and -16 in turnover margin.
Norvell’s sixth team returns 39 lettermen and lost 40. The defense brings back six of its top-nine tacklers from a unit that gave up an average of 28.0 points per game. The offense brings back just two starters, but that’s a good thing after averaging a pedestrian 15.4 PPG.
According to the 247Sports Composite, FSU’s 2025 recruiting class is ranked #18 nationally and the transfer-specific group is #6. There are 23 transfers, including 19 from Power-Four programs and eight four-star players. Two of the three-star transfers (Oklahoma transfer RB Gavin Sawchuk and UNC transfer WR Gavin Blackwell) were four-star prospects coming out of high school.
The four-star transfers are CB Jeremiah Wilson (Houston), WR Squirrel White (Tennessee), DE Jayson Jenkins (Tennessee), center Luke Petibon (Wake Forest), OT Micah Pettus (Ole Miss), WR Duce Robinson (USC), DE James Williams (Nebraska) and DE Deamontae Diggs (Coastal Carolina).
Perhaps the most critical incoming transfer is Thomas Castellanos, the former Boston College quarterback who led the Eagles to a 28-13 win at FSU as 16.5-point road underdogs last year. I chronicled Castellanos’ career at BC and plenty of remarks he had about his new team’s showdown vs. Alabama back in late June.
Other notable incoming transfers are senior left tackle Gunner Hansen, who started 35 games at Vanderbilt over the last three years, and TE Randy Pittman, who had 32 receptions for 416 yards and two TDs for UCF in 2024. There are two other potential starters from the portal in DT Deante McCray (Western Ky.) and LB Elijah Herring (Memphis).
White and Robinson were huge gets for Norvell. Robinson, a five-star prospect coming out of high school, had 39 catches for 747 yards and seven TDs in two seasons for the Trojans. In three years with the Vols, White played in 38 games and hauled in 131 receptions for 1,665 yards and six TDs. He snagged 67 balls for 803 yards and two TDs in 2023.
Petibon logged 22 starts in 38 career games during his four seasons with the Demon Deacons, while Pettus started 29 times in three years for the Rebels. With these additions, FSU’s offensive line has 129 career starts.
Robinson is a preseason second-team All-ACC selection in Phil Steele’s magazine, and Pettus is a preseason fourth-team All-ACC pick.
Wilson started eight of 12 games for the Cougars last year, recording 24 tackles, four tackles for loss, four passes broken up and four interceptions for 62 return yards and one TD. He’s a preseason third-team All-ACC choice in Steele’s mag.
Williams played in 12 of 13 games for the Cornhuskers last season, contributing 14 tackles, six TFL’s, five sacks and four QB Hurries. Jenkins registered nine tackles, four TFL’s, two sacks and one forced fumble, and Diggs produced 34 tackles, seven TFL’s, five sacks and two PBU for Coastal Carolina.
Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have FSU #43 at QB, #34 at RB, #22 at WR, #28 on the offensive line, #25 on the defensive line, #34 at LB, #29 in the secondary and #72 on special teams.
It’s never a good thing when a safety leads a team in tackles, but that’s exactly what Shyheim Brown did last year when he had 70 tackles, two PBU and one TFL. LB Blake Nichelson was FSU’s second-leading tackler with 52 tackles and four TFLs.
However, Brown and Nickelson might not even start in Week 1. Safety KJ Kirkland appears on track to start ahead of Brown, while Herring seems poised to get the nod ahead of Nickelson. Kirkland recorded 46 tackles, two PBU, one TFL and one QB Hurry last year.
Herring played at Tennessee for two seasons before transferring to Memphis. In 11 games for the Tigers, he had 60 tackles, eight TFL’s, four PBU, 3.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, two interceptions and one fumble recovery. Herring played in 13 games for the Vols in 2023, producing 80 tackles and four TFL’s.
DT Darrell Jackson is a preseason second-team All-ACC selection in Steele’s mag. He had 32 tackles, five TFL’s, four QB Hurries, 3.5 sacks, one forced fumble and one PBU in 2024.
One of the biggest developments out of camp in Tallahassee has been the emergence of true freshman RB Ousmane Kromah, a 6-foot, 205-pound product of Lee County High School in Leesburg, GA. Kromah was a four-star prospect, according to the 247Sports Composite, who was the #76 player in the nation, the #4 RB and the #10 player out of the Peach State in the 2025 class.
Kromah might unseat RB Roydell Williams as FSU’s starter. Williams went down with a season-ending injury last year after rushing for only 53 yards on 26 attempts (2.0 yards-per-carry average). He played at Alabama for four seasons before transferring. Williams has 1,218 career rushing yards, 13 TDs and a 4.7 YPC average.
Sawchuk started 11 games in three seasons with the Sooners, rushing for 977 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC. He had 744 rushing yards, nine TDs and a 6.2 YPC average in 2023.
Alabama returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense, including eight of its top-10 tacklers from a unit that gave up an average of 17.4 PPG. That was the Tide’s best defense since 2017.
DeBoer’s team returns 38 lettermen and lost 30. Alabama was +1,172 in net yards and +7 in turnover margin last year, outscoring its opponents by a combined score of 439-226.
Steele’s National Unit Rankings have the Tide #36 at QB, #7 at RB, #4 at WR, #9 on the o-line, #6 on the d-line, #10 at LB, #2 in the secondary and #45 on special teams. Pro Football Focus has Alabama’s o-line ranked #1 in the nation.
Per the 247Sports Composite, DeBoer’s second recruiting haul is ranked #4 in the country and #21 in terms of transfer-specific imports. There are 33 total commits, including three five-star prospects and 20 four-star players. There are 12 transfers with six from Power-Four programs and four four-star players.
As expected, Ty Simpson was named the starting QB earlier this week. Simpson, who is in his fourth season in the program, was a five-star prospect out of Westview HS in Martin, TN., in the 2022 class. The 247Sports Composite had him ranked as the #26 overall player in the class, the #3 QB (behind only Cade Klubnik and Conner Weigman) and the #2 prospect from the Volunteer State.
Simpson has played sparingly in 16 career games. His only significant snaps that weren’t during mop-up duty came in a 17-3 win at South Florida in 2023. He completed 5-of-9 throws for 73 yards and had one rushing TD against the Bulls.
Simpson has connected on 29-of-50 career passes (58.0%) for 381 yards with a 0/0 TD-INT ratio. He has 130 career rushing yards, three TDs and a 5.9 YPC average.
Simpson has one of the nation’s premier WRs in Ryan Williams, who had 48 receptions for 865 yards and eight TDs as a true freshman in 2024. He added 53 rushing yards and two TDs on only four attempts (12.0 YPC).
WR Germie Bernard is back for his senior campaign. He came with DeBoer from Washington and caught 50 balls for 794 yards and two TDs last year. The likely third starter at WR is Miami transfer Isaiah Horton, who had 56 catches for 616 yards and five TDs with the Hurricanes in 2024.
Jam Miller, the Tide’s starting RB, is ‘out’ injured until at least late September. He started seven of 13 games last season, producing 668 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 4.6 YPC average. Miller has played in 40 career games, rushing for 1,092 yards and 10 TDs with a 5.0 YPC average. He has 21 career receptions for 227 yards and two TDs.
Steele has Williams, OT Kaydn Proctor and center Parker Brailsford as preseason first-team All-American selections. OG Jaeden Roberts is a preseason third-team All-American choice.
On the other side of the ball, senior LB Deontae Lawson and DT Tim Keenan are first-team All-Americans in Steele’s mag. Senior CB Domani Jackson and junior safety Keon Sabb are preseason third team and preseason fourth-team All-SEC selections, respectively.
Lawson was a second-team All-SEC pick last season when he recorded 76 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, four PBU, two sacks, one forced fumble and one interception. Keenan contributed 40 tackles, 7.5 TFL’s, 2.5 sacks, two QB Hurries and one PBU.
Jackson was a fourth-team All-SEC choice in 2024 when he had 52 tackles, seven PBU, two TFL’s, a pair of interceptions and one forced fumble. Sabb had 39 tackles, four PBU and two interceptions.
The four-star transfers are Horton, DT Kelby Collins (Florida), CB Cam Calhoun (Utah) and LB Nikhai Hill-Green (Colorado). Hill-Green produced 82 tackles, 12 TFL’s, four PBU, two interceptions and two sacks for the Buffaloes last year.
In two seasons with the Gators, Collins contributed 29 tackles, two TFL’s, 1.5 sacks and one forced fumble. He was limited to six games due to injuries in 2024. Calhoun had 21 tackles, nine PBU, one interception and one TFL for the Utes in 11 games.
The incoming five-star freshmen are QB Keelon Russell, OL Michael Carroll and CB Dijon Lee.
FSU is 4-6 ATS with two outright victories in 10 games as a double-digit underdog in Norvell’s first five seasons at the helm. The ‘Noles have a 4-5 ATS record with two outright wins in nine games as home ‘dogs on Norvell’s watch.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-I might change my mind between now and kickoff, but this game is a pass for me from a gambling standpoint. Like I’ve been saying for months, I’ll have a better idea about this 2025 Alabama squad at halftime of Week 1. Until I see Simpson up against live bullets, I really have no idea what to expect out of him. Maybe he’ll be Mac Jones? If so, Alabama is going to be a top-five team and a legit national-title contender. Maybe he’ll be Jake Coker? And yes, I know Coker helped the Tide win a national title, but I don’t think the parts around Simpson are on the level that Coker enjoyed around him.
–UPDATE #3: The above statement remains true for the side and total, but I’ve decided to make a play on a player prop from FanDuel. I’ll risk one unit to win 1.16 units on Ryan Williams to go ‘over’ 80 receiving yards for a +116 payout.
-I have Alabama #9 in my Preseason Power Rankings.
-FanDuel has already posted alternate spreads for this matchup. For instance, if you’re smelling a blowout, you can take Alabama -20.5 for a +180 return or Alabama -24.5 for a +285 payout. On the flip side, bettors can back FSU +7.5 for a +148 return and FSU +3.5 for a +260 payout.
-FSU sophomore CB Ja’Bril Rawls made a sick one-handed interception at practice on Thursday. Rawls is a projected starter on the opposite side of Wilson. He had 14 tackles last year.
-According to reports out of Tallahassee earlier this week, junior reserve safety Conrad Hussey is no longer with the program. He started three games in 2024, recording 18 tackles. Hussey had one start and 22 tackles as a freshman in 2023.
-FanDuel has Alabama as a 4.5-point underdog (at a -118 price) for its Week 5 showdown at Georgia. The Tide is +134 on the money line, and the total is 52.5 points. DeBoer’s team has won nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings in this rivalry, including last year’s 41-34 win as a one-point home underdog.
-In other Games of the Year lines, FanDuel has Alabama -22.5 vs. Vanderbilt, -11.5 vs. Tennessee, -6.5 vs. LSU, -12.5 vs. Oklahoma and -5.5 at Auburn. DraftKings has the Tide -7.5 at South Carolina.
-FanDuel has Alabama with 11/1 odds to win the national title. Those are the fourth-shortest odds on the board. DeBoer’s squad has +480 odds to win the SEC Championship Game, and it has a season win total of 9.5 (‘over’ -112, ‘under’ -108).
-FanDuel has FSU with 400/1 odds to win the national championship. The ‘Noles are 30/1 to win the ACC Championship Game. Their season win total is 7.5 (‘under’ -205, ‘over’ +164).
-FanDuel has FSU +6.5 vs. Miami and +172 on the money line for this in-state showdown at Doak Campbell on Oct. 4. The ‘Noles will be playing their third game in three weeks, but the ‘Canes will be coming off an open date and have two weeks to prepare. They snapped FSU’s three-game winning streak in the series with a 36-14 win last season.
-FanDuel has FSU +16.5 (-105) at Clemson on Nov. 8. The ‘Noles are +520 on the money line, and the total is 55.5 points.
-DraftKings has FSU as a 12.5-point road underdog at Florida in the regular-season finale.
–Check out my latest podcast with Jay Greeson for Southeastern 16, as we preview the 2025 Vanderbilt Commodores.