I usually don’t make multiple bets on who wins the Heisman Trophy each year, but I have done so this summer ahead of the 2025 campaign.
Why, you ask? Well, for starters, I think it’s a wide-open race without an obvious favorite. In fact, the ‘chalk’ is Texas redshirt sophomore quarterback Arch Manning, who only has two career starts on his resume.
Manning is the +700 favorite at FanDuel, and the next-shortest odds belong to LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier (+800), Clemson QB Cade Klubnik (+900), Ohio St. WR Jeremiah Smith (+1300 or 13/1), Penn St. QB Drew Allar (14/1) and Ohio St. QB Julian Sayin (15/1).
Four players – Florida QB DJ Lagway, Arizona St. QB Sam Leavitt, South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers and Oklahoma QB John Mateer – share 19/1 odds.
Let’s go with one unit on Lagway to win the Heisman at 19/1 odds. As a true freshman, he saved Billy Napier’s job by sparking the Gators to a four-game winning streak to close the season, including home wins over #21 LSU (27-16 as 3.5-point underdogs) and #9 Ole Miss (24-17 as 13.5-point ‘dogs).
Lagway’s stats certainly don’t jump off the page. He completed 59.9 percent of his passes for 1,915 yards with a 12/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Lagway is mobile, although his 101 rushing yards and 2.0 yards-per-carry average don’t indicate that. But remember, he was playing with a hamstring injury in UF’s last three games.
Nevertheless, his elusiveness in the pocket was on full display in the wins over LSU and Ole Miss. When Lagway took the field against LSU at The Swamp, he was only two weeks removed from the hamstring injury that caused him to be carted off the field vs. Georgia.
NFL scouts certainly took note of Lagway’s incredible arm talent throughout his debut season in Gainesville. His toughness and leadership was evident, too. More than anything, though, it was easy to sense how much belief he gave his teammates.
Florida posted an atrocious 9-17 record in the first 26 games of Napier’s tenure vs. Power Five competition (P5 instead of P4 because UF lost to Oregon St. in the 2022 Las Vegas Bowl), but the Gators went 6-1 in Lagway’s seven starts in 2024. The lone defeat came vs. Georgia when he left the game with UF in possession of the ball with a 10-3 lead late in the second quarter.
There are two question marks on the decision to make this bet or not. First, will Lagway be able to stay healthy? Secondly, will the Gators win enough games for him to be in Heisman contention?
I think the answers coincide with each other. If the answer is ‘yes’ to the first question, then it’s ‘yes’ again on the second.
Lagway didn’t throw at all during spring practice. The reasoning for that from Napier was to rest his shoulder. He injured his throwing shoulder in high school, and it’s been reported that he’ll likely need surgery at some point.
However, the medical strategy has been rest and rehab and to push back going under the knife (if it’s eventually necessary) as long as possible. Lagway resumed throwing three times a week in May and there haven’t been any setbacks.
The star signal caller expressed full confidence in his health at SEC Media Days this week. He said he’s 100-percent healthy and ready to go when training camp starts in two weeks.
There are also plenty of high-profile matchups on UF’s schedule that are likely to have Heisman implications. Lagway and the Gators play at LSU against its star QB Nussmeier in Week 3. Assuming Miami QB Carson Beck (30/1 odds) is healthy in Week 4, the Hurricanes will take on UF in South Florida.
After the Gators get an open date, they’ll face Manning and Texas at The Swamp on Oct. 4. Whether Georgia QB Gunner Stockton (35/1) and Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons (40/1) will be in Heisman contention remains to be seen, but UF faces UGA in Jacksonville on Nov. 1 and travels to Oxford on Nov. 15.
Napier’s team closes the regular season at home with back-to-back showdowns vs. Tennessee and FSU.
We should also point out that Napier inked a pair of big-time WR recruits in UF’s 2025 recruiting class. Vernell Brown III is a five-star prospect, while Dallas Wilson is a high four-star player. Wilson has great size and had three TD catches in the Orange and Blue Game to conclude spring practice.
Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have the Gators #10 at QB, #14 at RB, #18 at WR and #5 on the offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, UF has the country’s #5 overall offense and #4 offensive line.
Let’s risk 0.2 units on Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson at 80/1 odds (DraftKings). Many probably forget that Robertson was a four-star recruit out of Texas who was signed by Mike Leach at Mississippi St. ‘The Pirate’ had Robertson selected as his QB of the future in Starkville before his tragic passing.
After redshirting in 2021 and playing in only five games in 2022 behind Will Rogers, MSU’s all-time leader in career passing yards, Robertson decided to transfer to Baylor after Leach died in December of 2022.
The Bears limped to an abysmal 3-9 record in 2023. Like his team, Robertson struggled in the first four starts of his career.
Things went differently for him and Dave Aranda’s squad in 2024. Baylor posted an 8-5 straight-up record and an 8-4-1 against-the-spread mark. The offense went from averaging 23.1 points per game in 2023 to a 34.4 PPG average. New offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, the former head coach at Texas St., was a big reason why with his up-tempo scheme.
Robertson started 10 times in the 12 games he played in, with the Bears going 7-3. He connected on 62.8 percent of his passes for 3,071 yards with a 28/8 TD-INT ratio. Robertson added 230 rushing yards, four TDs and had a 3.7 YPC average, garnering fourth-team All-Big 12 honors.
Steele’s preseason magazine has Baylor pegged to win the Big 12. His National Unit Rankings have the Bears #19 at RB, #21 at WR and #23 on the offensive line.
Robertson’s two favorite targets return, in addition to TE Michael Trigg, who was a second-team All-Big 12 pick in 2024 when he had 30 catches for 395 yards and three TDs. Steele had WR Josh Cameron as a fourth-team All-Big 12 choice last year and has him as a preseason second-team All-Big 12 selection for 2025.
Cameron hauled in 52 receptions for 754 yards and 10 TDs in 2024, while WR Ashtyn Hawkins had 45 catches for 567 yards and five TDs last season.
Steele has RB Bryson Washington as a preseason first-team All-Big 12 pick. He produced 1,028 rushing yards, 12 TDs and a 5.9 YPC average last year, and he also caught 22 balls for 217 receiving yards and one TD.
The Bears are two-deep in the backfield with backup RB Dawson Pendergrass, who had 671 rushing yards, six TDs and a 5.5 YPC average in 2024. He’s also a threat in the passing game, as he had 11 catches for 103 yards and one TD.
Robertson, who only figures to get better in his second season in Spavital’s offense, could vault into the Heisman picture extremely early in the process. Baylor has three showcase games in the first four weeks of the season.
The Bears host Auburn in their opener before playing at SMU, a College Football Playoff participant in 2024 that has a Heisman contender of its own in QB Kevin Jennings (30/1), in Week 2. Then in Week 4, Baylor will face another 2024 CFP team (Arizona St and QB Sam Leavitt) in Waco.
Let’s also risk 0.2 units on Ga. Tech QB Haynes King at 90/1 (DraftKings). Steele’s National Unit Rankings have the Yellow Jackets #6 at QB, #13 at RB, #17 at WR and #46 on the o-line.
King was outstanding in 2024, completing 72.9 percent of his throws for 2,114 yards with a 14/2 TD-INT ratio. He’s one of the nation’s best playmakers with his legs, rushing for 587 yards, 11 TDs and a 4.7 YPC average.
In 2023, King had 2,842 passing yards with a 27/16 TD-INT ratio, so his reduction from 16 to only two picks was quite impressive. He had 737 rushing yards, 10 TDs and a 6.1 YPC average two seasons ago. His 37 combined TDs led the ACC and ranked eighth in the country.
Although King lost a stud WR in Eric Singleton to Auburn via the transfer portal, Brent Key brought in another dude from the portal. That would be Eric Rivers, who was a first-team All-Conference USA selection in 2024 when he had 62 catches for 1,172 yards and 12 TDs.
Ga. Tech returns senior WR Malik Rutherford, who had 62 receptions for 702 yards and three TDs last year. RB Jamal Haynes is one of the ACC’s best, rushing for 944 yards and nine TDs with a 5.6 YPC average in 2024. He also had 28 catches for 166 yards and three TDs.
King has some early opportunities to enter the Heisman conversation, including the season opener at Colorado in primetime on ESPN at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. The bigger spotlight on the Yellow Jackets will come in Week 3, though, when they host Clemson.
If Dabo Swinney’s team beats LSU in Week 1, the Tigers will undoubtedly be a top-five team when they come to Bobby Dodd Stadium on Sept. 13. There’s also the regular-season finale vs. Georgia that’ll be a standalone game on Friday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
In its 44-42 loss at UGA in eight overtimes last season, King torched the Bulldogs for 303 passing yards and two TDs without an interception. He also had 110 rushing yards and three TDs on 24 attempts.