
TB @ LAD






Positive Match Player Stats for Rays vs Dodgers
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mookie Betts ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Dodger Stadium as the 3rd-best stadium in the league for right-handed home runs.
On average, the fence height at Dodger Stadium is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.
Mookie Betts will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Alexander in today’s game.
Mookie Betts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.
Dodger Stadium grades out as the #3 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all parks are found in Dodger Stadium.
Dylan Carlson’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (22.7°) is quite a bit higher than his 15° figure last season.
Taylor Walls hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
Taylor Walls’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (32° over the last two weeks) is considerably higher than his 18.3° seasonal mark.
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (8.0) may lead us to conclude that Taylor Walls has had bad variance on his side this year with his 0.0 actual HR/600.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kevin Kiermaier, Chris Taylor, Teoscar Hernandez).
Tyler Alexander’s fastball velocity over his last 3 starts (89.9 mph) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (88.8 mph).
Tyler Alexander’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (65.7% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
The #3 ballpark in the game for boosting home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.
Bobby Miller’s 96.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.6-mph decline from last year’s 98.4-mph figure.
Bobby Miller’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2225 rpm) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (2304 rpm).
When it comes to his BABIP ability, Teoscar Hernandez is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.
Batting from the opposite that Tyler Alexander throws from, Teoscar Hernandez will have an advantage today.
When estimating his batting average skill, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Freddie Freeman is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.
Freddie Freeman projects as the 12th-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Freddie Freeman will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Over the past 14 days, Freddie Freeman’s 57.9% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 49.2%.
Teoscar Hernandez will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.
Teoscar Hernandez has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 14.6% seasonal rate to 20% in the past week’s worth of games.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.
Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.
Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage over Bobby Miller in today’s game.
Hitters such as Kevin Kiermaier with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tyler Alexander who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
Kevin Kiermaier will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Kevin Kiermaier has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91-mph average to last season’s 87.4-mph average.
Over the last week, Kevin Kiermaier’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91-mph over the course of the season to 101.9-mph in recent games.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.
Josh Lowe is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Josh Lowe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bobby Miller today.
Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.
Brandon Lowe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Brandon Lowe has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 102.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 95.4-mph.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run talent.
Christopher Morel is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Smith in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.
Will Smith is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.
Batting from the opposite that Tyler Alexander throws from, Will Smith will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Josh Lowe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Over the past two weeks, Josh Lowe’s 53.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.8%.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Christopher Morel has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .190 BA is considerably lower than his .220 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 81st percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.
Gavin Lux hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
Extreme flyball bats like Gavin Lux tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Alexander.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.
Yandy Diaz is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.
Yandy Diaz’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (4.5° in the past 14 days) is quite a bit higher than his 0.2° seasonal mark.
Alex Jackson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Alex Jackson has been unlucky this year, notching a .202 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .278 — a .076 disparity.
Mookie Betts will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
Mookie Betts has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 95-mph in the past 7 days.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Taylor Walls’s true offensive talent to be a .285, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .037 deviation between that figure and his actual .248 wOBA.
Posting a 1.64 K/BB rate this year, Taylor Walls has shown impressive plate discipline, grading out in the 91st percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 13th-best batter in the game when it comes to his batting average skill.
Despite posting a .320 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yandy Diaz has experienced some negative variance given the .025 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .345.
The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
It may be wise to expect better results for the Los Angeles Dodgers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
When estimating his home run skill, Alex Jackson ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
When it comes to his home run ability, Teoscar Hernandez ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Will Smith will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.
Gavin Lux will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
Over the last 7 days, Gavin Lux’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.7% up to 12.5%.
Utilizing Statcast metrics, Yandy Diaz ranks in the 76th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .265.
Posting a 2.02 K/BB rate this year, Yandy Diaz has demonstrated strong plate discipline, placing in the 77th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alex Jackson, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel, Kameron Misner).
Negative Match Player Stats with Rays vs Dodgers
Mookie Betts is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the 4th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games today.
Typically, hitters like Mookie Betts who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tyler Alexander.
Mookie Betts has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 12.5% rate last season has lowered to 5.9% this season.
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.370) provides evidence that Mookie Betts has experienced some positive variance this year with his .390 actual wOBA.
As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Dylan Carlson will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Bobby Miller in this game.
Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Dylan Carlson in today’s matchup.
Dylan Carlson’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 92.4-mph figure last season has dropped off to 88.9-mph.
Compared to his seasonal mark of 22.7°, Dylan Carlson’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls has dropped significantly in recent games (18.2° in the past 14 days).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Walls in the 9th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.
Taylor Walls is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.
As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Taylor Walls will bat from his worse side against Bobby Miller in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Taylor Walls in today’s matchup.
Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Tyler Alexander is projected to throw 81 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least on the slate today.
Tyler Alexander will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.
Among all starters, Tyler Alexander’s fastball velocity of 88.8 mph grades out in the 3rd percentile this year.
The 5th-weakest projected offense on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Bobby Miller will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats in all categories.
Bobby Miller has compiled a .337 BABIP this year, a sign that he has been one of the unluckiest hurlers in Major League Baseball on balls in play with better performance likely coming.
Tampa Bay Rays bats jointly rank among the worst in MLB this year ( 3rd-worst) as it relates to their 87.9-mph average exit velocity.
Teoscar Hernandez has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Over the past week, Teoscar Hernandez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal mark of 95.8 mph to 71 mph.
Over the past 7 days, Teoscar Hernandez’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.4%.
Tyler Alexander will hold the platoon advantage against Freddie Freeman today.
In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Freddie Freeman’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal mark of 91.7 mph to 86.7 mph.
In the past 7 days, Freddie Freeman’s 6.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 20.3%.
This year, Brandon Lowe has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 12% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.
Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Brandon Lowe in today’s game.
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Kevin Kiermaier ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Kevin Kiermaier is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.
Hitting from the same side that Tyler Alexander throws from, Kevin Kiermaier will be in a tough position today.
Kevin Kiermaier has recorded a .244 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 1st percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
20% of the time that Josh Lowe has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been pulled from the game early.
Josh Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
Over the last week, Josh Lowe’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.4% down to 0%.
Josh Lowe’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 92.9-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 83.9-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
Tyler Alexander will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shohei Ohtani in today’s game.
In the last 14 days, Shohei Ohtani’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 20.1% down to 12.8%.
Shohei Ohtani’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 99.3-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 95.3-mph in the last two weeks.
As it relates to his home run ability, Kevin Kiermaier ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (8.7) may lead us to conclude that Kevin Kiermaier has experienced some positive variance this year with his 11.9 actual HR/600.
Kevin Kiermaier’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, falling from 12.9% on the season to 5.6% over the past two weeks.
Batting from the same side that Bobby Miller throws from, Christopher Morel faces a tough challenge today.
Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Christopher Morel in today’s game.
There has been a decrease in Christopher Morel’s average exit velocity this season, from 91.9 mph last year to 89.2 mph now, Christopher Morel’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 94.4-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 84.4-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
Typically, hitters like Will Smith who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tyler Alexander.
Over the past week, Will Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.1% down to 0%.
Will Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last season to this one, decreasing from 42.1% to 34%.
Gavin Lux is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.
Hitting from the same side that Tyler Alexander throws from, Gavin Lux will have a tough challenge in today’s game.
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (10.8) suggests that Gavin Lux has had some very good luck this year with his 14.1 actual HR/600.
Batting from the same side that Bobby Miller throws from, Yandy Diaz faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.
Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.7%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.
Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.
Yandy Diaz has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 7.1% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Jackson in the 4th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.
Alex Jackson is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in today’s game.
When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Alex Jackson has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 36% of the time.
Batting from the same side that Bobby Miller throws from, Alex Jackson meets a tough challenge in today’s game.
Ranking in the 82nd percentile, Tyler Alexander has notched a 4.13 K/BB rate this year.
Taylor Walls’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, going from 18.1% to 13.9%.
Alex Jackson will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.
In his previous start, Bobby Miller wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out and was only able to post 1 Ks.
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bobby Miller has used his secondary pitches 5.5% less often this season (46.4%) than he did last year (51.9%).
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