Todays Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Astros vs Reds Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Spencer Steer is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best stadium in the majors for right-handed home runs.

The weather forecast projects the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (34.7% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average.

Great American Ball Park profiles as the #2 venue in baseball for lefty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Jason Heyward will have the handedness advantage over Nick Lodolo today.

Jason Heyward pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.4% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.

Mauricio Dubon has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest RF dimensions in MLB.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Ben Gamel will have an advantage today.

Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

In MLB, Great American Ball Park’s left field fences are the 5th-shallowest.

Jeremy Pena has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 5.6% seasonal rate to 10.8% in the past two weeks.

Justin Verlander has averaged 94.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 85th percentile.

Justin Verlander’s 2402-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 83rd percentile among all starting pitchers.

When assessing his batting average ability, Yainer Diaz is projected as the 16th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Yainer Diaz has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 6th-best park in the game for left-handed batting average.

Will Benson will have the handedness advantage against Justin Verlander in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Will Benson will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Will Benson has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 12.7% seasonal rate to 25% over the last week.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.

Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage against Nick Lodolo today.

Victor Caratini is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Victor Caratini has put up a .268 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Ty France has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Tyler Stephenson has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

Tyler Stephenson will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

T.J. Friedl is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.

Hitting from the opposite that Justin Verlander throws from, T.J. Friedl will have the upper hand in today’s game.

T.J. Friedl pulls many of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Yainer Diaz ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Jose Altuve is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Julian Aguiar will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats in all categories.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

When estimating his BABIP skill, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Ty France ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

As it relates to his home run ability, Will Benson ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 82nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Ben Gamel has been hot lately, cruising to a .364 wOBA over the past 7 days.

Grading out in the 79th percentile, Jason Heyward has posted a .283 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jose Altuve ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s estimation, Justin Verlander’s overall pitching skill grades out in the 82nd percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball currently.

Cincinnati Reds hitters jointly rank in the cellar of the majors this year ( 2nd-worst) as it relates to their 87.8-mph average exit velocity.

Grading out in the 83rd percentile, Victor Caratini has put up a .336 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Placing in the 78th percentile, Victor Caratini has posted a .433 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Julian Aguiar in the 20th percentile as it relates to his overall pitching skills.

The 5th-best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Houston Astros.

The Houston Astros have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward

Negative Match Player Stats with Astros vs Reds

Hitting from the same side that Justin Verlander throws from, Spencer Steer will have a tough challenge today.

Over the last week, Spencer Steer’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%.

Spencer Steer’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 91.6-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 76.6-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

Over the past 14 days, Spencer Steer’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (2.4°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 11.7°.

Spencer Steer has notched a .263 BABIP this year, placing in the 18th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jason Heyward in the 8th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Jason Heyward is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jason Heyward in today’s game.

Last season, Jason Heyward had a launch angle of 12.1° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this season he experienced a significant decline to just 7.7°.

Hitting the ball to all fields is a key skill for batting average that Jason Heyward has struggled with this year, as evidenced by his checking in at the 2nd percentile on THE BAT X’s Spray Score.

When assessing his home run talent, Mauricio Dubon ranks in the 15th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Mauricio Dubon is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

Nick Lodolo will have the handedness advantage over Mauricio Dubon in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Mauricio Dubon in today’s game.

Mauricio Dubon’s launch angle recently (1° over the last week) is considerably worse than his 14.6° seasonal angle.

Ben Gamel is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Ben Gamel will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Ben Gamel’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, falling from 21.9% on the season to 18.8% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

An inconsistent launch angle is usually an indicator of bad hitting skills, and Ben Gamel has been very inconsistent with his in recent games, putting up a 20° launch angle standard deviation over the past two weeks.

When estimating his home run ability, Jeremy Pena ranks in the 21st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nick Lodolo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeremy Pena today.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jeremy Pena in today’s matchup.

Jeremy Pena’s launch angle recently (-1° in the last 14 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 7.1° seasonal figure.

Jeremy Pena has exhibited weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 15th percentile with a 4.19 K/BB rate.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yainer Diaz (the Astros’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be a weak pitch framer.

Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Justin Verlander today.

Justin Verlander’s slider usage has dropped by 5.9% from last year to this one (25.3% to 19.4%) .

Hitting from the same side that Nick Lodolo throws from, Yainer Diaz will have a tough matchup today.

Yainer Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

From last year to this one, Yainer Diaz’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 21.6% to 11.9%.

When it comes to plate discipline, Yainer Diaz’s skill is quite poor, posting a 4.3 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 14th percentile.

Will Benson’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 5th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Will Benson is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

Will Benson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 32% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.

Will Benson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.270) suggests that Will Benson has been lucky this year with his .292 actual wOBA.

Today, Yordan Alvarez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.8% rate (90th percentile).

Yordan Alvarez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his batting average, Yordan Alvarez has been lucky this year. His .312 rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .290.

Victor Caratini’s BABIP ability is projected in the 25th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In today’s game, Victor Caratini is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.5% rate (85th percentile).

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Victor Caratini today.

Victor Caratini has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Victor Caratini’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal figure of 91.6 mph to 87.1 mph.

Hitting from the same side that Justin Verlander throws from, Ty France will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.

Ty France has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 7.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Ty France has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph dropping to 80.9-mph in the past 7 days.

In the last 7 days, Ty France’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.9%.

Tyler Stephenson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

Justin Verlander will hold the platoon advantage against Tyler Stephenson in today’s matchup.

Tyler Stephenson’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last season to this one, falling from 48.3% to 42.1%.

Tyler Stephenson has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 25.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 18.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

T.J. Friedl’s BABIP ability is projected in the 7th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In the past 14 days, T.J. Friedl’s 31.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 39.5%.

T.J. Friedl has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 24.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly inflated relative to his 16.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Based on Statcast metrics, T.J. Friedl is in the 15th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .220.

Placing in the 20th percentile, T.J. Friedl has put up a .358 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year.

Batting from the same side that Nick Lodolo throws from, Jose Altuve will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jose Altuve today.

Jose Altuve’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 86.2-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 84.2-mph in the past two weeks.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 13.7°, Jose Altuve has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.1°) in the last 14 days.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.275) provides evidence that Jose Altuve has been lucky this year with his .298 actual batting average.

When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Julian Aguiar in the 11th percentile among all SPs in the game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julian Aguiar to throw 62 pitches today (least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Houston Astros with a 19.9% underlying K%.

In the last 7 days, Elly De La Cruz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.9% down to 0%.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 10.4°, Elly De La Cruz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.8°) over the past two weeks.

Elly De La Cruz has been lucky this year, compiling a .355 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .333 — a .022 deviation.

Will Benson has recorded a .285 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 17th percentile.

Mauricio Dubon’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 14.8% to 11.5%.

Yordan Alvarez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, decreasing from 19.5% on the season to 6.7% in the past 7 days.

Over the past two weeks, Tyler Stephenson’s 7.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.8%.

Jose Altuve has been lucky this year, notching a .345 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .328 — a .017 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the best ballpark in the league for home runs.

Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.

Grading out in the 9th percentile, T.J. Friedl has posted a .205 batting average this year.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.317) implies that Tyler Stephenson has been lucky this year with his .347 actual wOBA.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 8°, Victor Caratini has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2.6°) over the last 14 days.

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